Choose a fight to analyse
MF
EB
Fiorot vs BlanchfieldMain Card · Women'S Flyweight
JB
VL
Buckley vs LuqueMain Card · Welterweight
CW
BS
Weidman vs SilvaMain Card · Middleweight
NR
SD
Ruziboev vs DumasMain Card · Middleweight
KN
BA
Nelson vs AlgeoMain Card · Featherweight
CN
RM
Njokuani vs McKeeMain Card · Welterweight
NL
JE
Landwehr vs EmmersPreliminary Card · Featherweight
VJ
LG
Jandiroba vs GodinezPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight
JA
HB
Arce vs BurnsPreliminary Card · Catchweight
DB
CM
Buzukja vs MatthewsPreliminary Card · Featherweight
IA
AT
Aslan vs TurkaljPreliminary Card · Light Heavyweight
JM
AP
Malkoun vs PetroskiPreliminary Card · Middleweight
CL
AP
Loughran vs PachecoPreliminary Card · Bantamweight
EB
Fiorot vs BlanchfieldMain Card · Women'S Flyweight
JB
VL
Buckley vs LuqueMain Card · Welterweight
CW
BS
Weidman vs SilvaMain Card · Middleweight
NR
SD
Ruziboev vs DumasMain Card · Middleweight
KN
BA
Nelson vs AlgeoMain Card · Featherweight
CN
RM
Njokuani vs McKeeMain Card · Welterweight
NL
JE
Landwehr vs EmmersPreliminary Card · Featherweight
VJ
LG
Jandiroba vs GodinezPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight
JA
HB
Arce vs BurnsPreliminary Card · Catchweight
DB
CM
Buzukja vs MatthewsPreliminary Card · Featherweight
IA
AT
Aslan vs TurkaljPreliminary Card · Light Heavyweight
JM
AP
Malkoun vs PetroskiPreliminary Card · Middleweight
CL
AP
Loughran vs PachecoPreliminary Card · Bantamweight
BEST PRICE
Prophecy read
Nelson v Algeo
Featherweight
Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
The edge on this fight is Pro-onlyPro unlocks our fair line, the EV% and which side we back — plus AI deep research on every fight.
Go Pro →
New here? Create a free account for the full leaderboard & bet tracker
Tale of the tape
the matchup, side by side
Nelson 17-6-1
VS
18-9 Algeo
5'11"
height
6'0"
155 lb
weight
146 lb
71"
reach
73"
35
age
37
Switch
stance
Switch
2.7
strikes landed / min
5.9
44%
striking accuracy
51%
3.6
strikes absorbed / min
4.4
61%
striking defence
47%
2.5
takedowns / 15 min
1.0
31%
takedown accuracy
50%
56%
takedown defence
55%
1.0
submissions / 15 min
0.1
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation
Locked our pick, the fair line & EV are Pro-only
Go Pro →
Analyst tape
every extracted call on this fight
TD
The Rambling Dad picks Kyle Nelson VALUE
“Kyle Nelson wins this by decision”
The Rambling Dad picks Kyle Nelson VALUE
“Kyle Nelson wins this by decision”
TM
The MMA-Holes picks Kyle Nelson
“this guy knows how to win a Kyle Nelson win uh”
The MMA-Holes picks Kyle Nelson
“this guy knows how to win a Kyle Nelson win uh”
ZP
Zlatan's Fight Picks picks Bill Algeo
“I think Bill Algeo eventually will take him to the ground... bill alio is going to be the pick”
$1.40
Zlatan's Fight Picks picks Bill Algeo
“I think Bill Algeo eventually will take him to the ground... bill alio is going to be the pick”
$1.40
ME
MMA EXPERTS picks Kyle Nelson VALUE
“you know what side I'm going with the Kyle Nelson side I know it's surprising to a lot of people but certain ones of you have kind of sniped out Nelson as a decent Underdog”
$3.00
MMA EXPERTS picks Kyle Nelson VALUE
“you know what side I'm going with the Kyle Nelson side I know it's surprising to a lot of people but certain ones of you have kind of sniped out Nelson as a decent Underdog”
$3.00
WP
We Want Picks picks Bill Algeo VALUE
“I think Bill Algeo is going to win”
We Want Picks picks Bill Algeo VALUE
“I think Bill Algeo is going to win”
MA
Marsz picks Bill Algeo VALUE
“give me Bill alio”
Marsz picks Bill Algeo VALUE
“give me Bill alio”
MM
MMAPREDICTIONGURU picks Bill Algeo VALUE
“I'll say Bill Algeo gets the win”
MMAPREDICTIONGURU picks Bill Algeo VALUE
“I'll say Bill Algeo gets the win”
CB
Champ Bets picks Bill Algeo
“I'm going with Bill ALU because of that I think that style is going to be what's needed to stop Kyle Nelson so I'm just really going with K uh not KY Nelson I'm going with Bill ALU”
Champ Bets picks Bill Algeo
“I'm going with Bill ALU because of that I think that style is going to be what's needed to stop Kyle Nelson so I'm just really going with K uh not KY Nelson I'm going with Bill ALU”
KU
Kunath picks Kyle Nelson VALUE
“Kyle Nelson is probabLoopy Godinez your best bet at 7100 reason being is because there realLoopy Godinez isn't first round upside for either of these guys”
Kunath picks Kyle Nelson VALUE
“Kyle Nelson is probabLoopy Godinez your best bet at 7100 reason being is because there realLoopy Godinez isn't first round upside for either of these guys”
MB
MMA Bros picks Bill Algeo VALUE
“I'm going for yeah I'm going for Al knockout”
MMA Bros picks Bill Algeo VALUE
“I'm going for yeah I'm going for Al knockout”
MB
MMA Bros picks Kyle Nelson VALUE
“I'm going with Vera Jan Roba I think she's going to get the dominating positions take her down and and win un name's decision”
MMA Bros picks Kyle Nelson VALUE
“I'm going with Vera Jan Roba I think she's going to get the dominating positions take her down and and win un name's decision”
BM
Bing Bing Boys MMA picks Kyle Nelson VALUE
“I have Kyle Nelson dude”
Bing Bing Boys MMA picks Kyle Nelson VALUE
“I have Kyle Nelson dude”
Recent form
last five, most recent first
Nelson17-6-1
L
McKinney
Mar '26
W
Frevola
Oct '25
L
Garcia
Sep '24
W
Algeo
Mar '24
W
Padilla
Sep '23
Algeo18-9
L
Doo-ho
Jul '24
L
Nelson
Mar '24
W
Hernandez
Oct '23
W
Brown
Apr '23
L
Fili
Sep '22