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Motta vs NolanPreliminary Card · Lightweight
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Ankalaev vs WalkerMain Card · Light Heavyweight
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Miller vs BenítezMain Card · Lightweight
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Bautista vs SimónMain Card · Bantamweight
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Cortes-Acosta vs ArlovskiMain Card · Heavyweight
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Parsons vs SemelsbergerPreliminary Card · Welterweight
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McGhee vs BolañosPreliminary Card · Bantamweight
FB
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Basharat vs LapilusPreliminary Card · Bantamweight
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Motta vs NolanPreliminary Card · Lightweight
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BEST PRICE
Prophecy read
Motta v Nolan
Lightweight
Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
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Tale of the tape
the matchup, side by side
Motta 15-5
VS
10-1 Nolan
5'10"
height
6'3"
169 lb
weight
155 lb
71"
reach
73"
33
age
26
Orthodox
stance
Southpaw
3.6
strikes landed / min
2.5
37%
striking accuracy
52%
4.5
strikes absorbed / min
2.4
56%
striking defence
59%
0.0
takedowns / 15 min
1.2
0%
takedown accuracy
42%
82%
takedown defence
62%
0.0
submissions / 15 min
1.4
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation
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Analyst tape
every extracted call on this fight
MM
Mainer MMA picks Tom Nolan VALUE
“Tom Nolan's going to smoke him I don't see that undefeated record going away anytime too soon”
Mainer MMA picks Tom Nolan VALUE
“Tom Nolan's going to smoke him I don't see that undefeated record going away anytime too soon”
TD
The Rambling Dad picks Tom Nolan VALUE
“I'Nikolas Motta going to go with with Tom Nolan Underdog pick... Banker we have Tom Nolan... Magomed Ankalaev is going with uh with Tom Nolan... William piing Tom Nolan Tom Nolan”
The Rambling Dad picks Tom Nolan VALUE
“I'Nikolas Motta going to go with with Tom Nolan Underdog pick... Banker we have Tom Nolan... Magomed Ankalaev is going with uh with Tom Nolan... William piing Tom Nolan Tom Nolan”
TP
The False 9 Podcast picks Nikolas Motta
“I'm going to just have to go with cape”
The False 9 Podcast picks Nikolas Motta
“I'm going to just have to go with cape”
WP
We Want Picks picks Tom Nolan VALUE
“I do think Nicholas ma loses this fight and Nikolas Mottana does get finished”
We Want Picks picks Tom Nolan VALUE
“I do think Nicholas ma loses this fight and Nikolas Mottana does get finished”
PN
Picks Nation picks Nikolas Motta VALUE
“it's not absurd to think that Nicholas Nikolas Motta can win this fight”
$4.00
Picks Nation picks Nikolas Motta VALUE
“it's not absurd to think that Nicholas Nikolas Motta can win this fight”
$4.00
DS
DFS Army - Daily Fantasy Sports picks Nikolas Motta VALUE
“Ma has just looked so atrocious man”
$3.85
DFS Army - Daily Fantasy Sports picks Nikolas Motta VALUE
“Ma has just looked so atrocious man”
$3.85
BM
Broke Bets MMA picks Tom Nolan VALUE
“bet us and bet online came out with their line for Tom Nolan versus Nicholas mat um at minus 125 and I just smashed it... Nikolas Motta has the power to put him away”
$1.80
Broke Bets MMA picks Tom Nolan VALUE
“bet us and bet online came out with their line for Tom Nolan versus Nicholas mat um at minus 125 and I just smashed it... Nikolas Motta has the power to put him away”
$1.80
EB
ESPN BET picks Tom Nolan VALUE
“we're going to go with the two favorites we're going to go with Tom Nolan and Joshua Van”
ESPN BET picks Tom Nolan VALUE
“we're going to go with the two favorites we're going to go with Tom Nolan and Joshua Van”
MM
MMAnomaly picks Tom Nolan VALUE
“I'm going with Tom Nolan here think he's a final way to win to keep the KO streak”
MMAnomaly picks Tom Nolan VALUE
“I'm going with Tom Nolan here think he's a final way to win to keep the KO streak”
Recent form
last five, most recent first
Motta15-5
L
Sadykhov
Jun '25
W
Hayisaer
Nov '24
W
Nolan
Jan '24
L
Torres
Jun '23
W
VanCamp
Sep '22
Nolan10-1
W
Ziam
Jun '26
W
Campbell
Sep '25
W
Borshchev
Feb '25
W
Reyes
Aug '24
W
Martinez
May '24