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Parsons vs RobertsPreliminary Card · Welterweight
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Parkin vs PoguesPreliminary Card · Heavyweight
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BEST PRICE
Prophecy read
Álvarez v Diakiese
Lightweight
Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
The edge on this fight is Pro-onlyPro unlocks our fair line, the EV% and which side we back — plus AI deep research on every fight.
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Tale of the tape
the matchup, side by side
Álvarez 23-3
VS
17-7 Diakiese
6'3"
height
—
171 lb
weight
—
77"
reach
—
33
age
33
Orthodox
stance
Orthodox
2.9
strikes landed / min
2.5
62%
striking accuracy
40%
4.4
strikes absorbed / min
2.6
54%
striking defence
52%
2.5
takedowns / 15 min
3.3
37%
takedown accuracy
43%
50%
takedown defence
66%
0.8
submissions / 15 min
0.0
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation
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Analyst tape
every extracted call on this fight
SA
Stokastic DFS - Daily Fantasy Sports Advice picks Joel Álvarez VALUE
“I like [Joel Álvarez] as an underdog option”
Stokastic DFS - Daily Fantasy Sports Advice picks Joel Álvarez VALUE
“I like [Joel Álvarez] as an underdog option”
WP
We Want Picks picks Joel Álvarez VALUE
“I think Joel Álvarez wins this fight history says if he wins he wins by finish”
$91.00
We Want Picks picks Joel Álvarez VALUE
“I think Joel Álvarez wins this fight history says if he wins he wins by finish”
$91.00
WP
We Want Picks picks Joel Álvarez
“Joel Álvarez this is another betting against the opponent type situation Marc Diakiese just lost to a 48 year old Michael Johnson got zero takedowns”
We Want Picks picks Joel Álvarez
“Joel Álvarez this is another betting against the opponent type situation Marc Diakiese just lost to a 48 year old Michael Johnson got zero takedowns”
HY
Hypecheck picks Marc Diakiese VALUE
“betting wise I see Jafel Farès Ziamilho coming out hot in that first round but Marc Diakieseaniel Bárez should win the next two with his pressure and wrestling it's a doger pass spot here”
$2.02
Hypecheck picks Marc Diakiese VALUE
“betting wise I see Jafel Farès Ziamilho coming out hot in that first round but Marc Diakieseaniel Bárez should win the next two with his pressure and wrestling it's a doger pass spot here”
$2.02
BM
Bert MMA picks Joel Álvarez VALUE
“I feel pretty good on Joel Álvarez”
Bert MMA picks Joel Álvarez VALUE
“I feel pretty good on Joel Álvarez”
CC
Combat Crazy picks Marc Diakiese
“if you really want to bet you can bet on Daniel Daniel Marc Diakieseos Daniel Marc Diakieseos he seems to be the favorite he's 14-0 again a younger guy”
Combat Crazy picks Marc Diakiese
“if you really want to bet you can bet on Daniel Daniel Marc Diakieseos Daniel Marc Diakieseos he seems to be the favorite he's 14-0 again a younger guy”
CC
Combat Crazy picks Joel Álvarez
“I think I'm going with Joel Álvarez Álvarez I think he I wasn't I wasn't impressed with Marc Diakiese Diakiese's last fight”
Combat Crazy picks Joel Álvarez
“I think I'm going with Joel Álvarez Álvarez I think he I wasn't I wasn't impressed with Marc Diakiese Diakiese's last fight”
PR
Premium-Picks picks Joel Álvarez VALUE
“give me Alvarez via everything just just more Savvy more experience um I'm hoping he doesn't let me down here but I got Alvarez”
$1.50
Premium-Picks picks Joel Álvarez VALUE
“give me Alvarez via everything just just more Savvy more experience um I'm hoping he doesn't let me down here but I got Alvarez”
$1.50
BB
Blood Money MMA Bets picks Joel Álvarez VALUE
“I'm taking Bruno Brazil here I'll take her by decision”
$1.83
Blood Money MMA Bets picks Joel Álvarez VALUE
“I'm taking Bruno Brazil here I'll take her by decision”
$1.83
BB
Blood Money MMA Bets picks Marc Diakiese
“Marc Diakiese on uh Chelsea's older sister”
Blood Money MMA Bets picks Marc Diakiese
“Marc Diakiese on uh Chelsea's older sister”
AD
Addicted2Combat picks Joel Álvarez
“most confident fighter is Tom Aspinall Molly McCann Makhmud Muradov Nathaniel Wood André Muniz Lerone Murphy Farès Ziam Daniel Bárez Jonny Parsons Joel Álvarez Davey Grant Chris Duncan Jamal Pogues Pannie Kianzad and least confident fighter is Shauna Bannon”
Addicted2Combat picks Joel Álvarez
“most confident fighter is Tom Aspinall Molly McCann Makhmud Muradov Nathaniel Wood André Muniz Lerone Murphy Farès Ziam Daniel Bárez Jonny Parsons Joel Álvarez Davey Grant Chris Duncan Jamal Pogues Pannie Kianzad and least confident fighter is Shauna Bannon”
Recent form
last five, most recent first
Álvarez23-3
L
Amosov
May '26
W
Luque
Oct '25
W
Klose
Dec '24
W
Brener
Aug '24
W
Diakiese
Jul '23
Diakiese17-7
W
Fernandes
Nov '23
L
Álvarez
Jul '23
L
Johnson
Dec '22
W
Hadžović
Jul '22
W
Borshchev
Mar '22