Choose a fight to analyse
TA
MT
Aspinall vs TyburaMain Card · Heavyweight
JS
MM
Stoliarenko vs McCannMain Card · Women'S Flyweight
NW
AF
Wood vs FiliMain Card · Featherweight
PC
AM
Craig vs MunizMain Card · Middleweight
FZ
JH
Ziam vs HerbertMain Card · Lightweight
LM
JC
Murphy vs CulibaoMain Card · Featherweight
DM
DG
Marcos vs GrantMain Card · Bantamweight
JP
DR
Parsons vs RobertsPreliminary Card · Welterweight
JÁ
MD
Álvarez vs DiakiesePreliminary Card · Lightweight
MP
JP
Parkin vs PoguesPreliminary Card · Heavyweight
MM
BB
Muradov vs BarberenaPreliminary Card · Middleweight
KV
PK
Vieira vs KianzadPreliminary Card · Women'S Bantamweight
CD
YA
Duncan vs AshmouzPreliminary Card · Lightweight
BB
SB
Brasil vs BannonPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight
JF
DB
Filho vs BárezPreliminary Card · Flyweight
MT
Aspinall vs TyburaMain Card · Heavyweight
JS
MM
Stoliarenko vs McCannMain Card · Women'S Flyweight
NW
AF
Wood vs FiliMain Card · Featherweight
PC
AM
Craig vs MunizMain Card · Middleweight
FZ
JH
Ziam vs HerbertMain Card · Lightweight
LM
JC
Murphy vs CulibaoMain Card · Featherweight
DM
DG
Marcos vs GrantMain Card · Bantamweight
JP
DR
Parsons vs RobertsPreliminary Card · Welterweight
JÁ
MD
Álvarez vs DiakiesePreliminary Card · Lightweight
MP
JP
Parkin vs PoguesPreliminary Card · Heavyweight
MM
BB
Muradov vs BarberenaPreliminary Card · Middleweight
KV
PK
Vieira vs KianzadPreliminary Card · Women'S Bantamweight
CD
YA
Duncan vs AshmouzPreliminary Card · Lightweight
BB
SB
Brasil vs BannonPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight
JF
DB
Filho vs BárezPreliminary Card · Flyweight
BEST PRICE
Prophecy read
Duncan v Ashmouz
Lightweight
Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
The edge on this fight is Pro-onlyPro unlocks our fair line, the EV% and which side we back — plus AI deep research on every fight.
Go Pro →
New here? Create a free account for the full leaderboard & bet tracker
Tale of the tape
the matchup, side by side
Duncan 15-2
VS
8-1 Ashmouz
5'10"
height
5'9"
156 lb
weight
155 lb
71"
reach
69"
33
age
31
Orthodox
stance
Orthodox
4.7
strikes landed / min
2.9
46%
striking accuracy
50%
4.0
strikes absorbed / min
4.5
48%
striking defence
55%
3.5
takedowns / 15 min
4.8
37%
takedown accuracy
50%
33%
takedown defence
60%
0.3
submissions / 15 min
0.0
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation
Locked our pick, the fair line & EV are Pro-only
Go Pro →
Analyst tape
every extracted call on this fight
TM
The MMA-Holes picks Chris Duncan
“I'm gonna go with Chris Duncan by decision”
The MMA-Holes picks Chris Duncan
“I'm gonna go with Chris Duncan by decision”
SA
Stokastic DFS - Daily Fantasy Sports Advice picks Yanal Ashmouz VALUE
“for tournaments give me Yanal Ashmouz just because I do think this is a coin flip fight”
Stokastic DFS - Daily Fantasy Sports Advice picks Yanal Ashmouz VALUE
“for tournaments give me Yanal Ashmouz just because I do think this is a coin flip fight”
HY
Hypecheck picks Yanal Ashmouz VALUE
“and I'm going against the majority of the handicappers in this spot and backing the Russian Yanal Ashmouz this week”
$2.21
Hypecheck picks Yanal Ashmouz VALUE
“and I'm going against the majority of the handicappers in this spot and backing the Russian Yanal Ashmouz this week”
$2.21
BF
Bobby Bets Fights picks Yanal Ashmouz
“I'm gonna go with ashmuse just because I do like to stand up and I think you know he's got to be drawn that takedown defense and if he can touch Duncan he's going to hurt Duncan”
Bobby Bets Fights picks Yanal Ashmouz
“I'm gonna go with ashmuse just because I do like to stand up and I think you know he's got to be drawn that takedown defense and if he can touch Duncan he's going to hurt Duncan”
BB
Blood Money MMA Bets picks Chris Duncan VALUE
“I'm gonna go with Brazil as well too”
Blood Money MMA Bets picks Chris Duncan VALUE
“I'm gonna go with Brazil as well too”
BB
Blood Money MMA Bets picks Yanal Ashmouz
“Chris Duncan vs Yanal Ashmouz”
Blood Money MMA Bets picks Yanal Ashmouz
“Chris Duncan vs Yanal Ashmouz”
AD
Addicted2Combat picks Chris Duncan
“most confident fighter is Tom Aspinall Molly McCann Makhmud Muradov Nathaniel Wood André Muniz Lerone Murphy Farès Ziam Daniel Bárez Jonny Parsons Joel Álvarez Davey Grant Chris Duncan Jamal Pogues Pannie Kianzad and least confident fighter is Shauna Bannon”
Addicted2Combat picks Chris Duncan
“most confident fighter is Tom Aspinall Molly McCann Makhmud Muradov Nathaniel Wood André Muniz Lerone Murphy Farès Ziam Daniel Bárez Jonny Parsons Joel Álvarez Davey Grant Chris Duncan Jamal Pogues Pannie Kianzad and least confident fighter is Shauna Bannon”
JR
JrBlessed picks Yanal Ashmouz
“I'm gonna go with you now ask most to win this fight”
JrBlessed picks Yanal Ashmouz
“I'm gonna go with you now ask most to win this fight”
PR
Pub Sports Radio picks Chris Duncan
“Chris Duncan decision”
Pub Sports Radio picks Chris Duncan
“Chris Duncan decision”
AM
Aaron The Dog MMA picks Yanal Ashmouz VALUE
“I got Yano here uh talk to myself in diano by decision um but maybe they're over two and a half if you want to go one way or the other on that but what's your thoughts on this one”
$2.25
Aaron The Dog MMA picks Yanal Ashmouz VALUE
“I got Yano here uh talk to myself in diano by decision um but maybe they're over two and a half if you want to go one way or the other on that but what's your thoughts on this one”
$2.25
AM
Aaron The Dog MMA picks Chris Duncan
“I parlay Chris Duncan because I'm really smart and I you know I got him at minus 160”
$1.62
Aaron The Dog MMA picks Chris Duncan
“I parlay Chris Duncan because I'm really smart and I you know I got him at minus 160”
$1.62
Recent form
last five, most recent first
Duncan15-2
L
Moicano
Apr '26
W
McKinney
Dec '25
W
Rębecki
Aug '25
W
Vucenic
Mar '25
W
Oki
Sep '24
Ashmouz8-1
L
Salkilld
Jun '25
W
Peek
Sep '24
L
Duncan
Jul '23
W
Patterson
Mar '23