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UFC on ESPN: Kara-France vs. Albazi
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BEST PRICE Prophecy read Caceres v Pineda Featherweight Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
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Consensus11 picks · conf 31/99
Caceres 9
2 Pineda
MGUCPD pick Caceres
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Caceres 21-15 VS 28-17 Pineda
5'10" height 5'7"
145 lb weight 145 lb
74" reach 69"
38 age 40
Southpaw stance Orthodox
4.2 strikes landed / min 2.9
49% striking accuracy 49%
3.1 strikes absorbed / min 3.3
62% striking defence 45%
0.5 takedowns / 15 min 1.4
68% takedown accuracy 24%
64% takedown defence 54%
0.7 submissions / 15 min 1.5
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
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Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
ME MMA EXPERTS picks Alex Caceres “I've been picking Alex Caceres” $1.53
WP We Want Picks picks Alex Caceres “I do think caceres wins”
ME MMA EXPERTS picks Alex Caceres “I'm riding with Alex Caceres” $1.56
CL Clenbat picks Alex Caceres “my lock of the week is Alex Caceres this is my lock of the week I don't do like a bunch of other YouTubers do I don't pick an underdog I pick with almost just about his 100 certainty as I can get on a fighter that I truthfully believe is going to win and I believe Alex Caceres is that guy on this card”
HB Half The Battle picks Daniel Pineda VALUE “I'll pick him as well” $2.50
UG UFC GamblingAddicts picks Alex Caceres “I've gotta go with Bruce Alex Caceres to win this matchup”
ME MMA EXPERTS picks Daniel Pineda “I'm picking him now I think he's more dangerous than John CastañedaNY Muñoz Jr.” $1.45
DN DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Alex Caceres VALUE “I'll say Alex is Sarah's third round submission win here”
WP We Want Picks picks Daniel Pineda “I'll go Daniel Pineda in this fight”
SY Super Sodiq Yusuff picks Alex Caceres VALUE “Alex Caceres ... will never go against Alex Caceres”
GP Greedo Plays picks Alex Caceres “give me Alex Bruce Lee Eric caseras to beat Daniel Pineda I think we'll get it done by unanimous decision” $1.57
CC Combat Critique picks Alex Caceres VALUE “I am picking Alex Caceres to win this fight”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Caceres21-15
L Woodson Decision · R3 May '24
L Chikadze Decision · R3 Aug '23
W Pineda Decision · R3 Jun '23
W Erosa KO/TKO · R1 Dec '22
L Yusuff Decision · R3 Mar '22
Pineda28-17
L Elkins Decision · R3 Oct '24
L Wood Decision · R3 Jul '24
L Caceres Decision · R3 Jun '23
W Lutz Submission · R2 Mar '23
L Swanson KO/TKO · R2 Dec '20