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UFC on ESPN: Kara-France vs. Albazi
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BEST PRICE Prophecy read Castañeda v Gafurov Bantamweight Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
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Consensus6 picks · conf 18/99
Castañeda 1
5 Gafurov
W pick Castañeda
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Castañeda 21-7 VS 20-6 Gafurov
— height 5'7"
— weight 136 lb
— reach 68"
34 age 30
Switch stance Orthodox
4.7 strikes landed / min 3.0
50% striking accuracy 47%
5.2 strikes absorbed / min 2.2
54% striking defence 50%
1.8 takedowns / 15 min 1.9
35% takedown accuracy 27%
71% takedown defence 68%
0.1 submissions / 15 min 0.0
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
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Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
FS Final Round Sports picks Muin Gafurov VALUE “that's another one to take good plus money that's a Muin Gafurov good plus money” $2.15
ME MMA EXPERTS picks Muin Gafurov VALUE “give me muyen Muin Gafurov as the underdog” $2.13
WP We Want Picks picks Muin Gafurov VALUE “I actually like moween to win this fight as well”
WP We Want Picks picks John Castañeda “very very slight lean for Castaneda”
DN DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Muin Gafurov VALUE “I'll pick him to win I'll say he wins this fight by like a second round knock out potentially submission”
TG THE MMA GURU picks Muin Gafurov “I'm gonna have to go with Muin Gafurov”
FF Fight Fiend Forecast picks Muin Gafurov VALUE “I'm gonna go with him to get this one done I'd say yeah all four losses by a decision I believe for moon in gaffarov from tajakistan he's a finisher he has one decision win he's gonna be looking for that knockout or submission 10 knocking seven submissions I believe”
ME MMA EXPERTS picks John Castañeda VALUE “I'm gonna go win for uh hamzat”
WP We Want Picks picks John Castañeda “for now casinade is going to be the pick because I do think the pressure is going to be the difference”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Castañeda21-7
L Gutiérrez Decision · R3 Apr '25
L Marcos Decision · R3 Jun '24
W Kyung-ho Decision · R3 Nov '23
W Gafurov Decision · R3 Jun '23
L Santos KO/TKO · R2 Oct '22
Gafurov20-6
L Wikłacz Submission · R3 Feb '26
W Nakamura Decision · R3 Jan '25
W Kyung-ho Decision · R3 Jun '24
L Nurmagomedov Submission · R1 Oct '23
L Castañeda Decision · R3 Jun '23