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Pineda vs LutzMain Card · Featherweight
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BEST PRICE
Prophecy read
Pineda v Lutz
Featherweight
Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
The edge on this fight is Pro-onlyPro unlocks our fair line, the EV% and which side we back — plus AI deep research on every fight.
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Tale of the tape
the matchup, side by side
Pineda 28-17
VS
12-4 Lutz
5'7"
height
5'8"
145 lb
weight
146 lb
69"
reach
72"
40
age
31
Orthodox
stance
Orthodox
2.9
strikes landed / min
3.7
49%
striking accuracy
46%
3.3
strikes absorbed / min
3.2
45%
striking defence
44%
1.4
takedowns / 15 min
2.0
24%
takedown accuracy
44%
54%
takedown defence
69%
1.5
submissions / 15 min
0.2
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation
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Analyst tape
every extracted call on this fight
ME
MMA EXPERTS picks Daniel Pineda VALUE
“I'm going with the pit Daniel da Silva Daniel Pineda”
$3.25
MMA EXPERTS picks Daniel Pineda VALUE
“I'm going with the pit Daniel da Silva Daniel Pineda”
$3.25
DN
DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Tucker Lutz VALUE
“I will be having more Tucker Lutz because I think Tucker let's just go out there and get that late finish”
DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Tucker Lutz VALUE
“I will be having more Tucker Lutz because I think Tucker let's just go out there and get that late finish”
WP
We Want Picks picks Tucker Lutz VALUE
“I do think Tucker Lutz wins this fight I think he weathers whatever early storm he has coming and then gets the wrestling going”
We Want Picks picks Tucker Lutz VALUE
“I do think Tucker Lutz wins this fight I think he weathers whatever early storm he has coming and then gets the wrestling going”
SH
Sherdog.com picks Tucker Lutz VALUE
“Daniel Pineda and Tucker Lutz minus 285 for Lots who is not a bad fighter at all”
$1.35
Sherdog.com picks Tucker Lutz VALUE
“Daniel Pineda and Tucker Lutz minus 285 for Lots who is not a bad fighter at all”
$1.35
PR
Premium-Picks picks Tucker Lutz VALUE
“I probably will take a shot on Tucker let's inside the distance”
Premium-Picks picks Tucker Lutz VALUE
“I probably will take a shot on Tucker let's inside the distance”
PR
Premium-Picks picks Daniel Pineda
“he's 37 now that's old for like his weight class big time”
Premium-Picks picks Daniel Pineda
“he's 37 now that's old for like his weight class big time”
HB
Half The Battle picks Daniel Pineda VALUE
“I'm taking Pineda I like the odds I think he's the more dangerous of the two”
$3.45
Half The Battle picks Daniel Pineda VALUE
“I'm taking Pineda I like the odds I think he's the more dangerous of the two”
$3.45
UG
UFC GamblingAddicts picks Tucker Lutz
“I'm gonna decide with talk a lots to win this match up”
UFC GamblingAddicts picks Tucker Lutz
“I'm gonna decide with talk a lots to win this match up”
WP
We Want Picks picks Daniel Pineda VALUE
“FIIGHTER_G's going to be the pick”
We Want Picks picks Daniel Pineda VALUE
“FIIGHTER_G's going to be the pick”
TF
The ICE Files picks Daniel Pineda VALUE
“I think Tucker love should get it done on this one”
The ICE Files picks Daniel Pineda VALUE
“I think Tucker love should get it done on this one”
Recent form
last five, most recent first
Pineda28-17
L
Elkins
Oct '24
L
Wood
Jul '24
L
Caceres
Jun '23
W
Lutz
Mar '23
L
Swanson
Dec '20
Lutz12-4
L
Baghdasaryan
Jul '23
L
Pineda
Mar '23
L
Sabatini
Nov '21
W
Aguilar
May '21