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UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Spivac
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BEST PRICE Prophecy read Taira v Santos Aguilar Flyweight Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
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Consensus7 picks · conf 21/99
Taira 4
3 Santos Aguilar
HATW pick Taira
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Taira 18-1 VS 12-4 Santos Aguilar
5'7" height 5'4"
126 lb weight 125 lb
70" reach 63"
26 age 30
Orthodox stance Orthodox
3.0 strikes landed / min 5.3
60% striking accuracy 50%
2.7 strikes absorbed / min 2.6
46% striking defence 48%
2.7 takedowns / 15 min 3.0
44% takedown accuracy 29%
45% takedown defence 53%
1.6 submissions / 15 min 1.0
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
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Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
SH Sherdog.com picks Jesús Santos Aguilar “I'm going for uh Henry Corrales straight up to win at plus uh three five one” $4.51
HB Half The Battle picks Tatsuro Taira VALUE “I think it's without a doubt he's gonna win” $1.09
WP We Want Picks picks Tatsuro Taira VALUE “tatsuro tires the easy pick here” $1.12
DN DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Jesús Santos Aguilar “if it does get out of the first round you know Willie pay off the 9600 we'll have to see”
DN DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Tatsuro Taira VALUE “he's in a smash spot here he's minus 1000 favorites some books have like minus 1500 he should go out there and eventually get the sub”
TF The ICE Files picks Tatsuro Taira “obviously I'm gonna lean towards tatsurutaira” $1.09
WP We Want Picks picks Tatsuro Taira “the pick for this fight first fight of the night is going to be Tatsuro Taira” $1.08
FF Fight Fiend Forecast picks Jesús Santos Aguilar VALUE “I'm going G to say you later for lock of the week Jesús Santos Aguilar Christ 550 Underdog” $6.50
AM Artem MMA picks Tatsuro Taira “you do have to go with him in this fight” $1.10
Recent form last five, most recent first
Taira18-1
L Van KO/TKO · R5 May '26
W Moreno KO/TKO · R2 Dec '25
W Hyun-sung Submission · R2 Aug '25
L Royval Decision · R5 Oct '24
W Perez KO/TKO · R2 Jun '24
Santos Aguilar12-4
L Mudaerji Decision · R3 Mar '26
W Gurule Decision · R3 Sep '25
L Estevam Decision · R3 Feb '25
W Nicoll Submission · R1 Aug '24
W Mendonça Decision · R3 Feb '24