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Grasso vs AraújoMain Card · Women'S Flyweight
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Martinez vs SwansonMain Card · Bantamweight
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Assunção vs HenryMain Card · Bantamweight
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Menifield vs CirkunovMain Card · Light Heavyweight
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Martinez vs DavisPreliminary Card · Bantamweight
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Malkoun vs MaximovPreliminary Card · Middleweight
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Brito vs AlexanderPreliminary Card · Featherweight
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Rodríguez vs HughesPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight
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Taira vs VergaraPreliminary Card · Catchweight
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Rodriguez vs JacksonPreliminary Card · Welterweight
VA
Grasso vs AraújoMain Card · Women'S Flyweight
JM
CS
Martinez vs SwansonMain Card · Bantamweight
DT
JW
Todorović vs WrightMain Card · Middleweight
RA
VH
Assunção vs HenryMain Card · Bantamweight
AM
MC
Menifield vs CirkunovMain Card · Light Heavyweight
LM
BD
Martinez vs DavisPreliminary Card · Bantamweight
JM
NM
Malkoun vs MaximovPreliminary Card · Middleweight
JB
LA
Brito vs AlexanderPreliminary Card · Featherweight
PR
SH
Rodríguez vs HughesPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight
TT
CV
Taira vs VergaraPreliminary Card · Catchweight
PR
MJ
Rodriguez vs JacksonPreliminary Card · Welterweight
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Prophecy read
Grasso v Araújo
Women'S Flyweight
Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
The edge on this fight is Pro-onlyPro unlocks our fair line, the EV% and which side we back — plus AI deep research on every fight.
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Tale of the tape
the matchup, side by side
Grasso 16-5-1
VS
13-6 Araújo
5'5"
height
—
126 lb
weight
—
66"
reach
—
32
age
39
Orthodox
stance
Orthodox
4.2
strikes landed / min
4.0
41%
striking accuracy
47%
3.7
strikes absorbed / min
4.9
58%
striking defence
56%
0.4
takedowns / 15 min
1.9
40%
takedown accuracy
43%
54%
takedown defence
80%
0.7
submissions / 15 min
0.7
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation
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Analyst tape
every extracted call on this fight
MP
MMA Prophecy picks Alexa Grasso VALUE
“my pick is gonna be Alexa Grasso to get a win”
MMA Prophecy picks Alexa Grasso VALUE
“my pick is gonna be Alexa Grasso to get a win”
FF
Fight Fiend Forecast picks Alexa Grasso
“I'm going to go with Alexa Grasso she's coming in as a favorite 150. I think she's gonna be able to pull it off I didn't look too much into this one and I really bet on women's fights so yeah me either uh look too hard to do it but if you're gonna go with someone I'd say girl so most likely carrasso had the sub in her last fight I really like that I think she can get it done so no not again I'm not gonna turn it she might not get this on this time but her last fight she got the sub she looked good she gets it done this this weekend I think so regardless big sizeable favorite let's hope she gets it done that's her pick next fight cheers”
$2.50
Fight Fiend Forecast picks Alexa Grasso
“I'm going to go with Alexa Grasso she's coming in as a favorite 150. I think she's gonna be able to pull it off I didn't look too much into this one and I really bet on women's fights so yeah me either uh look too hard to do it but if you're gonna go with someone I'd say girl so most likely carrasso had the sub in her last fight I really like that I think she can get it done so no not again I'm not gonna turn it she might not get this on this time but her last fight she got the sub she looked good she gets it done this this weekend I think so regardless big sizeable favorite let's hope she gets it done that's her pick next fight cheers”
$2.50
DN
DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Viviane Araújo
“I'll have some Viviane Araújo”
DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Viviane Araújo
“I'll have some Viviane Araújo”
DN
DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Alexa Grasso
“I'll have some Grosso”
DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Alexa Grasso
“I'll have some Grosso”
1C
101MMA Clinic picks Alexa Grasso
“I'm gonna go with Alexa Grasso”
101MMA Clinic picks Alexa Grasso
“I'm gonna go with Alexa Grasso”
WP
We Want Picks picks Alexa Grasso
“I like Alexa Grasso to win this fight”
We Want Picks picks Alexa Grasso
“I like Alexa Grasso to win this fight”
WP
We Want Picks picks Viviane Araújo
“my pick is Viviane Araújo”
We Want Picks picks Viviane Araújo
“my pick is Viviane Araújo”
WI
WEIGHING IN picks Viviane Araújo VALUE
“I think Viviane Araújo can is Alexa Grasso gonna actually go for think that Viviane Araújo's gonna be she's going who's next co-main event”
WEIGHING IN picks Viviane Araújo VALUE
“I think Viviane Araújo can is Alexa Grasso gonna actually go for think that Viviane Araújo's gonna be she's going who's next co-main event”
UG
UFC GamblingAddicts picks Alexa Grasso VALUE
“I am gonna side with Alexa Grasso in this Main Event”
UFC GamblingAddicts picks Alexa Grasso VALUE
“I am gonna side with Alexa Grasso in this Main Event”
TF
The ICE Files picks Alexa Grasso VALUE
“so I think uh I'm gonna go with Alexa Alexa Grasso on that one”
The ICE Files picks Alexa Grasso VALUE
“so I think uh I'm gonna go with Alexa Alexa Grasso on that one”
TG
THE MMA GURU picks Alexa Grasso
“I am picking grassa”
THE MMA GURU picks Alexa Grasso
“I am picking grassa”
1M
138 MMA picks Alexa Grasso
“I'm going to pick Grosso here”
138 MMA picks Alexa Grasso
“I'm going to pick Grosso here”
Recent form
last five, most recent first
Grasso16-5-1
W
Barber
Mar '26
L
Silva
May '25
L
Shevchenko
Sep '24
W
Shevchenko
Mar '23
W
Araújo
Oct '22
Araújo13-6
L
Cortez
Jun '25
W
Silva
Nov '24
L
Silva
Feb '24
W
Maia
Oct '23
L
Ribas
Mar '23