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BEST PRICE Prophecy read Brito v Alexander Featherweight Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
The edge on this fight is Pro-onlyPro unlocks our fair line, the EV% and which side we back — plus AI deep research on every fight. Go Pro →
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Consensus4 picks · conf 10/99
Brito 2
2 Alexander
TM pick Brito
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Brito 18-5-1 VS 8-4 Alexander
5'8" height 5'11"
145 lb weight 145 lb
72" reach 73"
31 age 30
Orthodox stance Orthodox
3.0 strikes landed / min 5.2
50% striking accuracy 55%
2.7 strikes absorbed / min 1.8
44% striking defence 71%
3.1 takedowns / 15 min 0.0
68% takedown accuracy 0%
72% takedown defence 57%
0.9 submissions / 15 min 0.0
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation Locked our pick, the fair line & EV are Pro-only Go Pro →
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
MP MMA Prophecy picks Joanderson Brito VALUE “I'm picking Joanderson Brito to get a win”
DN DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Lucas Alexander “another fight where I'm not going to be playing a ton of Lucas Alexander”
WP We Want Picks picks Lucas Alexander VALUE “Joe Anderson burrito is an animal I like him 9 400 sees the pick”
WP We Want Picks picks Joanderson Brito “my pick is going to be burrito”
WP We Want Picks picks Lucas Alexander “my pick for this fight is dusko”
TF The ICE Files picks Joanderson Brito VALUE “so I'm taking Joanderson Brito on that one”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Brito18-5-1
W Leavitt Submission · R1 Jun '26
W Thomson Decision · R3 Dec '25
L Sabatini Decision · R3 Apr '25
L Gomis Decision · R3 Sep '24
W Shore KO/TKO · R2 May '24
Alexander8-4
L Grad KO/TKO · R2 Feb '25
L Saragih KO/TKO · R1 Nov '23
W Peterson Decision · R3 Mar '23
L Brito Submission · R1 Oct '22