UFC on ESPN: Vettori vs. Cannonier · breakdown
Picks, timestamped
entry price locked at moment of pick · line tracked since · best price in any region · close = day before the event
MB
Modestas Bukauskas
v Zac Pauga
MONEYLINE
WON
Modestas Bukauskas
v Zac Pauga
MONEYLINE
WON
“I'm gonna go with Modestas Bukauskas uh he had a rough time in the UFC towards the end of his last run uh he got his leg destroyed but he took it like a man went back to the Regionals and collected heads uh forced his way back uh looked great on his return as well uh the major danger here is the uh Zac Pauga style uh he likes a cuddle and this will be interesting to see if he has any power coming down from heavyweight I can't pick a man though that fights the way he does uh hopefully modestus will keep him off him with a bigger reach and pepper him up I'm gonna go with a lopsided decision for modestus”
Line since pick
CLV +2%
◆ entry$1.57
→
close$1.54
entry: TAB · best in any region at publish
RL
Ronnie Lawrence
v Dan Argueta
MONEYLINE
Ronnie Lawrence
v Dan Argueta
MONEYLINE
“I'm tempted to out on this one and go for a decision but I'm gonna take Ronnie Lawrence uh both men are similar on the feet in terms of output but I expect Ronnie Lawrence to go hard on the takedown game and wear Dan Argueta down uh there is a chance of a flash KO as long as it stays standing but the smart bet is to expect this to take place on the ground Ronnie Lawrence has some solid takedown game and I expect him to be smart and adapt that strategy this is MMA and you can never count out retardation but with what we know about these guys Ronnie Lawrence is the play I'm not going to be betting it though again I was gonna go for a decision and you know what I do believe that is the play at these odds”
Line since pick
CLV −44%
◆ entry$1.57
→
now$2.80
entry: 888sport · best in any region at publish
TB
Tereza Bledá
v Gabriella Fernandes
PROP · DECISION
WON
Tereza Bledá
v Gabriella Fernandes
PROP · DECISION
WON
“I would stay away from Tereza Bledá she has an extensive amateur record and with more activity on the fee and a greater reach she should be a safe Pair of Hands but it's women women's MMA we know the deal gone to my hand head I'd probably play Tereza Bledá but there is no gun and I like money uh if I was betting on this I'd take the distance or Tereza Bledá to win by decision uh Gabriella Fernandes has never been finished”
Moneyline since pick
CLV −3%
◆ entry$1.42
→
close$1.46
Bledá’s moneyline — prop lines aren’t quoted
JC
Jared Cannonier
v Marvin Vettori
PROP · DECISION
WON
Jared Cannonier
v Marvin Vettori
PROP · DECISION
WON
“all right this is a banana skin alert zargas has been on the end of some dodgy decisions don't get me wrong but the retirement and then coming back is a concern for me uh the haircut Paddy meme thing gives me some hope in a strange way that he's not taking things too seriously now and that might sound strange but that's kind of important to me uh bunez as I'm gonna call him has some notable losses against good competition and is a worry here again I think a scrappy decision is probably going to be the play I do like zougas but I don't really trust him if I was forced to pick I'd go with him but again not to sound like a boring but the distance play is the official pick”
Moneyline since pick
CLV +10%
◆ entry$2.25
→
close$2.05
Cannonier’s moneyline — prop lines aren’t quoted
DB
Denys Bondar
v Carlos Hernandez
MONEYLINE
LOST
Denys Bondar
v Carlos Hernandez
MONEYLINE
LOST
“all right and this one I'm gonna go with Denys Bondar uh he's an accurate Striker and I think again has the option to go to a takedown game which I think he's going to employ here flyweights don't tend to gas so I don't necessarily expect that and while Carlos Hernandez is more active in his striking from a betting perspective for me it's always wiser to go with the man that has more options than Avenues and I think Denys Bondar is that God sorry Denys Bondar is that guy here”
Line since pick
CLV +8%
◆ entry$2.02
→
close$1.87
entry: Bovada · best in any region at publish
CQ
Cristian Quiñonez
v Kang Kyung-ho
MONEYLINE
LOST
Cristian Quiñonez
v Kang Kyung-ho
MONEYLINE
LOST
“this is another tricky one I'm gonna go with Cristian Quiñonez though I don't think I need to get too technical in this one Kang Kyung-ho did look pretty good against Donna bakaro and surprised me with a decision but Kang Kyung-ho has looked pretty bad since then so what can we really take from that performance uh he has proven to be pretty tough to finish but Cristian Quiñonez has that pop uh he's shown a finishing ability and he's gonna be hungry here he's younger he's more active on the feet uh he has decent takedown defense which is probably Kang Kyung-ho's best chance for me I think Cristian Quiñonez will find a moment to hurt the older fighter and potentially get a finish”
Line since pick
—
no market data captured for this fight
AC
Alessandro Costa
v Jimmy Flick
PROP · KO/TKO
WON
Alessandro Costa
v Jimmy Flick
PROP · KO/TKO
WON
“so I'm going to use the same logic as I did with Zar gas but I'm going to take it a step further Jimmy Flick basically retired came back and then got absolutely annihilated by Charles Johnson which is not a great look uh Alessandro Alessandro Costa lost to Amira Bazi who despite robbing Gabriella Fernandes at least looked like he belonged at that level and uh Alessandro Costa made it into the third round in that one having a few moments of his own I think he hits hard and I think there's something to be said about the mentality of a man that retires at any point and finds himself back in there what's his motivation who knows I'm not going to be playing this one personally but I think Alessandro Costa's gonna find a finish here”
Moneyline since pick
CLV +0%
◆ entry$1.41
→
close$1.41
Costa’s moneyline — prop lines aren’t quoted
MT
Manuel Torres
v Nikolas Motta
MONEYLINE
WON
Manuel Torres
v Nikolas Motta
MONEYLINE
WON
“all right Manuel Torres is my pick on this one he is such a smothering Striker uh with decent accuracy and considering how much he throws I expect this to be a stand-up Affair uh he has three inches of reach on Nikolas Motta uh what concerns me about him is he did get smashed by Miller who despite looking great in his last fight is aging Torres on the other hand is on a win streak uh and is the younger fighter with clear physical advantages I think he's going to frustrate at range and catch Mata coming in at some point should be a fun scrap for me yeah uh I'm gonna go with Torres”
Line since pick
CLV +0%
◆ entry$1.56
→
close$1.56
entry: BetOnline.ag · best in any region at publish
PS
Pat Sabatini
v Lucas Almeida
MONEYLINE
WON
Pat Sabatini
v Lucas Almeida
MONEYLINE
WON
“all right I picked Pat Sabatini to pick to beat Jackson and was horrifically wrong in that one like he looked so impressive beforehand but if you're gonna get slipped by Jackson who is more of a smothering wrestler that's a big issue maybe he just got caught out on the night uh Lucas Almeida can really crack and it depends on what you favor here if Pat Sabatini can avoid getting cracked in the face he should win this by timing takedowns and is so good on the ground the difference in this fight is that I think he's gonna expect our maida to crack where he was probably expecting a grappling fight with Jackson and probably didn't respect any power coming back it's risky as Lucas Almeida is very good and could catch him but I'll expect Pat Sabatini to be more cautious here and Implement his game I'm not hugely confident but I'm gonna go with Pat to get back on track”
Line since pick
CLV +4%
◆ entry$1.59
→
close$1.53
entry: BetOnline.ag · best in any region at publish
CD
Christian Leroy Duncan
v Armen Petrosyan
MONEYLINE
LOST
Christian Leroy Duncan
v Armen Petrosyan
MONEYLINE
LOST
“all right I'm gonna go with Christian Leroy Duncan Armen Petrosyan is a very good Striker but Christian Leroy Duncan can bang and that reach Advantage is a serious problem eight inches at middleweight is insane and I just can't Overlook that this is what I'm actually going to be playing and as a Brit maybe I'm a little bit biased two young guys with a lot of potential Christian Leroy Duncan was beaten up uh to dorovich before he got that unfortunate injury but I think at least he's got the potential nerves of a first time big stage moment out the way uh it's at the Apex so that will help the young Fighters too I think Christian Leroy Duncan's gonna catch him and get a brutal KO”
Line since pick
CLV +1%
◆ entry$1.71
→
close$1.69
entry: DraftKings · best in any region at publish