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UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · breakdown

UFC 302 Full Card Breakdown & Predictions | Islam Makhachev vs Dustin Poirier

AS AnyAction SportsCast54% hit
25 months ago 8W–6L · -0.4u
Picks, timestamped entry price locked at moment of pick · line tracked since · best price in any region · close = day before the event
AL André Lima v Mitch Raposo PROP · DECISION WON
“I'm going with Liam I don't want to go you know crazy on the very first fight the night at minus 270 I actually do think that's a pretty decent price cuz I'm pretty low on moso and I think that André André Lima is going to have a pretty good OC career but I mean that's a lot of juice to be playing on a guy who's making his you know second walk to the Octagon no reason to have action on the very first fight if you're not super confident but giving André André Lima leem to win this fight I think he wins via decision”
Moneyline since pick CLV −18%
◆ entry$2.70 close$3.30
Lima’s moneyline — prop lines aren’t quoted · analyst stated $1.37
AP Ailín Pérez v Joselyne Edwards PROP · KO/TKO LOST
“give me Ailín Pérez to win minus minus 200 [ __ ] no I'm not I'm not betting minus 200 on Ailín Pérez if anything I would go fight doesn't go to the distance because I do think that one of these Fighters should be able to get the Finish whether it be Ailín Pérez mauling Joselyne Joselyne Ailín Pérezdwardse Joselyne Ailín Pérezdwards or Joselyne Joselyne Ailín Pérezdwardse Joselyne Ailín Pérezdwards getting the better of Ailín Pérez when she does get tired but I don't know it's hard for me to picture Jin Joselyne Ailín Pérezdwards finishing uh really anybody in the UFC this has to come from Ailín Pérez if he going to finish and it might man so give me Ailín Pérez give me Ailín Pérez inside the distance and I think she wins that fight via ground and pound”
Moneyline since pick CLV +0%
◆ entry$1.56 close$1.56
Pérez’s moneyline — prop lines aren’t quoted · analyst stated $1.50
MG Mickey Gall v Bassil Hafez MONEYLINE LOST
“give me basil Bassil Hafez”
Line since pick CLV −2%
◆ entry$4.40 close$4.50
entry: Ladbrokes AU · best in any region at publish
NP Niko Price v Alex Morono MONEYLINE WON
“give me Alex Morono Morono to win this fight”
Line since pick CLV +0%
◆ entry$3.20 close$3.20
entry: Pinnacle · best in any region at publish
PR Philip Rowe v Jake Matthews PROP · DECISION LOST
“I'm going with the underdog here I'm taking the underdog shot on Philip Philip Roweip Philip Rowe I don't know if I'm going to get to the window here uh you know I'm not crazy crazy confident in Philip Philip Roweip Philip Rowe winning this fight but I mean but at this point we know what we're going to get from Jake Matthews Jake Matthews Matthews right so guy's having close to almost 20 professional fights in the UFC um he's been here since he was like a teenager um very good Striker par powerful hands uh I actually like the wrestling from ja Jake Matthews Matthews I kind of wish he would you know try to emphasize that part of his game a little bit more in his fights I actually kind of SP that way for a lot of these Fighters um there's a lot of wealth Rats on this card um and that seems to be a thinge but man we know ja Jake Matthews Matthews well in his last fight we five unit Max bet against him and we threw a bomb on Morales in his last fight because I was just confident that Jake Matthews Jake Matthews Matthews only had one pass to win that fight and that was v a knockout I didn't think that he was going to out grapple Morales um who seems to be a pretty good Prospect and you know sure enough he ends up cracking Morales multiple times that fight but it wasn't enough to knock him out and and luckily Morales was able to eat those shots and and catch us that 5unit winner but I mean I respect J Matthew skills man he has a ton of experience but he seems to never be able to separate in his fights man he can't really put the emphasis and close out rounds and really put a stamp on those rounds um and he seems to be losing to to guys that he should be favored man if you look at his betting history where he's lined as a favorite man he has a negative Roa like it's pretty bad you don't want to bet on guys that always lose his favorites you know that's you don't want to pay juice for a guy like Jake Matthews Jake Matthews Matthews what my point is B on the other hand though you know 63 whats right so super tall and long he's going to be way taller and longer here in this fight I mean 7in reach advantage in this fight absolutely crazy got 4-in height advantage in this fight um he's going to be towering over Jake Matthews Jake Matthews Matthews and so that's brings me to like how is Jake Matthews Jake Matthews Matthews going to you know pressure forward how is he going to get into the space of Philip Philip Roweip Philip Rowe Philip Philip Roweip Philip Rowe likes his C kicks he's going to really utilize that in this fight I believe and has to stick that jab in circle man I like his Jiu-Jitsu as well it's kind of funny he actually challenged uh Craig Jones in karate combat um you know it's a submission type you know competition you know and Craig Jones is one of the best guys in the world and I figur Craig Jones weighs way more than Philip Philip Rowe R and so I was kind of surprised that uh Philip Philip Rowe R even took that match and you know certain enough gets a submitted flying arm triangle or flying triangle I should say off the off the cage but yeah man Philip Philip Roweip Philip Rowe like obviously has enough confidence in himself to to take on someone like Craig Jones and think he's going to win and definitely got dusted it's kind of funny because Craig Jones said that he was drinking beers before that match and he still went out there in sitt Philip Philip Roweip Philip Rowe I was like damn that's a tough look for Philip Philip Rowe but man if this fight does hit the M I'm going with Philip Philip Rowe road to to win those grappling exchanges I think that he's going to out scramble Jake Matthews Jake Matthews Matthews if it does down and in the clinch I I feel like Philip Philip Rowe Ro can really Bank minutes in that area um it's so crazy how he decided to fight Neil Magny but that's you know IQ is one thing we can talk about for sure you never want to bet on a guy that has low fight IQ and Philip Philip Rowe Ro has definitely shown moments of doing that in his career but I'm going with Underdog I think that this line is a little bit wide I don't know if I'm going to be betting this fight you how they say scared money doesn't make money but I don't see foresee myself being forced to bet for a roll here in this fight if it gets you know Jake Matthews Jake Matthews Matthews - 200 for r - 165 you know maybe but man I just don't foresee myself laying juice on Jake Matthews Jake Matthews Matthews I respect his skill set I respect his experience I'm going with Philip Philip Rowe R I'm going with the underdog here to win this fight um I will say that C Jones said that he gave Philip Philip Roweip Philip Rowe staff infection and he kind of jok like dude I beat you twice because he had a deal with staff after but I mean that wasn't that long ago so hopefully you know all all good now but it is kind of weird that he had staff not too long ago so give me full row to win that fight I'm going go with a three round decision”
Moneyline since pick CLV +0%
◆ entry$2.40 close$2.40
Rowe’s moneyline — prop lines aren’t quoted · analyst stated $2.40
RK Roman Kopylov v César Almeida MONEYLINE WON
“I'm going with copy love guys so this is a striker vers Striker fight in the Pierce form man this should be exciting so Cesar Arma the former glory kickboxer has wins over has a win over Alex Morono Pereira over there and this guy can crack man if you watch him strike he's in my opinion the the cleaner guy in this fight um Roman Kopylov's especially his defense is a little bit you know worse than César Almeida but the overall MMA game being able to to get takedowns being able to defend takedowns um that clearly goes to Roman Kopylov he's the more developed overall fighter in my opinion you can say whereas César Almeida is just a beast on the feet man and it's funny because it's like okay if it's 50 minutes on the feet and Roman Kopylov doesn't you know enforce any grappling in this fight well then you would think Cesar should be a huge favor right but I'm going with Roman Kopylov kopa man I I I like the trajectory he's on I know you know some of the guys he's beating and getting crazy highlight finishes against aren't the you know highest level Fighters and what worries me the most is his striking defense man you you can pull apart little Clips if you watch tape where he's just running forward wide and it's just making me think like you don't think that Cesar is going to make him pay for doing stuff like that like of course he he's going to be able to snipe him but I actually do think that Roman Kopylov copy love has a little bit of a speed advantage in this fight I know that sounds crazy but I do think that Roman Kopylov's slightly quicker than caesara on the feet it's that as the fight goes I'm interested to see how it plays Will Roman Kopylov cop use any of the clinch will he try to get this fight down at all will the open man shoot on any takedowns here or will Cesar just keep this upright you know down blck and pick the sky Park eventually finish him someone's going to get cracked in this fight it's going to be super exciting I'm going with copyof man give me copy left to win this fight at plus money um I might be betting him so give me cop left to win that fight”
Line since pick CLV +0%
◆ entry$2.05 close$2.05
entry: Bally Bet · best in any region at publish
SS Sean Strickland v Paulo Costa MONEYLINE WON
“give me Paulo Costa just based off the fact that se's going to be like in his face he's going to be having to go forward he's going to be the one you know pushing the pace um and I just think that Paulo Costa has 25 minutes here to landine a big shot on Sean Strickland Sean Strickland Sean Strickland Stricklandland”
Line since pick CLV +0%
◆ entry$1.41 close$1.41
entry = analyst’s stated line (no snapshot at publish)
PC Paulo Costa v Sean Strickland PROP · KO/TKO LOST
“can be Paulo Paulo Costa Casa to win that fight via knockout in that third round”
Analyst’s stated line $3.00
analyst’s stated line — no market snapshots for this fight
DP Dustin Poirier v Islam Makhachev MONEYLINE LOST
“he's going to win inside the distance um in this fight but if he has staff I can see this fight you know getting extended”
Line since pick CLV −4%
◆ entry$5.93 close$6.20
entry: Pinnacle · best in any region at publish
IM Islam Makhachev v Dustin Poirier PROP · SUBMISSION WON
“give me Islam Makhachev have to win this fight I think he submits D por or wins be a ground pound in that second or third round but my official prediction I'm going Isam makev submission round two”
Moneyline since pick CLV −1%
◆ entry$1.19 close$1.20
Makhachev’s moneyline — prop lines aren’t quoted · analyst stated $1.17
BH Bassil Hafez v Mickey Gall MONEYLINE WON
“give me basil Bassil Hafez Jaz in this fight um yeah could be recency bias we could be hyping a guy off a loss like we sometimes do um but I think he wins this fight there's just not a single area I think Mickey Mickey Mickey Gallall Mickey Mickey Gallall is better than that”
Line since pick CLV +6%
◆ entry$1.37 close$1.29
entry: WynnBET · best in any region at publish
AM Alex Morono v Niko Price PROP · KO/TKO LOST
“give me Alex Morono Alex Morono Morono to win this fight as far as the method of Victory man I can see either way I can see him taking them down and controlling and securing rounds that way or I can see an exciting 15 stri minute striking fight where n price actually probably looks better than the plus 220 money line indicates until the end though I'm going with morono man like I said I do worry about that chin knocked out two times in a row and that most recent run against uh Robbie Lawler was a very bad look so give me Alex Morono Alex Morono Morono to win that fight um I'm going to go with the third round knockout”
Moneyline since pick CLV +0%
◆ entry$1.42 close$1.42
Morono’s moneyline — prop lines aren’t quoted · analyst stated $1.37
KH Kevin Holland v Michał Oleksiejczuk MONEYLINE WON
“give me Kevin Holland man I'm confident he wins this fight minus 300 not that confident but I do think that Kevin Holland wins that fight”
Line since pick CLV +3%
◆ entry$1.42 close$1.38
entry: WynnBET · best in any region at publish
RB Randy Brown v Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos PROP · DECISION WON
“I'm going with Randy Randy Brown Randy Brown almost minus two to one uh that's a lot of juice in my opinion because it's a pretty close fight and like I said the finishing upside in my opinion at least comes from do sanos I do worry though that he is 37 years old and his striking defense isn't the best and and I think that Randy Randy Brown Randy Brown's Long Tall range is going to split his guard so um I think Randy Randy Brown Randy Brown does win a decision in this fight”
Analyst’s stated line $1.56
analyst’s stated line — no market snapshots for this fight