MMA Prophecy
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UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier
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BEST PRICE Prophecy read Makhachev v Poirier Lightweight Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
The edge on this fight is Pro-onlyPro unlocks our fair line, the EV% and which side we back — plus AI deep research on every fight. Go Pro →
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Consensus105 picks · conf 87/99
Makhachev 77
28 Poirier
HEbWBP pick Makhachev
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Makhachev 27-1 VS 30-9 Poirier
5'10" height 5'9"
170 lb weight 156 lb
70" reach 72"
34 age 37
Southpaw stance Southpaw
3.4 strikes landed / min 5.3
49% striking accuracy 50%
1.9 strikes absorbed / min 4.3
66% striking defence 52%
3.9 takedowns / 15 min 1.2
49% takedown accuracy 36%
90% takedown defence 64%
1.1 submissions / 15 min 1.3
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
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Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
LS Lil Stray picks Islam Makhachev VALUE “I'm going with Islam Makhachev submission” $1.18
MC Main Card picks Islam Makhachev “Islam is superior to Dustin Poirier in almost all respects.”
RU RotoWire MMA / UFC picks Islam Makhachev “I like Islam Makhachev here ... Islam Makhachev's gonna have to wear him down ... I do like Islam Makhachev to win this”
PH Pound 4 Pound with Kamaru & Henry picks Islam Makhachev “I'm GNA go with ... I think Islam Makhachev for the win”
TD The Rambling Dad picks Islam Makhachev VALUE “Islam Makhachev said go”
BI Bigbsportselitepodcast picks Islam Makhachev “I wouldn't be surprised if Islam Makhachev wins” $1.20
PF Pickin' Fights picks Islam Makhachev “unfortunately Islam Mev over Dustin por”
BV Brax Vision picks Islam Makhachev “I'm G have to pick Islam Makhachev in this fight”
AM ANCHOR MMA picks Islam Makhachev VALUE “I'm pretty confident on my pick as Islam Makhachev 100% winning this I don't see any way Dustin Poirier wins this”
SM Send Me Location MMA picks Islam Makhachev “we have an overall MMA fighter in Islam Makhachev who is currently the champion honestly speaking I think it can go either way but one way or the other someone is definitely going to be going to sleep”
MB Michael Bisping picks Dustin Poirier “I do believe that if Islam Makhachev stands with him if he trades and let's remember every fight starts on the feet right if he stands for a little bit too long there is a chance so you're telling me there's a chance yeah and there is a chance because on the feet he's got better boxes”
WP We Want Picks picks Islam Makhachev VALUE “I think Islam Makhachev makev gets it done he is fighting Dustin poer Dustin Poirier is a guy you can never count out of a fight ever”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Makhachev27-1
W Maddalena Decision · R5 Nov '25
W Moicano Submission · R1 Jan '25
W Poirier Submission · R5 Jun '24
W Volkanovski KO/TKO · R1 Oct '23
W Volkanovski Decision · R5 Feb '23
Poirier30-9
L Holloway Decision · R5 Jul '25
L Makhachev Submission · R5 Jun '24
W Denis KO/TKO · R2 Mar '24
L Gaethje KO/TKO · R2 Jul '23
W Chandler Submission · R3 Nov '22