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UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier
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BEST PRICE Prophecy read Dawson v Solecki Lightweight Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
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Consensus62 picks · conf 73/99
Dawson 55
7 Solecki
MHWPMB pick Dawson
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Dawson 23-3-1 VS 13-5 Solecki
5'10" height 5'9"
156 lb weight 155 lb
72" reach 70"
32 age 32
Switch stance Orthodox
3.1 strikes landed / min 2.0
52% striking accuracy 56%
2.0 strikes absorbed / min 1.8
45% striking defence 48%
3.6 takedowns / 15 min 2.2
38% takedown accuracy 46%
57% takedown defence 20%
1.2 submissions / 15 min 1.4
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
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Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
TD The Rambling Dad picks Grant Dawson VALUE “I'm going with Grant Dawson”
PF Pickin' Fights picks Grant Dawson VALUE “I'm going with Grant Dawson here” $1.31
WT WagerTalk TV: Sports Picks and Betting Tips picks Grant Dawson VALUE “pick Grant Grant Dawson”
AM ANCHOR MMA picks Grant Dawson VALUE “I think Grant Dawson has this one in the bag um it sucks for Joe Solecki he's coming off of his last loss he got [__] armbarred slammed he got stuck in an armar and basically got his [__] ass rampaged um I just don't see any way this wins as Grant Dawson trains with such a way better team”
SA Stokastic DFS - Daily Fantasy Sports Advice picks Joe Solecki “I don't have all that much interest in Joe Solecki”
SA Stokastic DFS - Daily Fantasy Sports Advice picks Grant Dawson VALUE “I'll pick Grant Dawson to win by decision”
MK Morning Kombat picks Grant Dawson “do you care about Grant Dawson coming back here at lightweight against Joe Solecki”
TA The True Analyst picks Grant Dawson “I'm liking Mickey Gallrant Dawson here I'm going to say Mickey Gallrant Dawson by decision”
WP We Want Picks picks Grant Dawson VALUE “I do think Grant Dawson wins this fight”
KU Kunath picks Grant Dawson “my favorite play Above 9,000 this week is jalon Almeida”
KC Keg & Company | A Betting Collective picks Grant Dawson “Grant Dawson's the pick for me” $1.20
WP We Want Picks picks Grant Dawson VALUE “I do think Grant Dawson Grant Dawson Dawson wins this fight” $1.27
Recent form last five, most recent first
Dawson23-3-1
W Rębecki Submission · R3 May '26
L Torres KO/TKO · R1 Dec '25
W Ferreira Decision · R3 Jan '25
W García KO/TKO · R2 Oct '24
W Solecki Decision · R3 Jun '24
Solecki13-5
L Aliev Decision · R3 Jan '25
L Dawson Decision · R3 Jun '24
L Klose KO/TKO · R1 Dec '23
W III Submission · R2 Feb '23
W Coelho Decision · R3 Jun '22