Monday Movement: UFC Mexico Betting Secrets - Early Picks to Win Big!

“could have got Kevin Borjas at a plus 400 that line was still available now it's a plus 280 we'll go over that um we had a great week last week again could have been even better we lost the last two fights in the card and still profited 14.85% that is the goal I think that's realistic with the value that we have on these but I will be honest if that value starts going away and the market catches up to us then it's going to be smaller amounts of units and maybe at that point though we can uh you know crank up our unit size a little bit but for now let's take advantage let's capitalize on all of this value that we're seeing and let's get into it first fight of the night and and I have uh money on this already at a plus 165 I have two units at plus 165 I'm going to review all the bets at the end uh so you can get your bets in but I'll let you know the fights that I do have bets on Austin Hubbard at a plus 165 I have two units on and this one has really just stayed where it's at did open at a plus 130 uh rapidly money came in on the other side and it's gone down a little bit and it's now back up to a plus 170 um my metrics show that Austin Hub should be favored here um and he is going up against Melquizael Costa and I actually had a bet on Melquizael Costa um in his last fight against Evan Elder that got cancelled so now this one's happening and my numbers say Austin hubard that he is a better fighter than Evan Elder and I agree with that um and mados was a plus 135 against Elder so go figure they pull these numbers out of who knows where um but the public gets a chance to bet on it and an case we are going to take that Austin Hubbard line we have it at plus 165 so obviously take it at plus 170 um I think it comes down but you never know nowadays so tread lightly I have two units I would like to get a third unit on it so I hope money comes in on MarQuel Mederos so I can put more on Austin hover but there you go okay this is one where really you only would have got the best line like I did if you would have bet it a few weeks ago so even if I would have released this on Saturday that line was gone but I will tell you I've already put another two units at this lesser line so I started out right here it's barely even showing it I got Melquizael Costa at a plus 195 there it is and this just shot down after that at one point even touched oh that plus 115 is where it open so it touched plus 150 plus 146 you know what this tells me this tells me one big better came in on Christian Rodriguez altered the line because look at this Jump That Could it's such a small amount of time that it's not money trickling in it's a big bet coming in moving this line and then they realizing oh that's not consensus most people like um Costa here so I put another two units at plus 121 I put two units at plus 195 I a combined plus 158 I have M uh uh I'm not gonna say I want to say Miguel so I'm gonna call him Melly Costa Melly Costa I had um as a I have as a 62% favorite to win the fight so at any plus money um that's a bet um and especially at a plus 195 I think this was just completely mispriced from the beginning I jumped on it early jumped on it late I have a combined uh plus 158 four units out on this and we'll review that at the end but I'm still saying this is a good bet I don't know if it's ever going to come back I think it's going to sit around here I honestly think this could flip because he should be favored and it looks like the Market's catching up so I would take this now on Costa okay this one's interesting this has moved a lot today I liked Vince Morales uh let's see where it opened here I liked him at this plus 300 um came down to plus 240 then back up um and so it's been kind of back and forth back and forth they grabbed him at a plus 235 although I could have got him better here earlier but then I also just grabbed him at a plus 285 either way you cut it I have him a 45% chance of winning and so this is a bet for sure it's got Chris Duncan Vibes all over it doesn't it boys um was a great bet last week but if it does have Chris Duncan Vibes that means we're going to see more money come in on rul roses Jr and so I'm not telling you to take it at 285 but I did I did and I have two units and that gives me room for more I do think money may come in on R roses Jr but I'm not playing around with these markets anymore if I have clear clear value I'm taking it also if you look it across the board here what are we seeing a lot lower than a plus 285 we still got plus 240 here plus 244 now I will say bet on lines usually early they're usually sharp but I'm grabbing it anyways little outlier 285 here can't find it anywhere else bet online betonline.ag best sports book in the game and you want to see why look at this look how tight this is a minus 325 a plus 285 look at right here what bvat is hanging on us look at this ripoff minus 340 so the favorites higher and the dog is lower they're taking 70 points here bet online best book in the business taking 40 points you kidding me go bet online they're great okay next one Vince Pachel um haven't seen much movement but this movement here made me grab him for sure um I have him like a 43% chance he's definitely an underdog in this but not a plus 375 veteran fighter rth Garcia also very good does get wins is reliable but not at that number so there you go that's all I'm going to say on that that could anywhere so do what you want with it I'd bet it now but I could also see people cuz they just love the parlay just stick Rafa García a parlay see what happens I'm kidding don't do that stop putting minus 500s in parlays just everyone needs to stop it's actually keep going because then I get to bet Vince pachelle at like a plus 600 right before the fight good so that's that one not my strongest uh Le uh bet or lean it's one unit so far so we'll just stick with that for now this one here is is a nice siiz betat Carlos vagara C.J. Vergara as they call him against Edgar charz and super interesting one here for me this should be so much closer to 5050 um vagara I have favored to win this fight um if I take a look at my my odds here um vagara I'm sitting at a 59% chance and so you give me a plus 240 with a guy I think has a 59 9% chance and that's a big bet so we have three units on vagara um looks like it opened around the plus 190 is stuck around there for about a week and then boom money coming in on Edgar charez and so tread tread lightly um I have vagara everywhere from a plus 215 to a plus two uh 65 now he's a plus 240 so I think my combined on Mr varara I know I have three units and that is to win 6.95 at a combined plus 232 so there you go I would definitely take C.J. Vergara varara this should be 5050 and you know what let's take the opportunity here because I think this one not only is it off just on the metrics but it doesn't make any sense so let's dive into vagara now he has had up and down uh UFC career but why is that and I'll tell you why I've watched every single C.J. Vergara vagaro fight and this is why ramazan tamarov they're throwing him in with lions ramazan tamarov he was a plus 260 and shouldn't this just tell you everything he was a plus 260 against ramazan tamoro he's a plus two uh 40 against edar sharez make it make sense um he was a plus 405 against asuv who just fought for uh Contender like the contender to the flyweight Championship um he beats venius Salvador as a minus 175 favorite he beats Daniel D Silva as a minus 240 he loses to tetsuro Tyra one of the best in the division he beats Christian Rodriguez as a plus 355 lose to OD Osborne is good fighter as a plus 170 beats Bruno so Bruno Rodriguez in the contender series beats him with a kotk he's dangerous and if you look at let's just look at his losses OD Osborne good UFC fighter tetsu Tyra high level at the top of the division oo MV at the top of the division ramazan timov uh I think will be at the top of the division so that's who he's lost to top of the division sorry Édgar Cháirez is not there and let me tell you why here we go he loses to Joshua van he beats the same guy Daniel Del Silva so that was a good win but same guy there was a no contest against Daniel dilva um he loses to TSU ryra and he beats some no guys in Fury um he loses to Clayton Carpenter who's a very good fighter but if so just take a look at that he hasn't beaten anybody he's he's almost a minus 400 he beat Daniel D Silva that's it he's beaten one guy as a minus 515 in the UFC sorry not enough give me uh C.J. Vergara vagara all day and I think the everything about it the numbers back it up the uh strength of schedule backs it up I think vagara is a very tough out char usually kind of relies on getting that submission um he's a good standup and so is vagara it's going to be a 5050 fight and I think we got 9% on vagara give me that plus 240 all day so we got three units on that oh love it um next one we got to go all the way up we got a lot of fights we're not getting action on um I would say keep an eye out for this Julia pastry line um Line's getting good good good we're getting a plus 185 we can get above plus 200 there's value on that but no bet as of right now Drew Dober Manuel Torres at first Manuel Torres had value that line has gone way way down he opened as a dog plus 140 plus 155 and then boom dropped off the face of the Earth he is now minus 129 wait on that for sure I think we might be able to get a plus 140 on Drew Dober people are going to think he's out of it they're going to see the Steam on Torres they're going to want to go after that so I would say wait on Dober but Dober I give a 55% chance of winning and there may be value at that plus 150 if we can get it I call that Blackjack value where we pay straight up money to win Blackjack prices so if we can get that plus 150 we take it okay and then the final two fights tonight I Go reverse on both of those and this is why I'm going to start getting these out early to you guys because I apologize other than those on the live stream which I guess is Poetic Justice you guys are watching my stream thank you so much you get bets early um although I think this thing moves back because everyone's going to bet Joey body bag Fifer Fifer was a minus 500- 550 uh and gasum was a plus 400 here so if we take a look Kevin Borjas right here available at plus 400 from March 17th until yesterday the 22nd and even this morning we had a plus 390 bet him at plus 400 bet him at plus 395 I have 2.5 units um on him at plus 398 combined and that's TN 9.95 someone came in maybe they heard what I was saying and they dumped it on uh Mr Gastelum so he's down to a plus 280 still value now full disclosure my metrics say 55% that's a tough one for me to get to but Kevin gastam is that dude and if he's serious about training which I have seen him training down in Mexico now I wish it was a five round fight it's a three round that is a little disappointing Joe feifer losses five rounder to Hermanson I think that would have been a much better situation for us it's only three rounds however gum's smart and I think he can pick his spots and potentially win some rounds I see this one potentially Going the Distance gum is tough as they come very experienced and feifer against the lower level guys he knocks them out against some of the higher level guys you know he's still good he's great fighter you know gets big shots and can get the win there but if we take a look at Gaston's last couple of fights now he's been in some he's doing some grappling tournaments that's scary um he does knock out Mark Andre barut he's kind of a middle level fighter he was in minus 310 and so again if we just take a look things don't quite add up Mark Andre barud to plus 260 Kevin gam a plus 400 go figure on that one lost to Jack Hermanson as a minus 236 five rounds though that's what makes me a little nervous um you know submits Abdul uh razak alhassen lower level Gerald mirar lower level but a decision um that doesn't make a ton of sense oh it's a it's a grappling match he beats Gerald mirart in a grappling match okay that's scary beats Gerald mirart TKO punches so maybe that's why he lost he was already he was afraid he was going to punch him no I'm kidding but um yeah Gerald mirart minus 175 so I don't think gum's going to have much of a wrestling Advantage here I do think he's really sharpening it up that and you know uh Joe Fifer may just be so much better uh he's got a better career in front of him he could be a future Champion depending on where things go um he's 28 years old gum even though he's not that old is uh on the tail end of his career but still we're making a pure numbers play Gaston's 33 pure numbers play uh this was at welterweight that was at welterweight middleweight here Beats wins a decision against Chris Curtis that could be an example Chris Curtis against I guarantee you Chris Curtis versus Joe feifer would not be that far apart um so there you go do I think he wins it maybe but I do think we have value at that plus 400 number so we're taking it last fight of the night and if anyone ever is wondering if I bet favorites here you go I'm just betting value Brandon Moreno here took him at a minus 185 this is an example and we're going to dive into this where the underdog is surprisingly overvalued in my opinion and it comes from one fight Steve Erceg let's take a look Steve Erceg was fighting some of the lower lower level guys in the division so he comes out of Australia and then he goes on a run in the UFC he beats David Doric as a plus 230 he beats alesandro Costa who is a good fighter at a minus 194 beats Matt Schnell via KO as a minus 460 mat Schnell is not very he's middle level to lower level fighter and then this is the fight that gave him all the praise all the credit Alexander P Pantoja five round decision if he wins that fifth round he wins the fight he loses as an underdog and then there four he comes in against K Kai car France as a minus 250 and he gets tko'ed and this is where the alarm Bell should have went off he was way overvalued in this fight against Kai car France and now as a dog he in my opinion he's being overvalued against Brandon Moreno he really shouldn't be fighting Moreno in my opinion they need to be giving him not the the contenders in the division they need to be giving him right below that he's a good fighter but he's going to keep getting beat by these guys Brandon Moreno just went out there and absolutely styled on Amir abazi um I had him in that fight as a slight favorite again we can take a look at that what that number was it was a minus 175 I remember I took that all day Amir Alba was on a run some people were projecting the upset did not happen I think the same thing's going to happen here uh Moreno is gonna be too fast too long EG's not gonna be able to catch him not gonna be able to wrestle him and I think in Mexico give me Brandon Moreno all day I have 3.7 units to win two on Mareno at minus5 I think that's a fantastic bet um for you guys that like to Parlay I would put them in every parlay um I think it's a great line you're getting value you rarely do on the favorites so that is a recommendation for me um there's another bet here I like David Martinez as the minus 400 but it's not showing real value if you want to slap him with Brandon Moreno in the parlay not a bad idea but I think also you can just go straight up at minus 193 lay a little chalk on them um because I think this is the best bet of the night I rarely get 85 percenters and I have it right here in Brandon Moreno and I happen to agree um if you take a look at the line move movement on it this is ridiculous but this is also not real no one was going to get the plus 105 that was gone in minutes see it opens at 712 at plus 105 and at 715 it's minus 1555 and then it's at 801 it's- 175 and it really has held there and creeped up I see nothing but this going higher um unless the Market's just really that dumb and I don't think it's that dumb I think that he will be putting parlays I think the market tends overvalue favorites um and it doesn't know when there is value on a favorite but I think Moreno in Mexico a lot of people can talk themselves into throwing him in in every single parlay so my recommendation is bet it now um if you bet it now and the line comes down I'll tell you one thing if I get a minus 150 because money comes pouring in on Steve EG this is going to be my biggest play of the year five units minimum on it probably more I might have a bet to win five units that's how confident I feel on this Brandon Moreno in Mexico City I think it's I think it's a uh it's not a lock nothing's a lock I think it's an 85% chance of winning which is about as locky as you're going to get so there you go guys let's uh switch over here to the bets that we have recap of the bets for EVENT_DETAILS here uh I'm going to have them right above me Austin hover plus 165 we put two units to win 3.3 units on that meley Costa at plus 158 we have four units to win 6.32 units Vinc Pichel one unit to win 3.75 units C.J. Vergara varara three units to win 6.95 units that's at plus 232 Vince Morales is at plus 260 and we have two units to win 5.2 units Kevin gastam we got early at a plus 398 and we have two units to win 9.95 units sorry we have 2.5 units to win 9.95 units Brandon Moreno at a minus 185 we have 3.7 units to win two units on that fight so that is uh everything we have on this card um it's a big card so far we probably will add more we have 18.2 units so far on the night and we'll see there may be more this is going to be the last event of our quarter so we're going to re-evaluate we've obviously been doing very well on our bets um but are going to reevaluate how much we've gone up and how much we're going to put our unit size up it may be a 50% increase could be 100% increase on our unit size so there you go if you guys have been trailing me this entire time you guys will also be up um if you would have followed all my bets exactly it you'd be up 78.2 four units since the beginning of the year these are all documented they're all um on the videos so we've really had a very nice run here and we have placed a cumulative of 163 units and so that's a 47. 78% Roi on our bets and we're averaging 7.82 units per event in profit so there you go guys I'm very excited about this last one I think we have value on this as well I think it's even a safer card I think we're definitely going to make money we'll see if we're going to crush like we did last week we could um but for sure I think we're going to have a good week I think we have some very nice uh mix of favor with big underdogs and I think it's going to do us very well um in this event and uh there you go guys so look forward to talking to you guys on Wednesday we're going to have the uh midweek uh odds checkout we're going to see where we're at and then we'll have the Friday Faceoff video and then I look to put out uh UFC 105 to you on Saturday morning so stay tuned on that and we'll keep rocking here so that we can see each other at the window”

“I have two units on and this one has really just stayed where it's at did open at a plus 130 uh rapidly money came in on the other side and it's gone down a little bit and it's now back up to a plus 170 um my metrics show that Austin Hub should be favored here um and he is going up against Melquizael Costa and I actually had a bet on Melquizael Costa um in his last fight against Evan Elder that got cancelled so now this one's happening and my numbers say Austin hubard that he is a better fighter than Evan Elder and I agree with that um and mados was a plus 135 against Elder so go figure they pull these numbers out of who knows where um but the public gets a chance to bet on it and an case we are going to take that Austin Hubbard line we have it at plus 165 so obviously take it at plus 170 um I think it comes down but you never know nowadays so tread lightly I have two units I would like to get a third unit on it so I hope money comes in on MarQuel Mederos so I can put more on Austin hover but there you go”

“I got Melquizael Costa at a plus 195 there it is and this just shot down after that at one point even touched oh that plus 115 is where it open so it touched plus 150 plus 146 you know what this tells me this tells me one big better came in on Christian Rodriguez altered the line because look at this Jump That Could it's such a small amount of time that it's not money trickling in it's a big bet coming in moving this line and then they realizing oh that's not consensus most people like um Costa here so I put another two units at plus 121 I put two units at plus 195 I a combined plus 158 I have M uh uh I'm not gonna say I want to say Miguel so I'm gonna call him Melly Costa Melly Costa I had um as a I have as a 62% favorite to win the fight so at any plus money um that's a bet um and especially at a plus 195 I think this was just completely mispriced from the beginning”

“this one's interesting this has moved a lot today I liked Vince Morales uh let's see where it opened here I liked him at this plus 300 um came down to plus 240 then back up um and so it's been kind of back and forth back and forth they grabbed him at a plus 235 although I could have got him better here earlier but then I also just grabbed him at a plus 285 either way you cut it I have him a 45% chance of winning and so this is a bet for sure it's got Chris Duncan Vibes all over it doesn't it boys um was a great bet last week but if it does have Chris Duncan Vibes that means we're going to see more money come in on rul roses Jr and so I'm not telling you to take it at 285 but I did I did and I have two units and that gives me room for more I do think money may come in on R roses Jr but I'm not playing around with these markets anymore if I have clear clear value I'm taking it”

“Vince Pachel um haven't seen much movement but this movement here made me grab him for sure um I have him like a 43% chance he's definitely an underdog in this but not a plus 375 veteran fighter rth Garcia also very good does get wins is reliable but not at that number so there you go that's all I'm going to say on that that could anywhere so do what you want with it I'd bet it now but I could also see people cuz they just love the parlay just stick Rafa García a parlay see what happens I'm kidding don't do that stop putting minus 500s in parlays just everyone needs to stop it's actually keep going because then I get to bet Vince pachelle at like a plus 600 right before the fight good so that's that one not my strongest uh Le uh bet or lean it's one unit so far so we'll just stick with that for now”

“this one here is is a nice siiz betat Carlos vagara C.J. Vergara as they call him against Edgar charz and super interesting one here for me this should be so much closer to 5050 um vagara I have favored to win this fight um if I take a look at my my odds here um vagara I'm sitting at a 59% chance and so you give me a plus 240 with a guy I think has a 59 9% chance and that's a big bet so we have three units on vagara um looks like it opened around the plus 190 is stuck around there for about a week and then boom money coming in on Edgar charez and so tread tread lightly um I have vagara everywhere from a plus 215 to a plus two uh 65 now he's a plus 240 so I think my combined on Mr varara I know I have three units and that is to win 6.95 at a combined plus 232 so there you go I would definitely take C.J. Vergara varara this should be 5050”

“last fight of the night and if anyone ever is wondering if I bet favorites here you go I'm just betting value Brandon Moreno here took him at a minus 185 this is an example and we're going to dive into this where the underdog is surprisingly overvalued in my opinion and it comes from one fight Steve Erceg let's take a look Steve Erceg was fighting some of the lower lower level guys in the division so he comes out of Australia and then he goes on a run in the UFC he beats David Doric as a plus 230 he beats alesandro Costa who is a good fighter at a minus 194 beats Matt Schnell via KO as a minus 460 mat Schnell is not very he's middle level to lower level fighter and then this is the fight that gave him all the praise all the credit Alexander P Pantoja five round decision if he wins that fifth round he wins the fight he loses as an underdog and then there four he comes in against K Kai car France as a minus 250 and he gets tko'ed and this is where the alarm Bell should have went off he was way overvalued in this fight against Kai car France and now as a dog he in my opinion he's being overvalued against Brandon Moreno he really shouldn't be fighting Moreno in my opinion they need to be giving him not the the contenders in the division they need to be giving him right below that he's a good fighter but he's going to keep getting beat by these guys Brandon Moreno just went out there and absolutely styled on Amir abazi um I had him in that fight as a slight favorite again we can take a look at that what that number was it was a minus 175 I remember I took that all day Amir Alba was on a run some people were projecting the upset did not happen I think the same thing's going to happen here uh Moreno is gonna be too fast too long EG's not gonna be able to catch him not gonna be able to wrestle him and I think in Mexico give me Brandon Moreno all day I have 3.7 units to win two on Mareno at minus5 I think that's a fantastic bet um for you guys that like to Parlay I would put them in every parlay um I think it's a great line you're getting value you rarely do on the favorites so that is a recommendation for me”