MMA Prophecy
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UFC on ESPN: Moreno vs. Erceg
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BM SE Moreno vs ErcegMain Card · Flyweight MT DD Torres vs DoberMain Card · Lightweight ÉC CV Cháirez vs VergaraMain Card · Flyweight RJ VM Jr. vs MoralesMain Card · Bantamweight DM SO Martínez vs OliveiraMain Card · Bantamweight KB RR Borjas vs RodríguezMain Card · Catchweight AG JM Gautier vs MedinaPreliminary Card · Middleweight MC CR Costa vs RodriguezPreliminary Card · Featherweight LG JP Godinez vs PolastriPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight RG VP García vs PichelPreliminary Card · Lightweight JE GM Emmers vs MirandaPreliminary Card · Featherweight MM AH Mederos vs HubbardPreliminary Card · Lightweight
BEST PRICE We back Moreno over Erceg · Flyweight Our fair value$1.34 Paddy Power pays above fair $1.44
Where to back Moreno best price · region · EV vs fair $1.34
US FanDuel $1.43 +7%
UK Paddy Power $1.44 +7%
EU Everygame $1.43 +7%
AU SportsBet $1.42 +6%
Consensus93 picks · conf 82/99
Moreno 80
13 Erceg
SMWOBF pick Moreno
How it endsmethod calls · Moreno · crowd line
KO/TKO 17 $4.57
Submission 7 $11.11
Decision 33 $2.36
None 1 $77.77
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Moreno 23-9-2 VS 13-4 Erceg
5'7" height 5'8"
125 lb weight 125 lb
70" reach 68"
32 age 30
Orthodox stance Orthodox
4.0 strikes landed / min 4.4
43% striking accuracy 48%
3.5 strikes absorbed / min 4.2
60% striking defence 53%
1.6 takedowns / 15 min 1.2
46% takedown accuracy 26%
64% takedown defence 60%
0.4 submissions / 15 min 0.5
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market75% vs 69%
Consensus80 of 93 analysts
Sharpest angleMoreno by Decision — 33 of 58 method calls
Recommendation Back Moreno @ $1.44 · fair $1.34 +7% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
CR Capitán Rafucho picks Brandon Moreno VALUE “Brandon Moreno is going to win by a decision.”
GP Greedo Plays picks Steve Erceg “with their EVENT_DETAILS predictions that's later today Brandon Moreno Steve Erceg in Mexico City make sure to go check out that video and greo plays MMA”
GP Greedo Plays picks Brandon Moreno “with their EVENT_DETAILS predictions that's later today Brandon Moreno Steve Erceg in Mexico City make sure to go check out that video and greo plays MMA”
GM GLO MMA picks Brandon Moreno “I'm picking Brandon Moreno”
CP Capper Comparison Picks picks Brandon Moreno “I'm picking Brandon Moreno I'm on him I think he's he's a like a whole different level above Steve Erceg”
SL SUPER LUTAS picks Steve Erceg “eSteve Ercegue vem de duas derrotas e tenta se reaproximar”
MP MMA Prophecy picks Steve Erceg “I'm going to go with Steve Erceg to get the surprise win here”
MP MMA Prophecy picks Brandon Moreno “My pick's going to be NOT_IN_ROSTER_20. I'm going to go with Steve Erceg to get the surprise win here”
LE LAS 8 ESQUINAS picks Brandon Moreno VALUE “yo diría quizás una decisión o nocouto técnico tardío y si llegase la decisión yo digo tres round a dos para de Brandon Brandon Moreno Brandon Moreno” $1.38
TS The Interim Title Show picks Brandon Moreno “I do think Brandon Brandon Moreno will beat Steve Ursuch.”
FF Fights & Frags picks Brandon Moreno “my pick for this fight I'm G to go with Brandon Moreno”
MA Mitch Martial Arts picks Steve Erceg “that last fight's going to be pretty good though Steve Erceg and Brandon Moreno 's Underdog I'm not really sure why I feel like he has very clean boxing and he has the the length on Brandon Moreno but we'll see I'm certainly rooting for for a second I I like the guy so”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Moreno23-9-2
L Kavanagh Decision · R5 Feb '26
L Taira KO/TKO · R2 Dec '25
W Erceg Decision · R5 Mar '25
W Albazi Decision · R5 Nov '24
L Royval Decision · R5 Feb '24
Erceg13-4
W Elliott Decision · R3 May '26
W Osbourne Decision · R3 Aug '25
L Moreno Decision · R5 Mar '25
L Kara-France KO/TKO · R1 Aug '24
L Pantoja Decision · R5 May '24