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UFC on ESPN: Moreno vs. Erceg
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BM SE Moreno vs ErcegMain Card · Flyweight MT DD Torres vs DoberMain Card · Lightweight ÉC CV Cháirez vs VergaraMain Card · Flyweight RJ VM Jr. vs MoralesMain Card · Bantamweight DM SO Martínez vs OliveiraMain Card · Bantamweight KB RR Borjas vs RodríguezMain Card · Catchweight AG JM Gautier vs MedinaPreliminary Card · Middleweight MC CR Costa vs RodriguezPreliminary Card · Featherweight LG JP Godinez vs PolastriPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight RG VP García vs PichelPreliminary Card · Lightweight JE GM Emmers vs MirandaPreliminary Card · Featherweight MM AH Mederos vs HubbardPreliminary Card · Lightweight
BEST PRICE We back Daniel Medina over Gautier · Middleweight Our fair value$4.21 SportsBet pays above fair $4.60
Where to back Daniel Medina best price · region · EV vs fair $4.21
US FanDuel $4.60 +9%
UK Betway $4.33 +3%
EU Pinnacle $4.49 +7%
AU SportsBet $4.60 +9%
Consensus31 picks · conf 54/99
Gautier 22
9 Daniel Medina
WPBDMP pick Gautier
How it endsmethod calls · Daniel Medina · crowd line
KO/TKO 2 $18.92
Submission 3 $12.62
Decision 4 $9.46
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Gautier 10-1 VS 11-6 Daniel Medina
6'4" height 6'0"
186 lb weight 186 lb
81" reach 74"
24 age 35
Switch stance Orthodox
5.3 strikes landed / min 5.6
71% striking accuracy 62%
1.2 strikes absorbed / min 2.6
56% striking defence 68%
0.0 takedowns / 15 min 2.8
0% takedown accuracy 40%
90% takedown defence 90%
0.0 submissions / 15 min 1.5
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market24% vs 22%
Consensus9 of 31 analysts
Sharpest angleDaniel Medina by Decision — 4 of 9 method calls
Recommendation Back Daniel Medina @ $4.60 · fair $4.21 +9% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
TD The Rambling Dad picks José Daniel Medina “José Daniel Medina by submission.”
CP Capper Comparison Picks picks José Daniel Medina VALUE “I'm taking José Daniel Medina the big Underdog by submission over fraud checkum a tbay Ateba Gautier”
UC UFC - CELEBRITIES AND CLASSICS picks Ateba Gautier “theyve got José Daniel Medina versus Ateba Gautier I'm saying fight starts round three or Ateba Gautier to win”
LE LAS 8 ESQUINAS picks Ateba Gautier “si tiene que ganar Ateba Gautier, pero cuidadito si esta pelea pasa el primer round porque se la puede llevar el boliviano” $1.22
SG Savant of the Fight Game picks Ateba Gautier “I think Aiva Gatier is able to get the job done in that one.”
WO WorstTakeMMA picks Ateba Gautier VALUE “Gautierre is making his UFC debut. He's got an 83% knockout rate.”
WP We Want Picks picks Ateba Gautier VALUE “Atabas should win this fight.”
E! Erok ! picks José Daniel Medina “we're going José Daniel Medina”
PA PattyMMA picks Ateba Gautier “I'm taking that pick everybody's picking him so I'm picking him too Ateba Gautier Ateba Gautier Gautier”
ME MMA EXPERTS picks Ateba Gautier VALUE “I am picking Ateba Gautier to win”
PS Plays & Fades Sports picks Ateba Gautier VALUE “give me Goate.”
WP We Want Picks picks Ateba Gautier VALUE “I like Ateba Gautier to get it done José Daniel Medina is just a little bit too hitable durable but I like Ateba Gautier to get it done”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Gautier10-1
W Diaz KO/TKO · R2 May '26
W Pulyaev Decision · R3 Jan '26
W Vines KO/TKO · R1 Oct '25
W Medina KO/TKO · R1 Mar '25
Daniel Medina11-6
L Gautier KO/TKO · R1 Mar '25
L Reese Decision · R3 Aug '24