MMA Prophecy
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UFC on ESPN: Moreno vs. Erceg
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BM SE Moreno vs ErcegMain Card · Flyweight MT DD Torres vs DoberMain Card · Lightweight ÉC CV Cháirez vs VergaraMain Card · Flyweight RJ VM Jr. vs MoralesMain Card · Bantamweight DM SO Martínez vs OliveiraMain Card · Bantamweight KB RR Borjas vs RodríguezMain Card · Catchweight AG JM Gautier vs MedinaPreliminary Card · Middleweight MC CR Costa vs RodriguezPreliminary Card · Featherweight LG JP Godinez vs PolastriPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight RG VP García vs PichelPreliminary Card · Lightweight JE GM Emmers vs MirandaPreliminary Card · Featherweight MM AH Mederos vs HubbardPreliminary Card · Lightweight
BEST PRICE We back Martínez over Oliveira · Bantamweight Our fair value$1.14 Everygame pays above fair $1.26
Where to back Martínez best price · region · EV vs fair $1.14
US Wind Creek (Betfred PA) $1.19 +4%
UK Betway $1.12 -2%
EU Everygame $1.26 +11%
AU SportsBet $1.13 -1%
Consensus47 picks · conf 67/99
Martínez 42
5 Oliveira
SWPBTD pick Martínez
How it endsmethod calls · Martínez · crowd line
KO/TKO 36 $1.20
Decision 2 $21.65
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Martínez 21-3-1 VS 18-7 Oliveira
5'9" height 5'4"
221 lb weight 144 lb
67" reach 72"
— age 35
Orthodox stance Orthodox
4.1 strikes landed / min 3.5
42% striking accuracy 41%
3.0 strikes absorbed / min 3.7
72% striking defence 48%
2.1 takedowns / 15 min 1.8
43% takedown accuracy 64%
85% takedown defence 72%
1.0 submissions / 15 min 1.2
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market88% vs 79%
Consensus42 of 47 analysts
Sharpest angleMartínez by KO/TKO — 36 of 38 method calls
Recommendation Back Martínez @ $1.26 · fair $1.14 +11% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
CP Capper Comparison Picks picks David Martínez “I'm gonna go with David Martinez I'm confident but I'm not putting him any partly at minus 450 or whatever the hell he was” $1.22
TS The Open Mat Show picks David Martínez “I really don't see how David Martínez can this up unless Saimon Oliveira looking too sharp and David Martínez probably guess I got David Martínez TKO”
SL SUPER LUTAS picks David Martínez VALUE “acho que o David Martínez vence o Saimon Oliveira”
UG UFC Genie picks David Martínez VALUE “I think David Martínez at plus 115 instead of minus 485 is a great line. So, I'll take that all day.” $2.15
MP MMA Prophecy picks David Martínez “I'm gonna pick him. I am gonna pick David David Martínez, but I hate this fight”
LE LAS 8 ESQUINAS picks David Martínez VALUE “pinta para mucho la estrella mexicana. ... va a salir con el triunfo” $1.22
SO SOKRATES-MMA picks David Martínez “gehe ich mit David Martinez”
WO WorstTakeMMA picks David Martínez VALUE “David Martínez who is making his UFC debut coming in on a seven-fight win streak has an 82% knockout rate.”
NM Nipple to Nipple MMA picks Saimon Oliveira “I'm going to go with um Saimon Oliveira”
WP We Want Picks picks David Martínez VALUE “David Martínez should light this nerd up.”
E! Erok ! picks David Martínez “I'll put it on David Martinez”
PS Plays & Fades Sports picks David Martínez VALUE “give me Gabriel Martinez.”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Martínez21-3-1
W Vera Decision · R3 Feb '26
W Font Decision · R3 Sep '25
W Oliveira KO/TKO · R1 Mar '25
Oliveira18-7
L Lacerda Submission · R2 Oct '25
L Martínez KO/TKO · R1 Mar '25
L Marcos KO/TKO · R2 Jan '23
L Gravely Decision · R3 Jan '22