UFC 319: du Plessis vs. Chimaev Β· breakdown
Picks, timestamped
entry price locked at moment of pick Β· line tracked since Β· best price in any region Β· close = day before the event
TE
Tim Elliott
v Kai Asakura
MONEYLINE
WON
Tim Elliott
v Kai Asakura
MONEYLINE
WON
βTim Tim Elliott as a dog plus 250. He's a decent wrestler. He averages over three takedowns per 15 minutes. And he's gotten a takedown in 11 straight fights. Kai Asakura was taken down three times in his lone EVENT_DETAILS fight. Also, Tim's got that awkward ass style, no pun intended. He can be hard to hit at times. He's tough guy to fight.β
Line since pick
CLV β8%
β entry$3.55
β
close$3.85
entry: LiveScore Bet Β· best in any region at publish
KA
Kai Asakura
v Tim Elliott
PROP Β· DECISION
LOST
Kai Asakura
v Tim Elliott
PROP Β· DECISION
LOST
βif you do like Kai Asakura, take him by decision. plus 140. Only five of his 21 pro wins have come by decision, but I don't think he's going to submit Tim Tim Elliott and he hasn't had a sub in 9 years. Also, Tim Elliott hasn't been finished from strikes in 16 years, so I could definitely see this one going the distance.β
Moneyline since pick
CLV β4%
β entry$1.30
β
close$1.35
Asakuraβs moneyline β prop lines arenβt quoted Β· analyst stated $2.40
MP
Michael Page
v Jared Cannonier
MONEYLINE
WON
Michael Page
v Jared Cannonier
MONEYLINE
WON
βIf you guys are looking for anything else to take Michael Page money line is minus 180, so you'd have to parlay it. He's three years younger. He's going to have a 2-in reach advantage here, and he's crafty as hell with his striking. Jared Cannonier also gets hit almost three times as often as him.β
Line since pick
CLV +0%
β entry$1.56
β
close$1.56
entry: LiveScore Bet Β· best in any region at publish
GN
Geoff Neal
v Carlos Prates
MONEYLINE
LOST
Geoff Neal
v Carlos Prates
MONEYLINE
LOST
βI do like Geoff Neal as a dog here. Geoff Neal money line plus 230. He lands more strikes per minute and in a fight that I expect to stay standing. That's pretty important. He's also capable of taking it to the ground. He did get a takedown in his last two wins and Carlos Carlos Prates was taken down four times in his last fight.β
Line since pick
CLV β6%
β entry$3.15
β
close$3.35
entry: LiveScore Bet Β· best in any region at publish
LM
Lerone Murphy
v Aaron Pico
MONEYLINE
WON
Lerone Murphy
v Aaron Pico
MONEYLINE
WON
βI'mma take the dog here. Lorome Murphy plus 140. I just think he's the better overall fighter. For what it's worth, he'll have a two-inch reach advantage here. He's been more active. He's had three fights since Aaron Pico's last fight. He's also undefeated. Are we forgetting that? And he's fought the better competition arguably, but you know, been in the EVENT_DETAILS for a while. I like Lerone Murphy to get it done here.β
Line since pick
CLV β16%
β entry$2.23
β
close$2.65
entry: LiveScore Bet Β· best in any region at publish
DP
Dricus du Plessis
v Khamzat Chimaev
MONEYLINE
LOST
Dricus du Plessis
v Khamzat Chimaev
MONEYLINE
LOST
βI'm riding with Drias Dup money line here plus 185. I mean, it's a nice number, but dude, he lands more strikes per minute. He's definitely more well-rounded. He's going to have a one-inch reach advantage for whatever that's worth. He's been more active. He fights twice a year. You know, Khamzat Chimaev only fights like once a year. I just feel like if Drius can survive the early onslaught to Khamzat Chimaev here, it's his to win.β
Line since pick
CLV β24%
β entry$2.63
β
close$3.46
entry: LiveScore Bet Β· best in any region at publish