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UFC 319: du Plessis vs. Chimaev
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DP KC Plessis vs ChimaevMain Card · Middleweight JC MP Cannonier vs PageMain Card · Middleweight GM MO Meerschaert vs OleksiejczukPreliminary Card · Middleweight EB DK Barboza vs KloseEarly Preliminary Card · Lightweight TE KA Elliott vs AsakuraMain Card · Flyweight CH AH Hooper vs HernandezPreliminary Card · Lightweight LM AP Murphy vs PicoMain Card · Featherweight GN CP Neal vs PratesMain Card · Welterweight KS DB Silva vs BarbosaEarly Preliminary Card · Women'S Flyweight BS EN Susurkaev vs NolanPreliminary Card · Middleweight AI JM Idiris vs MoralesEarly Preliminary Card · Flyweight JA LG Andrade vs GodínezPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight
BEST PRICE We back Elliott over Asakura · Flyweight Our fair value$3.36 NordicBet pays above fair $3.80
Where to back Elliott best price · region · EV vs fair $3.36
US FanDuel $3.65 +9%
UK Unibet (UK) $3.55 +6%
EU NordicBet $3.80 +13%
AU SportsBet $3.64 +8%
Consensus148 picks · conf 99/99
Elliott 54
94 Asakura
TMRMBM pick Elliott
How it endsmethod calls · Elliott · crowd line
KO/TKO 5 $15.45
Submission 9 $8.58
Decision 8 $9.66
None 1 $77.26
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Elliott 22-13-1 VS 21-6 Asakura
5'7" height 5'8"
126 lb weight 126 lb
66" reach 69"
39 age 32
Southpaw stance Orthodox
3.4 strikes landed / min 0.0
44% striking accuracy 0%
2.7 strikes absorbed / min 0.0
56% striking defence 0%
3.7 takedowns / 15 min 0.0
47% takedown accuracy 0%
59% takedown defence 0%
1.0 submissions / 15 min 0.0
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market30% vs 26%
Consensus54 of 148 analysts
Sharpest angleElliott by Submission — 9 of 23 method calls
Recommendation Back Elliott @ $3.80 · fair $3.36 +13% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
CR Capitán Rafucho picks Tim Elliott VALUE “I would love to see Tim Elliott with the submission because I would love to see that”
CR Capitán Rafucho picks Kai Asakura VALUE “I'm going to have to go with Inside the Distance by knockout”
KM Keep it a Buck Media picks Tim Elliott VALUE
CP Capper Comparison Picks picks Kai Asakura “I got Kai Asakura here. This is one of my more confident picks.”
TF The Fight Forecast picks Tim Elliott VALUE “I think Tim Elliott here first”
OP Overdogs Podcast with Mike Perry picks Tim Elliott “There's five. Tim Elliott, maybe. Yeah, Tim Elliott versus Kai Asakura. Pretty good fight.”
RX RX picks Tim Elliott “give me Tim Elliot by decision”
TH ThaGamingDojo picks Tim Elliott VALUE “I got Kai as well. I think they wanted to do something by throwing Kai straight into a title fight... but I think it's a win for Kai.”
LJ Lucrative James picks Tim Elliott “Tim Elliot versus Kai Asakora... I think if it stays on the feet for long periods of time, Kai can hurt him”
WP We Want Picks picks Tim Elliott “I'm going to pick Tim Elliott”
LS La Sueur+ picks Tim Elliott VALUE “I'm coming for you”
GM GC MMA picks Kai Asakura VALUE “Give me Kai. That guy is an auto fade. ... I do think that he probably will be able to knock Tim Elliott out here.”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Elliott22-13-1
L Erceg Decision · R3 May '26
W Asakura Submission · R2 Aug '25
W Mudaerji Submission · R1 Dec '23
L Mokaev Submission · R3 Oct '23
W Altamirano Decision · R3 Jun '23
Asakura21-6
W Smotherman KO/TKO · R1 May '26
L Elliott Submission · R2 Aug '25
L Pantoja Submission · R2 Dec '24