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UFC 319: du Plessis vs. Chimaev
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DP KC Plessis vs ChimaevMain Card · Middleweight JC MP Cannonier vs PageMain Card · Middleweight GM MO Meerschaert vs OleksiejczukPreliminary Card · Middleweight EB DK Barboza vs KloseEarly Preliminary Card · Lightweight TE KA Elliott vs AsakuraMain Card · Flyweight CH AH Hooper vs HernandezPreliminary Card · Lightweight LM AP Murphy vs PicoMain Card · Featherweight GN CP Neal vs PratesMain Card · Welterweight KS DB Silva vs BarbosaEarly Preliminary Card · Women'S Flyweight BS EN Susurkaev vs NolanPreliminary Card · Middleweight AI JM Idiris vs MoralesEarly Preliminary Card · Flyweight JA LG Andrade vs GodínezPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight
BEST PRICE We back Idiris over Morales · Flyweight Our fair value$1.21 Polymarket pays above fair $1.24
Where to back Idiris best price · region · EV vs fair $1.21
US DraftKings $1.21 +0%
UK Unibet (UK) $1.20 -1%
EU Pinnacle $1.22 +1%
AU Unibet $1.20 -1%
Consensus32 picks · conf 55/99
Idiris 28
4 Morales
MMRMTL pick Idiris
How it endsmethod calls · Idiris · crowd line
KO/TKO 5 $3.14
Submission 1 $15.71
Decision 7 $2.24
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Idiris 0-0 VS 14-2 Morales
5'6" height 5'6"
126 lb weight 126 lb
68" reach 68"
31 age 31
Orthodox stance Switch
— strikes landed / min 1.6
— striking accuracy 37%
— strikes absorbed / min 1.7
— striking defence 60%
— takedowns / 15 min 0.5
— takedown accuracy 50%
— takedown defence 23%
— submissions / 15 min 2.6
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market83% vs 81%
Consensus28 of 32 analysts
Sharpest angleIdiris by Decision — 7 of 13 method calls
Recommendation Back Idiris @ $1.24 · fair $1.21 +3% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
KM Keep it a Buck Media picks Alibi Idiris VALUE
CP Capper Comparison Picks picks Alibi Idiris “I'm picking Alibbe from what I saw because I believe his style can wear down Joseph Morales.”
MM MMAFightingonSBN picks Alibi Idiris “He looked great on the show. He looked like what he was, which is the most experienced guy.”
MM MMAFightingonSBN picks Joseph Morales VALUE “I'm leaning Joseph Joseph Morales.”
TT The Action Network: Sports Betting Picks & Tips picks Joseph Morales “One is the tough fight between Joseph Morales and Alibi Idiris.”
TT The Action Network: Sports Betting Picks & Tips picks Alibi Idiris VALUE “One is the tough fight between Joseph Morales and Alibi Idiris.”
RX RX picks Alibi Idiris VALUE “give me Ali Adrius by decision”
WP We Want Picks picks Alibi Idiris “Alibi Idiris is going to be the pick here”
GM GC MMA picks Alibi Idiris VALUE “I'm going Ali Berus here, boys. Undefeated. What's his name? Alibi Idiris. Yeah, I'm gonna go with him. I'm not taking this [ __ ] guy.”
KC Keg & Company | A Betting Collective picks Alibi Idiris VALUE “I will be on the Aliy side here.”
SS Spinnin Backfist MMA Show picks Alibi Idiris VALUE “I think the Alb whatever his name is, however you say his name, that kid, Alibi Idiris I think his name, that kid I don't know just the two fights I've seen of him in contender series he would not shock me and I think he's really young too if I remember correctly.”
LF Liam Picks Fights picks Alibi Idiris “give me AliE Idris. And I think that he might get the finish as well.”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Idiris0-0
W Osbourne Decision · R3 Feb '26
L Morales Submission · R2 Aug '25
Morales14-2
W Schnell Submission · R1 Nov '25
W Idiris Submission · R2 Aug '25
L Shelton Decision · R3 Nov '18
L Figueiredo KO/TKO · R2 Feb '18
W Sanchez Submission · R1 Aug '17