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UFC 319: du Plessis vs. Chimaev
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DP KC Plessis vs ChimaevMain Card · Middleweight JC MP Cannonier vs PageMain Card · Middleweight GM MO Meerschaert vs OleksiejczukPreliminary Card · Middleweight EB DK Barboza vs KloseEarly Preliminary Card · Lightweight TE KA Elliott vs AsakuraMain Card · Flyweight CH AH Hooper vs HernandezPreliminary Card · Lightweight LM AP Murphy vs PicoMain Card · Featherweight GN CP Neal vs PratesMain Card · Welterweight KS DB Silva vs BarbosaEarly Preliminary Card · Women'S Flyweight BS EN Susurkaev vs NolanPreliminary Card · Middleweight AI JM Idiris vs MoralesEarly Preliminary Card · Flyweight JA LG Andrade vs GodínezPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight
BEST PRICE We back Murphy over Pico · Featherweight Our fair value$2.19 Betsson pays above fair $2.65
Where to back Murphy best price · region · EV vs fair $2.19
US FanDuel $2.32 +6%
UK Grosvenor $2.28 +4%
EU Betsson $2.65 +21%
AU Betr (AU) $2.40 +10%
Consensus187 picks · conf 99/99
Murphy 112
75 Pico
HTBMRM pick Murphy
How it endsmethod calls · Murphy · crowd line
KO/TKO 4 $37.15
Decision 64 $2.32
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Murphy 17-0-1 VS 13-5 Pico
5'9" height 5'8"
146 lb weight 145 lb
73" reach 70"
34 age 29
Orthodox stance Orthodox
4.8 strikes landed / min —
54% striking accuracy —
2.7 strikes absorbed / min —
60% striking defence —
1.8 takedowns / 15 min —
54% takedown accuracy —
48% takedown defence —
0.6 submissions / 15 min —
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market46% vs 38%
Consensus112 of 187 analysts
Sharpest angleMurphy by Decision — 64 of 68 method calls
Recommendation Back Murphy @ $2.65 · fair $2.19 +21% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
CR Capitán Rafucho picks Lerone Murphy VALUE “give me Lerone Murphy as unanimous decision at round number three”
RU RotoWire MMA / UFC picks Lerone Murphy “I like Lerone Murphy more as a Lerone Murphy pieces him up”
TD The Rambling Dad picks Lerone Murphy $2.42
CP Capper Comparison Picks picks Lerone Murphy “He's going to win by decision. And that's my final pick.”
TF The Fight Forecast picks Aaron Pico VALUE “Go with the Rowan Murphy by money line”
MD mdminds picks Lerone Murphy “I'm just going to take Lerone Murphy against stiff competition, I mean Lerone Murphy I'm just gonna go uh Lerone Murphy moneyline three or by decision plus 170.”
TT The Action Network: Sports Betting Picks & Tips picks Aaron Pico VALUE “Aaron Pico for me, one of the more high-level wrestlers that have come into the UFC in a little bit just in terms of his skill set.” $1.62
TT The Action Network: Sports Betting Picks & Tips picks Lerone Murphy VALUE “You're going with Lerone Murphy pre-fight, though the line has moved in a little bit.” $2.35
WT WagerTalk TV: Sports Picks and Betting Tips picks Lerone Murphy VALUE “in the EVENT_DETAILS he played much more of a typical bet for him. Lerone Murphy plus 165” $2.65
RX RX picks Lerone Murphy VALUE “give me Rome Murphy by decision”
HP Hayjive Picks picks Lerone Murphy VALUE “Lastly, Lerone Murphy lower than 64 and a half significant strikes.”
EB ESPN BET picks Lerone Murphy VALUE “Give me Lerone Murphy plus 145.” $2.45
Recent form last five, most recent first
Murphy17-0-1
L Evloev Decision · R5 Mar '26
W Pico KO/TKO · R1 Aug '25
W Emmett Decision · R5 Apr '25
W Ige Decision · R3 Oct '24
W Barboza Decision · R5 May '24
Pico13-5
W Pitbull Decision · R3 Apr '26
L Murphy KO/TKO · R1 Aug '25