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UFC 319: du Plessis vs. Chimaev
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DP KC Plessis vs ChimaevMain Card · Middleweight JC MP Cannonier vs PageMain Card · Middleweight GM MO Meerschaert vs OleksiejczukPreliminary Card · Middleweight EB DK Barboza vs KloseEarly Preliminary Card · Lightweight TE KA Elliott vs AsakuraMain Card · Flyweight CH AH Hooper vs HernandezPreliminary Card · Lightweight LM AP Murphy vs PicoMain Card · Featherweight GN CP Neal vs PratesMain Card · Welterweight KS DB Silva vs BarbosaEarly Preliminary Card · Women'S Flyweight BS EN Susurkaev vs NolanPreliminary Card · Middleweight AI JM Idiris vs MoralesEarly Preliminary Card · Flyweight JA LG Andrade vs GodínezPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight
BEST PRICE We back Neal over Prates · Welterweight Our fair value$3.08 NordicBet pays above fair $3.35
Where to back Neal best price · region · EV vs fair $3.08
US Caesars $2.70 -12%
UK Virgin Bet $3.15 +2%
EU NordicBet $3.35 +9%
AU TAB $2.70 -12%
Consensus145 picks · conf 99/99
Neal 49
96 Prates
HSDTBM pick Neal
How it endsmethod calls · Neal · crowd line
KO/TKO 14 $5.50
Decision 10 $7.70
None 1 $76.96
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Neal 16-7 VS 23-7 Prates
5'11" height 6'1"
171 lb weight 170 lb
75" reach 78"
35 age 32
Southpaw stance Switch
5.0 strikes landed / min 4.4
51% striking accuracy 57%
5.4 strikes absorbed / min 4.6
57% striking defence 48%
0.6 takedowns / 15 min 0.4
50% takedown accuracy 100%
87% takedown defence 91%
0.1 submissions / 15 min 0.0
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market32% vs 30%
Consensus49 of 145 analysts
Sharpest angleNeal by KO/TKO — 14 of 25 method calls
Recommendation Back Neal @ $3.35 · fair $3.08 +9% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
CR Capitán Rafucho picks Carlos Prates VALUE “I will say this give me Carlos Prates practice part of the fighting nerds knockout round number two”
KM Keep it a Buck Media picks Geoff Neal VALUE
CP Capper Comparison Picks picks Carlos Prates “So, I'm going with Carlos Prates here reluctantly.”
TF The Fight Forecast picks Carlos Prates VALUE “My official pick will be I think Protest by KO”
MD mdminds picks Geoff Neal “I Geoff Neal, 10 knockouts, two lot in that favor of Geoff Neal as well.”
MM MMAFightingonSBN picks Geoff Neal VALUE “I'm a believer in Carl Pches as a welterweight contender.”
TT The Action Network: Sports Betting Picks & Tips picks Carlos Prates VALUE “I like patches here and I think he's going to win. I think if he wins it's probably with a knockout.”
RX RX picks Geoff Neal VALUE “give me Edson Barbosa by decision”
HP Hayjive Picks picks Geoff Neal VALUE “Number four, Geoff Neal, higher than 39 and a half.”
TH ThaGamingDojo picks Geoff Neal VALUE “I'mma go with Neil on this one.”
LJ Lucrative James picks Geoff Neal “I'm picking Protest by round three KO”
WP We Want Picks picks Carlos Prates “I am going to pick Carlos Prates”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Neal16-7
L Medić KO/TKO · R1 Feb '26
L Prates KO/TKO · R1 Aug '25
W Anjos KO/TKO · R1 Oct '24
L Garry Decision · R3 Feb '24
L Rakhmonov Submission · R3 Mar '23
Prates23-7
W Maddalena KO/TKO · R3 May '26
W Edwards KO/TKO · R2 Nov '25
W Neal KO/TKO · R1 Aug '25
L Garry Decision · R5 Apr '25
W Magny KO/TKO · R1 Nov '24