UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos Β· breakdown
Picks, timestamped
entry price locked at moment of pick Β· line tracked since Β· best price in any region Β· close = day before the event
ES
Elijah Smith
v You Su-young
MONEYLINE
WON
Elijah Smith
v You Su-young
MONEYLINE
WON
βI'm gonna have more of You Su-young and that will be my pick for this fightβ
Line since pick
CLV +1%
β entry$1.51
β
close$1.50
entry: Unibet (SE) Β· best in any region at publish
BM
Beatriz Mesquita
v Montserrat Rendon
MONEYLINE
WON
βI think she gets takedowns anyway. Uh 9500's a lot, but 9K is rough this week. We're going to talk about some a couple other 9K fighters, and there are some holes here. Um BMSeta, I think, is also one of the safest fights on the card for Cash Game. I'm not going to play any uh Monserat Renone Busquetto. One of my favorite options on the card like her in all formats. That's the play.β
Line since pick
CLV +3%
β entry$1.20
β
close$1.17
entry: Unibet (SE) Β· best in any region at publish
JD
Jose Miguel Delgado
v Andre Fili
MONEYLINE
WON
Jose Miguel Delgado
v Andre Fili
MONEYLINE
WON
βGive me Jose Miguel Delgado pretty much in all format. It's a big number minus 415. You get in the minus 300 range if you wanted to build a parlay. Maybe not my style to build those type of parlays. I really like Jose Miguel Delgado. If you can get a stab on Jose Miguel Delgado uh to win by finish, that's more interesting to me. really like the prospect in this spot.β
Line since pick
CLV +2%
β entry$1.33
β
close$1.30
entry: LeoVegas (SE) Β· best in any region at publish
GR
Gillian Robertson
v Amanda Lemos
MONEYLINE
WON
Gillian Robertson
v Amanda Lemos
MONEYLINE
WON
βLook, I've ridden the Jillian Robertson train for a long time. I have a mark on this one. She fights aggressive. Um, can grapple and when she gets on the ground, she's she's not going to do, sorry, I'm going to throw shade here. She's not going to do what Charles Olivera did uh against Max Holloway. She looks for nasty, vicious ground and pound. When she gets on top, she looks to finish.β
Line since pick
CLV +0%
β entry$1.60
β
close$1.60
entry: Betsson Β· best in any region at publish
MS
Manoel Sousa
v Bolaji Oki
MONEYLINE
WON
β
Manoel Sousa
v Bolaji Oki
MONEYLINE
WON
β
βSOA is at 9,400. Oki is at 6800. Um, I'm a little concerned here... I don't think I'm going to be able to pick Balagio. In fact, for this podcast, I'm not going to. But in terms of the cheap 6K plays and minus 160 to end inside the distance guy who's got some grappling upside potential in his fight, Bellagio is probably my favorite... I'll probably end up underweight here. I'll still pick them straight up.β
Line since pick
CLV +0%
β entry$1.39
β
close$1.39
entry: Pinnacle Β· best in any region at publish
BO
Bolaji Oki
v Manoel Sousa
MONEYLINE
LOST
β
Bolaji Oki
v Manoel Sousa
MONEYLINE
LOST
β
βI'm a little concerned here. This is one of the ones I alluded to earlier that I have a little bit of concern. Manos is a really big favorite for a guy who's pretty much got controlled on the ground for over half of his Dana White Contender Series fight... I like Bellagio. Um for DraftKings and I I would look at the takedown prop in this fight... Moving on, Chris Curtis, the action man, taking on McTi... I'm still going to take MCB or Leai.β
Line since pick
CLV β5%
β entry$3.30
β
close$3.46
entry: BetOnline.ag Β· best in any region at publish
Line since pick
CLV β1%
β entry$1.70
β
now$1.71
entry: BetOnline.ag Β· best in any region at publish
CJ
Charles Johnson
v Bruno Gustavo da Silva
MONEYLINE
WON
β
Charles Johnson
v Bruno Gustavo da Silva
MONEYLINE
WON
β
βI'm going to side with Bruno Gustavo da Silva in this one. I'm going to take the dog. I think plus 140 is too wide. I think we'd get an even better number because he got the win over Lonnie Kavanagh if um he hadn't lost to Alex Perez last time out. That being said, I think Bruno still is a little bit undervalued here. Like him in pretty much all formats. Um I think it's an interesting cash game paydown as well. probably the first there's one other payown I like a little a little more uh and we'll get to that uh at the end of the show but Bruno Silva's got to be in the mix here 7500 to go to decision super live dog should grapple checks all the boxes I like Bruno Gustavo da Silva and Charles Johnson look that's a tough tough range this week for me to want to play pretty much any Charles Johnson like he's he is just really hard to get to when I can pay a hundred less for Gillian Robertson or 300 less for Piera Rodriguez and then we'll talk about the guys just above him like sorry Charles Johnson if he breaks a sight I'm probably going to be in trouble I'll be underweight give me Bruno Gustavo da Silva for the upset main card timeβ
Line since pick
CLV +0%
β entry$1.62
β
close$1.62
entry: BetOnline.ag Β· best in any region at publish
AL
Amanda Lemos
v Gillian Robertson
MONEYLINE
LOST
β
Amanda Lemos
v Gillian Robertson
MONEYLINE
LOST
β
βAlready broke this one down once. It was rescheduled. Like it on this card because I got Gillian Robertson on this card and I got Gillian Robertson by a lot... I'm going to take Gillian Robertson, though.β
Line since pick
CLV +0%
β entry$2.80
β
close$2.80
entry: BetMGM Β· best in any region at publish
BT
Brad Tavares
v Eryk Anders
MONEYLINE
LOST
β
Brad Tavares
v Eryk Anders
MONEYLINE
LOST
β
βwholly aging middleweights. Uh, the wrong fight. Eryk Anders is the dog at plus 103. Brad Tiveres is the slight favorite at minus 123... I think the wheels could fall off for either one at any point. I'm just more confident on the Tvaris side. Decent look here at a nearly pick him fight. Give me Brad Dvaris, but not one I like for DraftKings pretty much at all.β
Line since pick
CLV β3%
β entry$2.01
β
close$2.07
entry: Pinnacle Β· best in any region at publish
CC
Chris Curtis
v Myktybek Orolbai
MONEYLINE
LOST
β
Chris Curtis
v Myktybek Orolbai
MONEYLINE
LOST
β
βLook, I have [__] on Chris Curtis plenty and I'm not going to pick him to win this fight, but he's got really good takedown defense and that really hurts the stock of MCB or in terms of DFS... I'm still going to take MCB or Leai.β
Line since pick
CLV β9%
β entry$3.87
β
close$4.25
entry: Pinnacle Β· best in any region at publish
MR
Montserrat Rendon
v Beatriz Mesquita
MONEYLINE
LOST
β
Montserrat Rendon
v Beatriz Mesquita
MONEYLINE
LOST
β
βBeatriz Mesquita taking on Montserrat Rendon the monster. Beatriz Mesquita is a huge favorite at minus 800. Monserat Randon comes in at plus 575, plus 450 in some books. She's a big underdog... I think she gets takedowns anyway. Uh 9500's a lot, but 9K is rough this week. We're going to talk about some a couple other 9K fighters, and there are some holes here. Um BMSeta, I think, is also one of the safest fights on the card for Cash Game. I'm not going to play any uh Monserat Renone Busquetto. One of my favorite options on the card like her in all formats. That's the play.β
Line since pick
CLV +0%
β entry$6.75
β
close$6.75
entry: BetOnline.ag Β· best in any region at publish
BS
Bruno Gustavo da Silva
v Charles Johnson
MONEYLINE
LOST
β
Bruno Gustavo da Silva
v Charles Johnson
MONEYLINE
LOST
β
βI'm going to side with Bruno Gustavo da Silva in this one. I'm going to take the dog. I think plus 140 is too wide. I think we'd get an even better number because he got the win over Lonnie Kavanagh if um he hadn't lost to Alex Perez last time out. That being said, I think Bruno still is a little bit undervalued here. Like him in pretty much all formats. Um I think it's an interesting cash game paydown as well. probably the first there's one other payown I like a little a little more uh and we'll get to that uh at the end of the show but Bruno Silva's got to be in the mix here 7500 to go to decision super live dog should grapple checks all the boxes I like Bruno Gustavo da Silva and Charles Johnson look that's a tough tough range this week for me to want to play pretty much any Charles Johnson like he's he is just really hard to get to when I can pay a hundred less for Gillian Robertson or 300 less for Piera Rodriguez and then we'll talk about the guys just above him like sorry Charles Johnson if he breaks a sight I'm probably going to be in trouble I'll be underweight give me Bruno Gustavo da Silva for the upset main card timeβ
Line since pick
CLV +4%
β entry$2.70
β
close$2.60
entry: LeoVegas (SE) Β· best in any region at publish
MR
Marwan Rahiki
v Harry Hardwick
MONEYLINE
WON
β
Marwan Rahiki
v Harry Hardwick
MONEYLINE
WON
β
βMarwan Rahiki is minus 275. Harry Hardwick is plus 235... I'm just worried about this fight. Mostly I want to probably get a little bit overweight to both guys on DraftKings. It's a really high varian fight. There's a ton of live dogs. Um, I just I don't think super highly of either of these guys.β
Line since pick
CLV β1%
β entry$1.39
β
close$1.41
entry: 1xBet Β· best in any region at publish
AF
Andre Fili
v Jose Miguel Delgado
MONEYLINE
LOST
β
Andre Fili
v Jose Miguel Delgado
MONEYLINE
LOST
β
βAndre Feelely been around forever in this division. He's a big dog at plus 345. Delgato comes in as the big favorite minus415... I think he can get a finish here. I'm really uncomfortable using Andre Phy uh a as a as a punt. Um, but I'm probably going to because like I said, like all the in this in this 7K and under range, we have Harry Hardwick... I'll play a little Rendone, EVENT_DETAILS, and and Fe and then Fely. He's probably third in that mix of my options.β
Line since pick
CLV +0%
β entry$4.55
β
close$4.55
entry: BetOnline.ag Β· best in any region at publish
LL
Luan Lacerda
v Hecher Sosa
MONEYLINE
LOST
β
Luan Lacerda
v Hecher Sosa
MONEYLINE
LOST
β
βHe Sosa comes in at minus 240. Luan Lacerda at plus 205... I think with the fourth fight on the card, this is potential for a sneaky slate breaking spot. I really like Hitacha. I think get takedowns, get a finish. You could see rinse and repeat. Throws a lot of strikes in the ground. And I just I I like the prospect that is Hijra Sosa not really a big fan of Luan Lera.β
Line since pick
CLV +0%
β entry$3.15
β
close$3.15
entry: PlayUp Β· best in any region at publish
