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DFS Army - Daily Fantasy Sports
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos Β· breakdown

UFC EMMETT vs. VALLEJOS PICKS & DRAFTKINGS STRATEGY

DS DFS Army - Daily Fantasy Sports 52% hit
3 months ago 7W–8L Β· -5.0u 15/16 graded
Picks, timestamped entry price locked at moment of pick Β· line tracked since Β· best price in any region Β· close = day before the event
ES Elijah Smith v You Su-young MONEYLINE WON
β€œI'm gonna have more of You Su-young and that will be my pick for this fight”
Line since pick CLV +1%
β—† entry$1.51 β†’ close$1.50
entry: Unibet (SE) Β· best in any region at publish
BM Beatriz Mesquita v Montserrat Rendon MONEYLINE WON
β€œI think she gets takedowns anyway. Uh 9500's a lot, but 9K is rough this week. We're going to talk about some a couple other 9K fighters, and there are some holes here. Um BMSeta, I think, is also one of the safest fights on the card for Cash Game. I'm not going to play any uh Monserat Renone Busquetto. One of my favorite options on the card like her in all formats. That's the play.”
Line since pick CLV +3%
β—† entry$1.20 β†’ close$1.17
entry: Unibet (SE) Β· best in any region at publish
JD Jose Miguel Delgado v Andre Fili MONEYLINE WON
β€œGive me Jose Miguel Delgado pretty much in all format. It's a big number minus 415. You get in the minus 300 range if you wanted to build a parlay. Maybe not my style to build those type of parlays. I really like Jose Miguel Delgado. If you can get a stab on Jose Miguel Delgado uh to win by finish, that's more interesting to me. really like the prospect in this spot.”
Line since pick CLV +2%
β—† entry$1.33 β†’ close$1.30
entry: LeoVegas (SE) Β· best in any region at publish
GR Gillian Robertson v Amanda Lemos MONEYLINE WON
β€œLook, I've ridden the Jillian Robertson train for a long time. I have a mark on this one. She fights aggressive. Um, can grapple and when she gets on the ground, she's she's not going to do, sorry, I'm going to throw shade here. She's not going to do what Charles Olivera did uh against Max Holloway. She looks for nasty, vicious ground and pound. When she gets on top, she looks to finish.”
Line since pick CLV +0%
β—† entry$1.60 β†’ close$1.60
entry: Betsson Β· best in any region at publish
MS Manoel Sousa v Bolaji Oki MONEYLINE WON β€”
β€œSOA is at 9,400. Oki is at 6800. Um, I'm a little concerned here... I don't think I'm going to be able to pick Balagio. In fact, for this podcast, I'm not going to. But in terms of the cheap 6K plays and minus 160 to end inside the distance guy who's got some grappling upside potential in his fight, Bellagio is probably my favorite... I'll probably end up underweight here. I'll still pick them straight up.”
Line since pick CLV +0%
β—† entry$1.39 β†’ close$1.39
entry: Pinnacle Β· best in any region at publish
BO Bolaji Oki v Manoel Sousa MONEYLINE LOST β€”
β€œI'm a little concerned here. This is one of the ones I alluded to earlier that I have a little bit of concern. Manos is a really big favorite for a guy who's pretty much got controlled on the ground for over half of his Dana White Contender Series fight... I like Bellagio. Um for DraftKings and I I would look at the takedown prop in this fight... Moving on, Chris Curtis, the action man, taking on McTi... I'm still going to take MCB or Leai.”
Line since pick CLV βˆ’5%
β—† entry$3.30 β†’ close$3.46
entry: BetOnline.ag Β· best in any region at publish
PR Piera Rodriguez v Sam Hughes MONEYLINE β€”
β€œI like Piera Rodriguez”
Line since pick CLV βˆ’1%
β—† entry$1.70 β†’ now$1.71
entry: BetOnline.ag Β· best in any region at publish
CJ Charles Johnson v Bruno Gustavo da Silva MONEYLINE WON β€”
β€œI'm going to side with Bruno Gustavo da Silva in this one. I'm going to take the dog. I think plus 140 is too wide. I think we'd get an even better number because he got the win over Lonnie Kavanagh if um he hadn't lost to Alex Perez last time out. That being said, I think Bruno still is a little bit undervalued here. Like him in pretty much all formats. Um I think it's an interesting cash game paydown as well. probably the first there's one other payown I like a little a little more uh and we'll get to that uh at the end of the show but Bruno Silva's got to be in the mix here 7500 to go to decision super live dog should grapple checks all the boxes I like Bruno Gustavo da Silva and Charles Johnson look that's a tough tough range this week for me to want to play pretty much any Charles Johnson like he's he is just really hard to get to when I can pay a hundred less for Gillian Robertson or 300 less for Piera Rodriguez and then we'll talk about the guys just above him like sorry Charles Johnson if he breaks a sight I'm probably going to be in trouble I'll be underweight give me Bruno Gustavo da Silva for the upset main card time”
Line since pick CLV +0%
β—† entry$1.62 β†’ close$1.62
entry: BetOnline.ag Β· best in any region at publish
AL Amanda Lemos v Gillian Robertson MONEYLINE LOST β€”
β€œAlready broke this one down once. It was rescheduled. Like it on this card because I got Gillian Robertson on this card and I got Gillian Robertson by a lot... I'm going to take Gillian Robertson, though.”
Line since pick CLV +0%
β—† entry$2.80 β†’ close$2.80
entry: BetMGM Β· best in any region at publish
BT Brad Tavares v Eryk Anders MONEYLINE LOST β€”
β€œwholly aging middleweights. Uh, the wrong fight. Eryk Anders is the dog at plus 103. Brad Tiveres is the slight favorite at minus 123... I think the wheels could fall off for either one at any point. I'm just more confident on the Tvaris side. Decent look here at a nearly pick him fight. Give me Brad Dvaris, but not one I like for DraftKings pretty much at all.”
Line since pick CLV βˆ’3%
β—† entry$2.01 β†’ close$2.07
entry: Pinnacle Β· best in any region at publish
CC Chris Curtis v Myktybek Orolbai MONEYLINE LOST β€”
β€œLook, I have [__] on Chris Curtis plenty and I'm not going to pick him to win this fight, but he's got really good takedown defense and that really hurts the stock of MCB or in terms of DFS... I'm still going to take MCB or Leai.”
Line since pick CLV βˆ’9%
β—† entry$3.87 β†’ close$4.25
entry: Pinnacle Β· best in any region at publish
MR Montserrat Rendon v Beatriz Mesquita MONEYLINE LOST β€”
β€œBeatriz Mesquita taking on Montserrat Rendon the monster. Beatriz Mesquita is a huge favorite at minus 800. Monserat Randon comes in at plus 575, plus 450 in some books. She's a big underdog... I think she gets takedowns anyway. Uh 9500's a lot, but 9K is rough this week. We're going to talk about some a couple other 9K fighters, and there are some holes here. Um BMSeta, I think, is also one of the safest fights on the card for Cash Game. I'm not going to play any uh Monserat Renone Busquetto. One of my favorite options on the card like her in all formats. That's the play.”
Line since pick CLV +0%
β—† entry$6.75 β†’ close$6.75
entry: BetOnline.ag Β· best in any region at publish
BS Bruno Gustavo da Silva v Charles Johnson MONEYLINE LOST β€”
β€œI'm going to side with Bruno Gustavo da Silva in this one. I'm going to take the dog. I think plus 140 is too wide. I think we'd get an even better number because he got the win over Lonnie Kavanagh if um he hadn't lost to Alex Perez last time out. That being said, I think Bruno still is a little bit undervalued here. Like him in pretty much all formats. Um I think it's an interesting cash game paydown as well. probably the first there's one other payown I like a little a little more uh and we'll get to that uh at the end of the show but Bruno Silva's got to be in the mix here 7500 to go to decision super live dog should grapple checks all the boxes I like Bruno Gustavo da Silva and Charles Johnson look that's a tough tough range this week for me to want to play pretty much any Charles Johnson like he's he is just really hard to get to when I can pay a hundred less for Gillian Robertson or 300 less for Piera Rodriguez and then we'll talk about the guys just above him like sorry Charles Johnson if he breaks a sight I'm probably going to be in trouble I'll be underweight give me Bruno Gustavo da Silva for the upset main card time”
Line since pick CLV +4%
β—† entry$2.70 β†’ close$2.60
entry: LeoVegas (SE) Β· best in any region at publish
MR Marwan Rahiki v Harry Hardwick MONEYLINE WON β€”
β€œMarwan Rahiki is minus 275. Harry Hardwick is plus 235... I'm just worried about this fight. Mostly I want to probably get a little bit overweight to both guys on DraftKings. It's a really high varian fight. There's a ton of live dogs. Um, I just I don't think super highly of either of these guys.”
Line since pick CLV βˆ’1%
β—† entry$1.39 β†’ close$1.41
entry: 1xBet Β· best in any region at publish
AF Andre Fili v Jose Miguel Delgado MONEYLINE LOST β€”
β€œAndre Feelely been around forever in this division. He's a big dog at plus 345. Delgato comes in as the big favorite minus415... I think he can get a finish here. I'm really uncomfortable using Andre Phy uh a as a as a punt. Um, but I'm probably going to because like I said, like all the in this in this 7K and under range, we have Harry Hardwick... I'll play a little Rendone, EVENT_DETAILS, and and Fe and then Fely. He's probably third in that mix of my options.”
Line since pick CLV +0%
β—† entry$4.55 β†’ close$4.55
entry: BetOnline.ag Β· best in any region at publish
LL Luan Lacerda v Hecher Sosa MONEYLINE LOST β€”
β€œHe Sosa comes in at minus 240. Luan Lacerda at plus 205... I think with the fourth fight on the card, this is potential for a sneaky slate breaking spot. I really like Hitacha. I think get takedowns, get a finish. You could see rinse and repeat. Throws a lot of strikes in the ground. And I just I I like the prospect that is Hijra Sosa not really a big fan of Luan Lera.”
Line since pick CLV +0%
β—† entry$3.15 β†’ close$3.15
entry: PlayUp Β· best in any region at publish