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UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos
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JE KV Emmett vs VallejosMain Card · Featherweight AL GR Lemos vs RobertsonMain Card · Women'S Strawweight IC OS Cuțelaba vs SyMain Card · Light Heavyweight AF JD Fili vs DelgadoMain Card · Featherweight MR HH Rahiki vs HardwickMain Card · Featherweight VP SA Petrino vs AsplundPreliminary Card · Heavyweight CJ BS Johnson vs SilvaMain Card · Flyweight BO MS Oki vs SousaPreliminary Card · Lightweight LL HS Lacerda vs SosaPreliminary Card · Bantamweight BM MR Mesquita vs RendonPreliminary Card · Women'S Bantamweight ES YS Smith vs Su-youngPreliminary Card · Bantamweight BT EA Tavares vs AndersPreliminary Card · Middleweight CC MO Curtis vs OrolbaiPreliminary Card · Welterweight PR SH Rodríguez vs HughesPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight
BEST PRICE We back Sousa over Oki · Lightweight Our fair value$1.29 Coolbet pays above fair $1.38
Where to back Sousa best price · region · EV vs fair $1.29
US BetRivers $1.36 +6%
UK William Hill (UK) $1.36 +6%
EU Coolbet $1.38 +7%
AU Unibet $1.36 +6%
PM Polymarket crowd exchange $1.37
Consensus19 picks · conf 42/99
Oki 2
17 Sousa
SC pick Oki
How it endsmethod calls · Sousa · crowd line
KO/TKO 3 $2.15
Decision 2 $3.22
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Oki 10-4 VS 13-1 Sousa
5'10" height 5'9"
155 lb weight 155 lb
73" reach 70"
30 age 29
Orthodox stance Orthodox
4.9 strikes landed / min —
58% striking accuracy —
3.2 strikes absorbed / min —
64% striking defence —
0.8 takedowns / 15 min —
59% takedown accuracy —
84% takedown defence —
1.3 submissions / 15 min —
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market78% vs 72%
Consensus17 of 19 analysts
Sharpest angleSousa by KO/TKO — 3 of 5 method calls
Recommendation Back Sousa @ $1.38 · fair $1.29 +7% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
BM Bruce Oldham MMA picks Manoel Sousa “I'm going to go with Manoel Sousa.”
MT MMAbouts Talks picks Manoel Sousa VALUE “I have Sosa minus 350 odds. Second round KODTKO 7.9 out of 10 confidence.” $1.29
IM IJB MMA picks Manoel Sousa “I got Manoel Sousa to beat Bolaji Oki by decision.”
DO DonDaDa02 picks Manoel Sousa VALUE “Manoel Sousa is going to win this match up. I think he gets the job done here. I think he wins a decision.”
BM Bozing MMA picks Manoel Sousa “I think Manoel Sousa is going to have an advantage on the feet here and on the ground.”
MD MMA DUMMY picks Manoel Sousa VALUE “I'm taking Manuel Souza. I think he's going to viciously KO NOT_IN_ROSTER_2... I'm taking Souza by KO, probably round one.”
MC McManusMMA picks Manoel Sousa “I'm going with uh Manoel Sousa by Kot TKO.”
TO The MMA Outlaw picks Manoel Sousa VALUE “I believe Manoel Sousa will get this fight done by KO.”
TH TheWeasle picks Manoel Sousa VALUE “Manoel Sousa. This is going to be such an interesting fight.”
CO CouchWarrior1 picks Manoel Sousa “I believe that the grappling um of Manoel Sousa uh will be a bit too much for Old Mate to handle. So, I'm going to go Manoel Sousa off this one.”
SQ SqimpMMA picks Bolaji Oki VALUE “I think Okei is going to win this... Maybe even gets a late fight TKO or a submission. I could see a submission.”
MA Mustafa Abutair picks Manoel Sousa VALUE “Manoel Sousa is injured.”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Oki10-4
L Sousa KO/TKO · R3 Mar '26
L Jones KO/TKO · R2 Sep '25
W Aswell Decision · R3 May '25
L Duncan Submission · R1 Sep '24
W Cuamba Decision · R3 Feb '24
Sousa13-1
W Oki KO/TKO · R3 Mar '26