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UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos
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JE KV Emmett vs VallejosMain Card · Featherweight AL GR Lemos vs RobertsonMain Card · Women'S Strawweight IC OS Cuțelaba vs SyMain Card · Light Heavyweight AF JD Fili vs DelgadoMain Card · Featherweight MR HH Rahiki vs HardwickMain Card · Featherweight VP SA Petrino vs AsplundPreliminary Card · Heavyweight CJ BS Johnson vs SilvaMain Card · Flyweight BO MS Oki vs SousaPreliminary Card · Lightweight LL HS Lacerda vs SosaPreliminary Card · Bantamweight BM MR Mesquita vs RendonPreliminary Card · Women'S Bantamweight ES YS Smith vs Su-youngPreliminary Card · Bantamweight BT EA Tavares vs AndersPreliminary Card · Middleweight CC MO Curtis vs OrolbaiPreliminary Card · Welterweight PR SH Rodríguez vs HughesPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight
BEST PRICE We back Rahiki over Hardwick · Featherweight Our fair value$1.39 BetAnything pays above fair $1.43
Where to back Rahiki best price · region · EV vs fair $1.39
US BetAnything $1.43 +2%
UK Unibet (UK) $1.38 -1%
EU Pinnacle $1.39 -0%
AU Ladbrokes AU $1.38 -1%
PM Polymarket crowd exchange $1.43
Consensus28 picks · conf 52/99
Rahiki 21
7 Hardwick
MBIMCC pick Rahiki
How it endsmethod calls · Rahiki · crowd line
KO/TKO 4 $2.09
Decision 2 $4.18
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Rahiki 8-0 VS 13-4-1 Hardwick
5'10" height 5'10"
146 lb weight 156 lb
72" reach 71"
24 age 31
Orthodox stance Switch
— strikes landed / min 3.8
— striking accuracy 38%
— strikes absorbed / min 2.3
— striking defence 64%
— takedowns / 15 min 1.6
— takedown accuracy 74%
— takedown defence 60%
— submissions / 15 min 0.7
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market72% vs 70%
Consensus21 of 28 analysts
Sharpest angleRahiki by KO/TKO — 4 of 6 method calls
Recommendation Back Rahiki @ $1.43 · fair $1.39 +2% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
MT MMAbouts Talks picks Marwan Rahiki VALUE “I feel like this is a fighter night contender to be honest... I have him minus 235 by decision six out of 10 confidence.”
IM Industry Plant MMA picks Marwan Rahiki VALUE “Marwan Rahiki, I'm more confident in the Marwan Rahiki, but I put both And then Marwan Rahiki is gonna get a finish.”
IM IJB MMA picks Harry Hardwick “I think he's going to craft himself up a close 29 28 decision.”
DO DonDaDa02 picks Harry Hardwick VALUE “I want Harry Hardwick to win this matchup”
DO DonDaDa02 picks Marwan Rahiki VALUE “I want Marwan Rahiki to win this matchup by maybe late TKO or decision”
AN AntUFC picks Harry Hardwick “I have Harry Hardwick in this fight by finish in round two”
AN AntUFC picks Marwan Rahiki “I have Marwan Rahiki in this fight by finish in round two”
KM Keep it a Buck Media picks Harry Hardwick VALUE “I think Harry Hardwick could weather the storm here.”
PT Premier TV picks Marwan Rahiki VALUE “I really do think it's going to be by points.”
PT Premier TV picks Harry Hardwick “Yeah, I got Harry Hardwick.”
BM Bozing MMA picks Marwan Rahiki “I think he's going to knock him out like the second round.”
PR Premium-Picks picks Marwan Rahiki VALUE “Marwan Rahiki 7-0 taking on Harry the minus 270.”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Rahiki8-0
W Schmid KO/TKO · R1 May '26
W Hardwick KO/TKO · R2 Mar '26
Hardwick13-4-1
L Rahiki KO/TKO · R2 Mar '26
L Fernandes KO/TKO · R1 Sep '25