UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho · breakdown
Episode 17 - UFC Paris Picks & Bets - Nassourdine Imavov vs Caio Borralho
LP
Lord Ninja Choke MMA Picks & Bets Podcast52% hit
10 months ago
6W–6L · +0.8u
12/14 graded
Picks, timestamped
entry price locked at moment of pick · line tracked since · best price in any region · close = day before the event
Line since pick
CLV +6%
◆ entry$3.80
→
now$3.57
entry: ESPN BET · best in any region at publish
CB
Caio Borralho
v Nassourdine Imavov
MONEYLINE
LOST
Caio Borralho
v Nassourdine Imavov
MONEYLINE
LOST
“I think Caio Borralho has at least a 45% chance of winning this fight.”
Line since pick
CLV −2%
◆ entry$1.83
→
close$1.87
entry: 1xBet · best in any region at publish
RF
Rinat Fakhretdinov
v Andreas Gustafsson
MONEYLINE
WON
Rinat Fakhretdinov
v Andreas Gustafsson
MONEYLINE
WON
“he's going to be very very dangerous early.”
Line since pick
CLV +0%
◆ entry$2.05
→
close$2.05
entry: BetOnline.ag · best in any region at publish
Line since pick
CLV −7%
◆ entry$1.68
→
close$1.80
entry: DraftKings · best in any region at publish
SP
Sam Patterson
v Trey Waters
MONEYLINE
WON
Sam Patterson
v Trey Waters
MONEYLINE
WON
“Patterson actually has the reach advantage over Trey Waters.”
Line since pick
CLV +5%
◆ entry$1.67
→
close$1.59
entry: Ladbrokes AU · best in any region at publish
Line since pick
CLV −1%
◆ entry$2.59
→
close$2.61
entry: Coolbet · best in any region at publish
Line since pick
CLV +3%
◆ entry$1.36
→
close$1.32
entry: Betway · best in any region at publish
AG
Andreas Gustafsson
v Rinat Fakhretdinov
MONEYLINE
LOST
—
Andreas Gustafsson
v Rinat Fakhretdinov
MONEYLINE
LOST
—
“I think there's just this feral lust for Andreas Gustafsson that he's just going to finish everyone.”
Line since pick
CLV −3%
◆ entry$1.87
→
close$1.93
entry: 1xBet · best in any region at publish
FZ
Farès Ziam
v Kauê Fernandes
MONEYLINE
VALUE
—
Farès Ziam
v Kauê Fernandes
MONEYLINE
VALUE
—
“Farès Ziam versus Kauê Fernandes. That's going to be a great fight because Farès Ziam is on his way up now.”
Line since pick
CLV +2%
◆ entry$1.33
→
now$1.30
entry: Betfair Sportsbook · best in any region at publish
NI
Nassourdine Imavov
v Caio Borralho
MONEYLINE
WON
—
Nassourdine Imavov
v Caio Borralho
MONEYLINE
WON
—
“you're looking for a pick, Nassourdine Imavov is there for the pick. But in terms of looking at it from like a um probability perspective, I think Caio Borralho has at least a 45% chance of winning this fight. You know, I think Nasadina Marov should be the slightest of betting favorites, which he originally was.”
Line since pick
CLV +0%
◆ entry$2.15
→
close$2.15
entry: Caesars · best in any region at publish
MR
Maurício Ruffy
v Benoît Saint Denis
PROP · KO/TKO
LOST
—
Maurício Ruffy
v Benoît Saint Denis
PROP · KO/TKO
LOST
—
“my pick here is going to be Maurício Ruffy. I reckon there's going to be a moment in which Maurício Ruffy just finds the chin, follows up with Grand Pound, and just ends the fight.”
Moneyline since pick
CLV −6%
◆ entry$1.53
→
close$1.62
Ruffy’s moneyline — prop lines aren’t quoted
BD
Benoît Saint Denis
v Maurício Ruffy
MONEYLINE
WON
—
Benoît Saint Denis
v Maurício Ruffy
MONEYLINE
WON
—
“I think that Benoît Saint Denis has a chance on the ground, but we're talking about Brify here, right?”
Line since pick
CLV +7%
◆ entry$2.85
→
close$2.66
entry: Betsson · best in any region at publish
BO
Bolaji Oki
v Mason Jones
MONEYLINE
LOST
—
Bolaji Oki
v Mason Jones
MONEYLINE
LOST
—
“I think Bolaji Oki will have probably a slight power edge on the feet.”
Line since pick
CLV +8%
◆ entry$2.40
→
close$2.22
entry: Betsson · best in any region at publish
PC
Paul Craig
v Modestas Bukauskas
MONEYLINE
LOST
—
Paul Craig
v Modestas Bukauskas
MONEYLINE
LOST
—
“Uh who doesn't predict a Paul Craig submission somewhere here, right?”
Line since pick
CLV −6%
◆ entry$3.75
→
close$4.00
entry: BetOnline.ag · best in any region at publish