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UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho
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NI CB Imavov vs BorralhoMain Card · Middleweight AG RF Gustafsson vs FakhretdinovPreliminary Card · Welterweight MT AD Tybura vs DelijaPreliminary Card · Heavyweight BO MJ Oki vs JonesMain Card · Lightweight SB SH Bannon vs HughesPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight BD MR Denis vs RuffyMain Card · Lightweight MB PC Bukauskas vs CraigMain Card · Light Heavyweight OS BR Sy vs RibeiroPreliminary Card · Light Heavyweight WG RR Gomis vs RuchałaMain Card · Featherweight SP TW Patterson vs WatersPreliminary Card · Welterweight BT RB Tavares vs BryczekPreliminary Card · Middleweight RM AS McKee vs SolaMain Card · Welterweight HH KF Hardwick vs FernandesPreliminary Card · Lightweight
BEST PRICE We back Patterson over Waters · Welterweight Our fair value$1.46 Coolbet pays above fair $1.57
Where to back Patterson best price · region · EV vs fair $1.46
US BetOnline.ag $1.55 +6%
UK Virgin Bet $1.53 +4%
EU Coolbet $1.57 +7%
AU Neds $1.55 +6%
PM Polymarket crowd exchange $1.60
Consensus132 picks · conf 99/99
Patterson 104
28 Waters
TILIAL pick Patterson
How it endsmethod calls · Patterson · crowd line
KO/TKO 15 $6.93
Submission 50 $2.08
Decision 4 $25.99
None 2 $51.99
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Patterson 14-2-1 VS 9-2 Waters
6'3" height 6'5"
170 lb weight 171 lb
78" reach 77"
30 age 31
Orthodox stance Orthodox
5.1 strikes landed / min 2.6
57% striking accuracy 42%
2.1 strikes absorbed / min 4.2
57% striking defence 52%
1.3 takedowns / 15 min 1.9
31% takedown accuracy 67%
71% takedown defence 84%
1.9 submissions / 15 min 1.3
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market68% vs 64%
Consensus104 of 132 analysts
Sharpest anglePatterson by Submission — 50 of 71 method calls
Recommendation Back Patterson @ $1.57 · fair $1.46 +7% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
TD The Rambling Dad picks Sam Patterson VALUE $1.52
WP We Want Picks picks Trey Waters VALUE “I think Trey Waters wins this fight. I'm picking him to win.”
FC Fighters’ Chronicles picks Trey Waters “Prediction: Trey Waters. His finishing instincts give him an edge in this evenly matched encounter.”
VM Verbal Sparring MMA picks Trey Waters “taking on Trey Waters who has a 9-1 professional record.”
VM Verbal Sparring MMA picks Sam Patterson “and the future Sam Patterson is back on this card in Europe.”
IM Il casual delle MMA picks Sam Patterson “Unë mendoj se ai do të jetë në gjendje ta marrë në shtëpi fitore.”
MP MMA Gems Podcast picks Trey Waters VALUE “I'm going to lean Trey Waters here.”
DC Dougies Corner picks Sam Patterson “Sam Patterson is going to knock out bloody Trey Waters, mate.”
SS Spinnin Backfist MMA Show picks Sam Patterson VALUE “This is I think this is an awesome fight. Sneaky like Yeah, sneaky. Two prospects that I think a lot of people don't know a lot about that I think both have a lot of potential. Plus 19. I I think they're both like interesting puzzles to solve.” $1.54
IZ Izzysdegenmind picks Sam Patterson “Give me Sam Patterson to win by submission” $1.52
BM Bruce Oldham MMA picks Sam Patterson “So, I'm going to go with Sam Patterson.”
BG BlomboMMA and Gaming picks Sam Patterson “I'm leaning Sam Patterson and I'm gonna go with Sam Patterson.”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Patterson14-2-1
L Page Decision · R3 Mar '26
W Waters KO/TKO · R1 Sep '25
W Barlow KO/TKO · R1 Mar '25
W Crosbie Submission · R1 Jul '24
W Lainesse Submission · R1 Jan '24
Waters9-2
L Patterson KO/TKO · R1 Sep '25
W Goff Decision · R3 May '24
W Quinlan Decision · R3 Apr '23