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UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho
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NI CB Imavov vs BorralhoMain Card · Middleweight AG RF Gustafsson vs FakhretdinovPreliminary Card · Welterweight MT AD Tybura vs DelijaPreliminary Card · Heavyweight BO MJ Oki vs JonesMain Card · Lightweight SB SH Bannon vs HughesPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight BD MR Denis vs RuffyMain Card · Lightweight MB PC Bukauskas vs CraigMain Card · Light Heavyweight OS BR Sy vs RibeiroPreliminary Card · Light Heavyweight WG RR Gomis vs RuchałaMain Card · Featherweight SP TW Patterson vs WatersPreliminary Card · Welterweight BT RB Tavares vs BryczekPreliminary Card · Middleweight RM AS McKee vs SolaMain Card · Welterweight HH KF Hardwick vs FernandesPreliminary Card · Lightweight
BEST PRICE We back Hardwick over Fernandes · Lightweight Our fair value$1.76 BetOnline.ag pays above fair $2.80
Where to back Hardwick best price · region · EV vs fair $1.76
US BetOnline.ag $2.80 +59%
UK Betfair Sportsbook $2.63 +49%
EU Pinnacle $2.76 +56%
AU SportsBet $2.67 +51%
Consensus26 picks · conf 50/99
Hardwick 26
0 Fernandes
TFSDST pick Hardwick
How it endsmethod calls · Hardwick · crowd line
KO/TKO 3 $5.29
Submission 1 $15.88
Decision 4 $3.97
None 1 $15.88
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Hardwick 13-4-1 VS 11-2 Fernandes
5'10" height 5'9"
156 lb weight 155 lb
71" reach 73"
31 age 31
Switch stance Orthodox
3.8 strikes landed / min 2.8
38% striking accuracy 64%
2.3 strikes absorbed / min 4.9
64% striking defence 57%
1.6 takedowns / 15 min 2.8
74% takedown accuracy 45%
60% takedown defence 58%
0.7 submissions / 15 min 0.9
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market57% vs 36%
Consensus26 of 26 analysts
Sharpest angleHardwick by Decision — 4 of 9 method calls
Recommendation Back Hardwick @ $2.80 · fair $1.76 +59% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
MC MMA MEDIA CLIPS picks Harry Hardwick “It's tough tough debut, but it is what it is. You know, he's in the UFC. Thank you for the sixuros.”
FC Fighters’ Chronicles picks Harry Hardwick “Prediction: Harry Hardwick. His composure and technical striking offer a clearer path to victory.”
IZ Izzysdegenmind picks Harry Hardwick “give me Kawei Fernandez to win by TKO or decision” $1.54
DN DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Harry Hardwick VALUE “give me Fernandez. Fernandez by decision in this one.”
TS The Ariel Helwani Show picks Harry Hardwick VALUE “No specific quote, but implied in analysis”
MM MMAnomaly picks Harry Hardwick VALUE “I like Harry Hardwick in this one.”
UG UFC GamblingAddicts picks Harry Hardwick VALUE “I'm not going to do that. Not even on short notice... I'm siding with the Englishman.”
SN SnorkelMMA picks Harry Hardwick “So now Harry Hardwick is stepped in on short notice. Hardwick is actually a different level right now.”
MN Mayo Media Network picks Harry Hardwick VALUE “I'm going with Bowskis.”
DO DonDaDa02 picks Harry Hardwick “taking Harry Hardwick to win.”
ST StaceymanMMA picks Harry Hardwick VALUE “Now, Harry Hardwick has stepped in uh I think on 5 days notice. Um personally to me, the reason I'm picking Harry is because I don't think Kauê Fernandes here has actually faced any UFC quality opponents yet.”
CO CozyBoyzMMA picks Harry Hardwick VALUE “I have Harry Harry Hardwick winning this fight.”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Hardwick13-4-1
L Rahiki KO/TKO · R2 Mar '26
L Fernandes KO/TKO · R1 Sep '25
Fernandes11-2
W Hardwick KO/TKO · R1 Sep '25
W Kutateladze Decision · R3 Mar '25
W Yahya KO/TKO · R1 Aug '24
L Diakiese Decision · R3 Nov '23