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Peña vs NunesMain Card · Women'S Bantamweight
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Blanchfield vs MaverickEarly Preliminary Card · Women'S Flyweight
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Kelley vs CostaEarly Preliminary Card · Bantamweight
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Robertson vs CachoeiraEarly Preliminary Card · Catchweight
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Silva vs WrightPreliminary Card · Middleweight
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Muniz vs AndersEarly Preliminary Card · Middleweight
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Blanchfield vs MaverickEarly Preliminary Card · Women'S Flyweight
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Hall vs MinnerEarly Preliminary Card · Featherweight
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Kelley vs CostaEarly Preliminary Card · Bantamweight
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Robertson vs CachoeiraEarly Preliminary Card · Catchweight
BEST PRICE
Prophecy read
Kelley v Costa
Bantamweight
Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
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Consensus5 picks · conf 15/99
K
pick Kelley
pick Kelley
Tale of the tape
the matchup, side by side
Kelley 8-3
VS
6-4 Costa
5'9"
height
—
137 lb
weight
—
70"
reach
—
39
age
31
Switch
stance
Switch
5.5
strikes landed / min
6.5
47%
striking accuracy
46%
4.8
strikes absorbed / min
7.6
45%
striking defence
58%
0.0
takedowns / 15 min
0.0
0%
takedown accuracy
0%
52%
takedown defence
50%
1.4
submissions / 15 min
0.0
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation
Locked our pick, the fair line & EV are Pro-only
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Analyst tape
every extracted call on this fight
DN
DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Randy Costa VALUE
“i like costa quite a bit here at 9k because i think he has that first round upside”
DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Randy Costa VALUE
“i like costa quite a bit here at 9k because i think he has that first round upside”
WP
We Want Picks picks Randy Costa VALUE
“i absolutely love Randy Costa here i've got a money line bet on him to win nine thousand dollars in draftkings”
We Want Picks picks Randy Costa VALUE
“i absolutely love Randy Costa here i've got a money line bet on him to win nine thousand dollars in draftkings”
KU
Kunath picks Tony Kelley VALUE
“tony kelly wins this fight and Tony Kelley at 7 200 i i'm putting him in a lot of my lineups”
Kunath picks Tony Kelley VALUE
“tony kelly wins this fight and Tony Kelley at 7 200 i i'm putting him in a lot of my lineups”
WP
We Want Picks picks Randy Costa VALUE
“i put two units on him i would go past 200 i mean i think i i obviously would have liked to get him a little cheaper but i like him at minus 200 i think i got it a little better i'll have to check uh to be sure but i definitely have a two unit money line on Randy Costa i just think it's a perfect match-up it's just the brawler versus solid technical striker was straight up the middle strikes”
$1.57
We Want Picks picks Randy Costa VALUE
“i put two units on him i would go past 200 i mean i think i i obviously would have liked to get him a little cheaper but i like him at minus 200 i think i got it a little better i'll have to check uh to be sure but i definitely have a two unit money line on Randy Costa i just think it's a perfect match-up it's just the brawler versus solid technical striker was straight up the middle strikes”
$1.57
ME
MMA EXPERTS picks Randy Costa VALUE
“i'm on team Randy Costa man i think Randy Costa gets it done”
$1.57
MMA EXPERTS picks Randy Costa VALUE
“i'm on team Randy Costa man i think Randy Costa gets it done”
$1.57
KU
Kunath picks Tony Kelley VALUE
“the pick for me is Tony Kelley”
Kunath picks Tony Kelley VALUE
“the pick for me is Tony Kelley”
Recent form
last five, most recent first
Kelley8-3
L
Yañez
Jun '22
W
Costa
Dec '21
W
AlQaisi
Oct '20
L
Kamaka III
Aug '20
Costa6-4
L
Cannetti
Oct '22
L
Kelley
Dec '21
L
Yañez
Jul '21
W
Newson
Sep '20
W
Salmon
Oct '19