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BEST PRICE Prophecy read Brown v Lima Welterweight Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
The edge on this fight is Pro-onlyPro unlocks our fair line, the EV% and which side we back — plus AI deep research on every fight. Go Pro →
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Consensus5 picks · conf 15/99
Brown 3
2 Lima
TGD pick Brown
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Brown 26-19 VS 17-9 Lima
6'0" height 6'2"
170 lb weight 171 lb
75" reach 75"
45 age 37
Orthodox stance Orthodox
3.8 strikes landed / min 3.1
55% striking accuracy 39%
2.9 strikes absorbed / min 3.9
55% striking defence 58%
1.7 takedowns / 15 min 1.3
46% takedown accuracy 34%
63% takedown defence 73%
1.3 submissions / 15 min 0.6
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
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Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
TG THE MMA GURU picks Matt Brown VALUE “Matt Brown Dhiego Lima good stuff”
DN DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Matt Brown “i don't hate Matt Brown as a pump play”
DN DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Dhiego Lima “as far as Dhiego Lima on the other side i think it's a solid spot as well”
UG UFC GamblingAddicts picks Dhiego Lima “i'm gonna side with Dhiego Lima” $1.59
ME MMA EXPERTS picks Dhiego Lima “i am gonna ride with Dhiego Lima he wins this fight and i do think it's gonna be a decision” $1.59
GP Greedo Plays picks Matt Brown “i'm gonna go tim means to beat danny roberts here”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Brown26-19
W McGee KO/TKO · R1 May '23
L Barberena Decision · R3 Mar '22
W Lima KO/TKO · R2 Jun '21
L Condit Decision · R3 Jan '21
L Baeza KO/TKO · R2 May '20
Lima17-9
L Brown KO/TKO · R2 Jun '21
L Muhammad Decision · R3 Feb '21
W Jumeau Decision · R3 Oct '19
W McGee Decision · R3 Apr '19
W Laprise KO/TKO · R1 Dec '18