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UFC on ABC: Hill vs. Rountree Jr.
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JH KJ Hill vs Jr.Main Card · Light Heavyweight RF IB Fiziev vs BahamondesMain Card · Lightweight CB RK Blaydes vs KunievMain Card · Heavyweight IN PJ Naurdiev vs Jun-yongPreliminary Card · Middleweight HA MU Abdelwahab vs UsmanPreliminary Card · Heavyweight NS NM Sadykhov vs MottaMain Card · Lightweight IA KS Alekseeva vs SygułaPreliminary Card · Women'S Bantamweight MN BG Naimov vs GradMain Card · Featherweight MM DZ Mullins vs ZheleznyakovaPreliminary Card · Women'S Bantamweight TU AM Ulanbekov vs MaksumPreliminary Card · Flyweight TM MO Musayev vs OrolbaiMain Card · Catchweight KS OE Seok-hyun vs ElliottPreliminary Card · Welterweight
BEST PRICE We back Naimov over Grad · Featherweight Our fair value$1.44 Neds pays above fair $1.50
Where to back Naimov best price · region · EV vs fair $1.44
US BetOnline.ag $1.45 +1%
UK Virgin Bet $1.44 +0%
EU Coolbet $1.46 +2%
AU Neds $1.50 +4%
Consensus36 picks · conf 58/99
Naimov 28
8 Grad
BBJD1T pick Naimov
How it endsmethod calls · Naimov · crowd line
KO/TKO 4 $6.11
Submission 3 $8.15
Decision 10 $2.44
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Naimov 11-3 VS 14-2 Grad
5'9" height 5'8"
146 lb weight 146 lb
70" reach 70"
31 age 30
Orthodox stance Orthodox
3.2 strikes landed / min 6.3
43% striking accuracy 47%
4.3 strikes absorbed / min 10.2
42% striking defence 49%
1.8 takedowns / 15 min 2.8
30% takedown accuracy 42%
57% takedown defence 0%
0.0 submissions / 15 min 0.0
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market70% vs 67%
Consensus28 of 36 analysts
Sharpest angleNaimov by Decision — 10 of 17 method calls
Recommendation Back Naimov @ $1.50 · fair $1.44 +4% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
CP Capper Comparison Picks picks Muhammad Naimov “I gotta go with uh Mohhamd Muhammad Naimov.”
RE RearNakedLocks picks Muhammad Naimov VALUE “I got uh Muhammad Naimov.” $3.35
KP Knockout Picks picks Muhammad Naimov “I like Muhammad Muhammad Naimov here to get this one done.”
BM BXG MMA picks Muhammad Naimov “I'm going to pick Naimov, man. I'm sorry, Bogdongrad. I'm sorry.”
BB Bookie Beatdown picks Bogdan Grad VALUE “I got bogged in grad, dude.” $3.05
BB Bookie Beatdown picks Muhammad Naimov VALUE “I'm kind of actually thinking Muhammad Naimov gets a KO here.” $4.00
PR Premium-Picks picks Muhammad Naimov “I'm going to keep riding him until I see a reason not to” $1.45
DI Diretasso picks Muhammad Naimov VALUE “o favorito é o Muhammad Naimov com 68%”
SD Santino DeFranco picks Bogdan Grad VALUE “I think I actually like Bogdan Grad in an upset here.” $3.05
SD Santino DeFranco picks Muhammad Naimov “I've got Muhammad Naimov. You've got Bogdan Grad Grad.” $1.42
RP Rparqs picks Muhammad Naimov VALUE “give me Naimov here... I think he knocks him out”
FF Fite Feed picks Muhammad Naimov “my pick for this fight is Muhammad Naimov. I think that his experience is going to edge out this win. He'll be able to mix in the grappling and still have good striking on the feet... I do have a pretty high confidence level, three out of five. I think he'll be able to get the win by decision.”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Naimov11-3
L Santos KO/TKO · R3 Dec '25
W Grad Decision · R3 Jun '25
W Ofli Decision · R3 Feb '25
L Lima Submission · R3 Jun '24
W Silva KO/TKO · R1 Feb '24
Grad14-2
L Riley KO/TKO · R2 Nov '25
L Naimov Decision · R3 Jun '25
W Alexander KO/TKO · R2 Feb '25