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UFC on ESPN: Lewis vs. Teixeira
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DL TT Lewis vs TeixeiraMain Card · Heavyweight JM CN Matthews vs NjokuaniPreliminary Card · Welterweight ST GB Thompson vs BonfimMain Card · Welterweight CK SG Kattar vs GarciaMain Card · Featherweight JT TT Tafa vs TokkosMain Card · Light Heavyweight VP AL Petrino vs LaneMain Card · Heavyweight MG CC Griffin vs CurtisPreliminary Card · Welterweight FK MM Kline vs MartinezPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight LM EM Murphy vs MouraPreliminary Card · Women'S Flyweight KN VW Nzechukwu vs WalkerPreliminary Card · Heavyweight MR MD Ramirez vs DavisPreliminary Card · Lightweight NL MC Landwehr vs CharrièreMain Card · Featherweight
BEST PRICE We back Matthews over Njokuani · Welterweight Our fair value$2.00 TAB pays above fair $2.25
Where to back Matthews best price · region · EV vs fair $2.00
US FanDuel $2.12 +6%
UK Paddy Power $2.10 +5%
EU Betsson $2.15 +8%
AU TAB $2.25 +12%
Consensus54 picks · conf 71/99
Matthews 32
22 Njokuani
RSCTTT pick Matthews
How it endsmethod calls · Matthews · crowd line
Submission 4 $8.50
Decision 13 $2.62
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Matthews 22-8 VS 25-11 Njokuani
5'11" height 6'3"
170 lb weight 171 lb
73" reach 80"
31 age 37
Orthodox stance Orthodox
5.9 strikes landed / min 4.6
41% striking accuracy 63%
2.6 strikes absorbed / min 2.7
47% striking defence 56%
2.2 takedowns / 15 min 0.0
40% takedown accuracy 0%
50% takedown defence 74%
1.8 submissions / 15 min 0.2
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market50% vs 44%
Consensus32 of 54 analysts
Sharpest angleMatthews by Decision — 13 of 17 method calls
Recommendation Back Matthews @ $2.25 · fair $2.00 +12% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
TD The Rambling Dad picks Jake Matthews VALUE “I got Jake Matthews. I've been watching him down the opposition.” $2.35
CP Capper Comparison Picks picks Chidi Njokuani “I got Chidi Njokuani by decision that's final pick”
CP Capper Comparison Picks picks Jake Matthews “I'm on Jake Matthews.”
FI FIGHTASTIC® picks Jake Matthews VALUE $2.35
SH Showtime50k picks Jake Matthews “I'm going to go Jake Matthews just overall uh MMA officiado working Chidi Njokuani and Jawani.”
MM MMAmarkz picks Chidi Njokuani “I'm going cheety”
UP UFC Bro Picks picks Chidi Njokuani “I'll go Chitty. I think he's a better striker and I think he can keep it on the feet.” $1.63
TN Turkish Lad News picks Chidi Njokuani VALUE “the picks, Nate Landwehr, Kennedy Nzechukwu, NOT_IN_ROSTER_1, Eduarda Moura, NOT_IN_ROSTER_2, Chidi Njokuani, Steve Garcia, Gabriel Bonfim, and Derrick Lewis.”
FF Fite Feed picks Jake Matthews “You got Jake Matthews”
TT Takedown Titan picks Chidi Njokuani “Chidi Njokuani versus Jake Matthews. I think Chidi Njokuani's going to win at the welterweight though. He missed way. Jake Matthews's way too inconsistent.”
TT The Action Network: Sports Betting Picks & Tips picks Jake Matthews VALUE “you're done waiting for this line to continue to go up, I assume. So, where's your price target on Matthews? What are you betting it down to? Yeah, I think I need the plus 130.” $2.40
KU Kunath picks Jake Matthews VALUE “I think that Jake Matthews, as long as he's urgent, as long as he's aggressive, fights a good game plan, I think he can win. And at plus money, I'll take it.”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Matthews22-8
W Harris Decision · R3 May '26
L Magny Submission · R3 Sep '25
W Njokuani Submission · R1 Jul '25
W Prado Decision · R3 Feb '25
W Rowe Decision · R3 Jun '24
Njokuani25-11
L Leal Decision · R3 Feb '26
L Matthews Submission · R1 Jul '25
W Santos KO/TKO · R2 Mar '25
W Gooden Decision · R3 Oct '24
W McKee Decision · R3 Mar '24