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UFC on ESPN: Lewis vs. Teixeira
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DL TT Lewis vs TeixeiraMain Card · Heavyweight JM CN Matthews vs NjokuaniPreliminary Card · Welterweight ST GB Thompson vs BonfimMain Card · Welterweight CK SG Kattar vs GarciaMain Card · Featherweight JT TT Tafa vs TokkosMain Card · Light Heavyweight VP AL Petrino vs LaneMain Card · Heavyweight MG CC Griffin vs CurtisPreliminary Card · Welterweight FK MM Kline vs MartinezPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight LM EM Murphy vs MouraPreliminary Card · Women'S Flyweight KN VW Nzechukwu vs WalkerPreliminary Card · Heavyweight MR MD Ramirez vs DavisPreliminary Card · Lightweight NL MC Landwehr vs CharrièreMain Card · Featherweight
BEST PRICE We back Thompson over Bonfim · Welterweight Our fair value$3.90 PlayUp pays above fair $5.00
Where to back Thompson best price · region · EV vs fair $3.90
US DraftKings $4.80 +23%
UK Virgin Bet $4.50 +15%
EU Pinnacle $4.96 +27%
AU PlayUp $5.00 +28%
Consensus54 picks · conf 71/99
Thompson 20
34 Bonfim
TSPSTT pick Thompson
How it endsmethod calls · Thompson · crowd line
KO/TKO 3 $24.71
Submission 3 $24.71
Decision 11 $6.74
None 2 $37.07
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Thompson 17-8-1 VS 19-1 Bonfim
6'0" height 6'1"
170 lb weight 170 lb
75" reach 72"
43 age 28
Orthodox stance Orthodox
4.1 strikes landed / min 5.8
46% striking accuracy 42%
3.0 strikes absorbed / min 4.4
55% striking defence 62%
0.2 takedowns / 15 min 2.9
41% takedown accuracy 75%
63% takedown defence 73%
0.0 submissions / 15 min 1.9
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market26% vs 20%
Consensus20 of 54 analysts
Sharpest angleThompson by Decision — 11 of 19 method calls
Recommendation Back Thompson @ $5.00 · fair $3.90 +28% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
CP Capper Comparison Picks picks Gabriel Bonfim “my tapology pick will be Gabriel Bonfim by submission.”
SH Showtime50k picks Stephen Thompson “I am going Stephen Thompson for this one. I do think he's going to win uh probably by decision, striking him for three rounds.”
MM MMAmarkz picks Gabriel Bonfim “I got to go Bone Fee”
TN Turkish Lad News picks Gabriel Bonfim VALUE “the picks, Nate Landwehr, Kennedy Nzechukwu, NOT_IN_ROSTER_1, Eduarda Moura, NOT_IN_ROSTER_2, Chidi Njokuani, Steve Garcia, Gabriel Bonfim, and Derrick Lewis.”
TT The Action Network: Sports Betting Picks & Tips picks Stephen Thompson “And then after round one, if he's not able to put Stephen Thompson away, I would be interested in betting Wonder Boy live.” $4.50
TT The Action Network: Sports Betting Picks & Tips picks Gabriel Bonfim VALUE “we both like Gabriel Bonfim to win in rounds one or two at plus 125.” $2.25
TM Topside MMA picks Stephen Thompson “give me Stephen Thompson by decision.”
WP We Want Picks picks Gabriel Bonfim “I'm going to pick Gabriel Bonfim here.”
SD Santino DeFranco picks Stephen Thompson VALUE “give me Thompson for the upset” $4.25
WT WagerTalk TV: Sports Picks and Betting Tips picks Stephen Thompson VALUE “I will take a sprinkle on Steven Thompson.” $5.00
RA Ringside Report Network - Combat Sports Authority picks Gabriel Bonfim “I think this is Gabriel Bonfim time.” $1.24
TP Tony's Picks picks Stephen Thompson VALUE “I'm going Stephen Stephen Thompson here at the plus 310 price.” $4.10
Recent form last five, most recent first
Thompson17-8-1
L Bonfim Decision · R3 Jul '25
L Buckley KO/TKO · R3 Oct '24
L Rakhmonov Submission · R2 Dec '23
W Holland KO/TKO · R4 Dec '22
L Muhammad Decision · R3 Dec '21
Bonfim19-1
W Muhammad Decision · R5 Jun '26
W Brown KO/TKO · R2 Nov '25
W Thompson Decision · R3 Jul '25
W Williams Submission · R2 Feb '25
W Loosa Decision · R3 Jul '24