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UFC on ESPN: Lewis vs. Teixeira
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BEST PRICE We back Curtis over Griffin · Welterweight Our fair value$1.30 Neds pays above fair $1.35
Where to back Curtis best price · region · EV vs fair $1.30
US FanDuel $1.34 +3%
UK Paddy Power $1.33 +2%
EU Pinnacle $1.33 +2%
AU Neds $1.35 +4%
Consensus49 picks · conf 69/99
Griffin 8
41 Curtis
PBABUC pick Griffin
How it endsmethod calls · Curtis · crowd line
KO/TKO 25 $3.03
Decision 33 $2.29
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Griffin 20-12 VS 32-12 Curtis
5'11" height 5'10"
170 lb weight 170 lb
76" reach 76"
40 age 38
Orthodox stance Orthodox
3.9 strikes landed / min 5.8
49% striking accuracy 51%
3.8 strikes absorbed / min 6.2
57% striking defence 52%
1.4 takedowns / 15 min 0.0
41% takedown accuracy 0%
68% takedown defence 82%
0.3 submissions / 15 min 0.0
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market77% vs 74%
Consensus41 of 49 analysts
Sharpest angleCurtis by Decision — 33 of 58 method calls
Recommendation Back Curtis @ $1.35 · fair $1.30 +4% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
CP Capper Comparison Picks picks Max Griffin “I gotta go NOT_IN_ROSTER_106.”
CP Capper Comparison Picks picks Chris Curtis “I'm sticking with my guns. Chris Curtis”
SH Showtime50k picks Chris Curtis “I'm going to go Chris Curtis. He's the He's the favorite.”
UP UFC Bro Picks picks Chris Curtis “I got Chris Curtis.” $1.33
TT Takedown Titan picks Chris Curtis “I got Chris Curtis being Max Griffin. Should be an easy one.”
UC UFC - CELEBRITIES AND CLASSICS picks Max Griffin “I think Max Griffin is having better boxing.”
TM Topside MMA picks Chris Curtis “give me Chris Curtis by decision in this one.”
WP We Want Picks picks Chris Curtis “I think Chris Curtis wins this fight.”
RA Ringside Report Network - Combat Sports Authority picks Chris Curtis “I think I'm going to take Chris Curtis in that fight, too.” $1.31
BE BetSam picks Chris Curtis VALUE “League One Slam of the Week, Chris Curtis, high confidence.”
MM Mayor MMA picks Chris Curtis VALUE “I'm going to pick Chris Curtis.”
SM Scrap MMA picks Chris Curtis VALUE “It's going to be Chris Curtis easily”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Griffin20-12
L Valenzuela Decision · R3 Apr '26
L Curtis Decision · R3 Jul '25
L Chiesa Submission · R3 Dec '24
W Wells Decision · R3 Feb '24
L Morales Decision · R3 Jul '23
Curtis32-12
L Orolbai Decision · R3 Mar '26
W Griffin Decision · R3 Jul '25
L Kopylov KO/TKO · R3 Jan '25
L Allen Decision · R5 Apr '24
W Barriault Decision · R3 Jan '24