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UFC on ESPN: Lewis vs. Teixeira
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DL TT Lewis vs TeixeiraMain Card · Heavyweight JM CN Matthews vs NjokuaniPreliminary Card · Welterweight ST GB Thompson vs BonfimMain Card · Welterweight CK SG Kattar vs GarciaMain Card · Featherweight JT TT Tafa vs TokkosMain Card · Light Heavyweight VP AL Petrino vs LaneMain Card · Heavyweight MG CC Griffin vs CurtisPreliminary Card · Welterweight FK MM Kline vs MartinezPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight LM EM Murphy vs MouraPreliminary Card · Women'S Flyweight KN VW Nzechukwu vs WalkerPreliminary Card · Heavyweight MR MD Ramirez vs DavisPreliminary Card · Lightweight NL MC Landwehr vs CharrièreMain Card · Featherweight
BEST PRICE We back Tokkos over Tafa · Light Heavyweight Our fair value$2.58 Pinnacle pays above fair $3.13
Where to back Tokkos best price · region · EV vs fair $2.58
US Caesars $3.05 +18%
UK Betfair Sportsbook $2.88 +12%
EU Pinnacle $3.13 +22%
AU SportsBet $2.97 +15%
Consensus56 picks · conf 71/99
Tafa 27
29 Tokkos
SSUETJ pick Tafa
How it endsmethod calls · Tokkos · crowd line
KO/TKO 6 $6.87
Submission 2 $20.61
Decision 8 $5.15
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Tafa 7-5 VS 11-5 Tokkos
6'3" height 6'4"
205 lb weight 206 lb
75" reach 76"
29 age 36
Orthodox stance Orthodox
2.1 strikes landed / min 3.3
62% striking accuracy 43%
4.6 strikes absorbed / min 4.6
55% striking defence 45%
1.8 takedowns / 15 min 2.0
49% takedown accuracy 100%
90% takedown defence 33%
1.3 submissions / 15 min 0.0
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market39% vs 32%
Consensus29 of 56 analysts
Sharpest angleTokkos by Decision — 8 of 16 method calls
Recommendation Back Tokkos @ $3.13 · fair $2.58 +22% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
CP Capper Comparison Picks picks Tuco Tokkos “I'm on Tuco.”
MM MMAmarkz picks Junior Tafa “I'm going Junior Tafa”
UP UFC Bro Picks picks Junior Tafa “I'm going to go with Topa.” $1.59
FF Fite Feed picks Junior Tafa “You got Junior Tafa”
TT The Action Network: Sports Betting Picks & Tips picks Junior Tafa “I think him winning heavily correlates with this fight going long.”
JR Jack Reaper picks Junior Tafa “I'm going to go with Junior Taffa because I've actually kind of heard of this guy once or twice before in my past.”
TM Topside MMA picks Tuco Tokkos “I'm going to go Tokos because I know he can he's had a better gas tank than Tafa.”
EB ESPN BET picks Junior Tafa VALUE “I'm going to take the money line at -175.” $1.57
WP We Want Picks picks Tuco Tokkos VALUE “I do think Tuco wins this fight.”
WT WagerTalk TV: Sports Picks and Betting Tips picks Junior Tafa “I'll go Junior Tafa, you take toos,”
BS Betting Weekly Studios picks Junior Tafa “we obviously did mention Junior Tafa and Tuco Tokkos.”
RA Ringside Report Network - Combat Sports Authority picks Tuco Tokkos VALUE “I'm going with Tuko Toos. What? Just because of the name, I think. Maybe.” $2.35
Recent form last five, most recent first
Tafa7-5
L Baraniewski KO/TKO · R1 Jun '26
W Christian KO/TKO · R1 May '26
L Elekana Submission · R2 Feb '26
L Tokkos Submission · R2 Jul '25
W Sharaf KO/TKO · R2 Oct '24
Tokkos11-5
L Erslan Decision · R3 May '26
W Tafa Submission · R2 Jul '25
L Stirling Decision · R3 Dec '24
L Sy Submission · R1 May '24