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Alencar vs CarnelossiPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight
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AD
Cortes-Acosta vs DelijaMain Card · Heavyweight
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Vieira vs DumontPreliminary Card · Women'S Bantamweight
AA
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Ardelean vs RuizPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight
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Rowe vs Seok-hyunPreliminary Card · Welterweight
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Alencar vs CarnelossiPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight
AN
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Nascimento vs DurdenMain Card · Catchweight
BEST PRICE
We back
Carnelossi
over Alencar · Women'S Strawweight
Our fair value$2.73
Betsson
pays above fair
$3.20
Best prices · Carnelossi
BetMGM · US
$3.00
Grosvenor · UK
$2.95
Betsson · EU
$3.20
TAB · AU
$3.00
Where to back Carnelossi
best price · region · EV vs fair $2.73
US
BetMGM
$3.00
+10%
BetMGM
$3.00
+10%
UK
Grosvenor
$2.95
+8%
Grosvenor
$2.95
+8%
EU
BET
Betsson
$3.20
+17%
AU
TAB
$3.00
+10%
TAB
$3.00
+10%
PM
PM
Polymarket crowd exchange
$2.80
How it endsmethod calls · Carnelossi · crowd line
Decision
1
$2.73
Tale of the tape
the matchup, side by side
Alencar 7-1-1
VS
15-4 Carnelossi
5'1"
height
5'2"
115 lb
weight
115 lb
58"
reach
61"
35
age
33
Orthodox
stance
Orthodox
2.5
strikes landed / min
2.9
28%
striking accuracy
39%
4.8
strikes absorbed / min
4.7
52%
striking defence
45%
2.0
takedowns / 15 min
1.4
13%
takedown accuracy
55%
50%
takedown defence
14%
0.0
submissions / 15 min
0.3
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
Hit “Run deep research” to pull the latest from X and the news.
What the numbers say
Model vs market37% vs 31%
Consensus13 of 27 analysts
Sharpest angleCarnelossi by Decision — 1 of 1 method calls
Recommendation
Back Carnelossi @ $3.20 · fair $2.73
+17% EDGE
Analyst tape
every extracted call on this fight
MC
McManusMMA picks Ariane Carnelossi
“I think that Ariane Carnelossi is gonna absolutely smash. ... She's going to win.”
McManusMMA picks Ariane Carnelossi
“I think that Ariane Carnelossi is gonna absolutely smash. ... She's going to win.”
MP
MMA Gems Podcast picks Talita Alencar
“I'm taking like the the moneyline pick on Talita Alencar. I just think that she'll win this fight handedly.”
MMA Gems Podcast picks Talita Alencar
“I'm taking like the the moneyline pick on Talita Alencar. I just think that she'll win this fight handedly.”
MA
MMA Attic picks Talita Alencar
“picked up Talita Alencar as a minus 240 favorite for 2.4 units.”
$1.42
MMA Attic picks Talita Alencar
“picked up Talita Alencar as a minus 240 favorite for 2.4 units.”
$1.42
MM
MMA Mechanic picks Ariane Carnelossi
“I think she's gonna win this fight just by being the bigger stronger woman. Both are going to press forward. Both are going to impose try and impose their will. I think Carninals has this one.”
MMA Mechanic picks Ariane Carnelossi
“I think she's gonna win this fight just by being the bigger stronger woman. Both are going to press forward. Both are going to impose try and impose their will. I think Carninals has this one.”
ME
MMA EXPERTS picks Talita Alencar
“I think Talita Alencar probably takes Ariane Carnelossi down and does some work with the grappling in this one.”
MMA EXPERTS picks Talita Alencar
“I think Talita Alencar probably takes Ariane Carnelossi down and does some work with the grappling in this one.”
DN
DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Talita Alencar
“u got to go Talita Alencar here. Uh I think she wins Themba Gorimbo fight 500.”
DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Talita Alencar
“u got to go Talita Alencar here. Uh I think she wins Themba Gorimbo fight 500.”
1M
138 MMA picks Talita Alencar
“I'm gonna take Talita Alencar.”
138 MMA picks Talita Alencar
“I'm gonna take Talita Alencar.”
TO
TonyHasDiedMMA picks Talita Alencar
“I'm gonna pick Talita Alencar to win.”
TonyHasDiedMMA picks Talita Alencar
“I'm gonna pick Talita Alencar to win.”
TM
Topside MMA picks Talita Alencar
“Pick's got to be Talita Alencar though because she's just the better fighter all around.”
Topside MMA picks Talita Alencar
“Pick's got to be Talita Alencar though because she's just the better fighter all around.”
RM
Rare MMA picks Talita Alencar
“Talita Alencar is a decent BJJ fighter with good submissions. She who have a reach advantage where Ariane Carnelossi is a literally the female version of Waldo Cortes-Acosta and is 100% roided”
Rare MMA picks Talita Alencar
“Talita Alencar is a decent BJJ fighter with good submissions. She who have a reach advantage where Ariane Carnelossi is a literally the female version of Waldo Cortes-Acosta and is 100% roided”
SG
Savant of the Fight Game picks Ariane Carnelossi
“I'm going to go with Ariane Carnelossi.”
Savant of the Fight Game picks Ariane Carnelossi
“I'm going to go with Ariane Carnelossi.”
Recent form
last five, most recent first
Alencar7-1-1
W
Polastri
Apr '26
W
Carnelossi
Nov '25
W
Demopoulos
Apr '25
L
Luciano
Aug '24
W
Santos
Dec '23
Carnelossi15-4
L
Souza
Jun '26
L
Alencar
Nov '25
W
Rodríguez
May '24
L
Godinez
May '22
W
Nunes
Oct '21