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BR MK Royval vs KapeMain Card · Flyweight GC KV Chikadze vs VallejosMain Card · Featherweight CA CO Almeida vs OleksiejczukMain Card · Middleweight MC MC Costa vs CharrièreMain Card · Featherweight KN MB Nzechukwu vs BuchechaMain Card · Heavyweight NM YA Magny vs AmosovPreliminary Card · Welterweight SS SA Sharaf vs AsplundPreliminary Card · Heavyweight MC LS Croden vs SantosPreliminary Card · Women'S Bantamweight AF GP Frye vs PatPreliminary Card · Heavyweight JH TB Horth vs BledáPreliminary Card · Women'S Flyweight KG LJ Green vs Jr.Main Card · Catchweight JB IT Brito vs ThomsonPreliminary Card · Featherweight
BEST PRICE We back Costa over Charrière · Featherweight Our fair value$1.75 Betfair Sportsbook pays above fair $1.91
Where to back Costa best price · region · EV vs fair $1.75
US BetUS $1.67 -4%
UK Betfair Sportsbook $1.91 +9%
EU LeoVegas (SE) $1.89 +8%
AU Unibet $1.67 -4%
PM Polymarket crowd exchange $1.69
Consensus171 picks · conf 99/99
Costa 105
66 Charrière
ITEITM pick Costa
How it endsmethod calls · Costa · crowd line
Submission 4 $6.12
Decision 10 $2.45
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Costa 26-7 VS 20-10-1 Charrière
5'10" height 5'8"
145 lb weight 146 lb
71" reach 69"
29 age 30
Southpaw stance Orthodox
3.5 strikes landed / min 3.9
46% striking accuracy 51%
2.3 strikes absorbed / min 3.7
58% striking defence 57%
2.5 takedowns / 15 min 2.5
35% takedown accuracy 57%
52% takedown defence 83%
1.1 submissions / 15 min 0.6
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market57% vs 52%
Consensus105 of 171 analysts
Sharpest angleCosta by Decision — 10 of 14 method calls
Recommendation Back Costa @ $1.91 · fair $1.75 +9% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
MU MustardKetchupMayo1000 picks Melquizael Costa “Melquizael Costa has it. I believe in Melquizael Costa.”
MM MASKED MMA picks Melquizael Costa “I'm going with Melquizael Costa.”
DR DRYWALL picks Morgan Charrière “He subs him. He subs him in the first.”
FI FIGHTBLOODLINE picks Morgan Charrière “give me Morgan Charrière by decision”
ES etoft21 sports picks Melquizael Costa VALUE “I'm going to start the night off with talking about the Melquizael Costa versus Morgan Charrière featherweight fight. And I'm going to go ahead and take Morgan Sharie.” $5.66
TP The MMA War Room Podcast picks Melquizael Costa “I'm all over Melquizael Costa here.”
MR MMA Randy picks Melquizael Costa “I think Morgan Charrière loses to a”
KL KlasickMMA picks Melquizael Costa “Give me Melquizael Costa by decision.”
RM Round by Round MMA picks Melquizael Costa “give me Melquizael Costa in this matchup.”
MF Matt’Or Fact picks Morgan Charrière “I think Morgan Charrière can get the win.”
IM IMIGHTBEWRONG MMA picks Melquizael Costa “I can really see Melquizael Costa Melquizael Costa rounds two or three finish.”
FI Fight_Numerology picks Melquizael Costa “I am going with Melquizael Costa”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Costa26-7
L Allen Decision · R5 May '26
W Ige KO/TKO · R1 Feb '26
W Charrière KO/TKO · R1 Dec '25
W Erosa Decision · R3 May '25
W Rodriguez Decision · R3 Mar '25
Charrière20-10-1
L Costa KO/TKO · R1 Dec '25
W Landwehr KO/TKO · R3 Jul '25
L Wood Decision · R3 Mar '25
W Miranda KO/TKO · R2 Sep '24
L Mariscal Decision · R3 Apr '24