MMA Prophecy
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UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan
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RM CD Moicano vs DuncanMain Card · Lightweight VJ TR Jandiroba vs RicciMain Card · Women'S Strawweight AY BR Yakhyaev vs RibeiroMain Card · Light Heavyweight EE RE Ewing vs EstevamMain Card · Catchweight TM MZ McMillen vs ZecchiniMain Card · Featherweight GP TP Pat vs PetersenPreliminary Card · Heavyweight JD RR Delano vs RuchałaMain Card · Featherweight AC SN Costa vs NicollPreliminary Card · Flyweight LV DF Vannata vs FlowersPreliminary Card · Catchweight AP HC Pereira vs CowanPreliminary Card · Women'S Bantamweight AB TG Bekoev vs GorePreliminary Card · Middleweight DB MG Barbosa vs GattoPreliminary Card · Women'S Flyweight KI DH III vs HopePreliminary Card · Lightweight
BEST PRICE We back Costa over Nicoll · Flyweight Our fair value$1.20 PlayUp pays above fair $1.25
Where to back Costa best price · region · EV vs fair $1.20
US BetRivers $1.24 +3%
UK William Hill (UK) $1.25 +4%
EU Pinnacle $1.25 +4%
AU PlayUp $1.25 +4%
PM Polymarket crowd exchange $1.25
Consensus76 picks · conf 77/99
Costa 71
5 Nicoll
TTRMBH pick Costa
How it endsmethod calls · Costa · crowd line
KO/TKO 4 $3.91
Submission 1 $15.66
Decision 8 $1.96
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Costa 15-5 VS 8-2 Nicoll
5'4" height 5'5"
125 lb weight 126 lb
67" reach 65"
30 age 31
Orthodox stance Orthodox
4.2 strikes landed / min 2.5
48% striking accuracy 60%
4.1 strikes absorbed / min 4.3
62% striking defence 51%
2.9 takedowns / 15 min 0.8
54% takedown accuracy 41%
69% takedown defence 80%
0.4 submissions / 15 min 0.2
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market83% vs 80%
Consensus71 of 76 analysts
Sharpest angleCosta by Decision — 8 of 13 method calls
Recommendation Back Costa @ $1.25 · fair $1.20 +4% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
SM Surnett MMA picks Stewart Nicoll VALUE “I like Stewart Nicoll Stewart Nicoll”
SM Surnett MMA picks Alessandro Costa VALUE “we're going to go with Alessandro Costa H”
RA RameiMMA picks Alessandro Costa VALUE “I'm going to pick Alessandro Costa by decision”
GM GLO MMA picks Alessandro Costa VALUE “I'm gonna have to go and pick Alessandro Costa to get this [__] done... via first round knockout”
CA CasualMMA picks Alessandro Costa VALUE “I'm picking Alessandro Costa just based off his resume”
SA Stoic Athlete picks Alessandro Costa VALUE “We're going to go with Alessandro Costa. He's just better.”
NM Next MMA picks Alessandro Costa “Therefore, I'm going with Alessandro Costa, and why not?”
JE JetChaosMMA picks Alessandro Costa VALUE “I'm going to go Costa here by decision”
PW P Welsh picks Alessandro Costa VALUE “I like Alessandro Costa, man. He's a good fighter. I think he's tough. I I want to see Nickel really have the fight of his life. I think that's what it's going to take to beat him.”
TW The MMA Way picks Alessandro Costa VALUE “I think Alessandro Costa is going to take that fight, but I uh let me see... 6040 fight. 40 leaning to Stewart, 60 leaning to Alessandro Costa. I think Alessandro Costa wins.”
RX RX picks Alessandro Costa “giving Aleandro Costa by decision”
SP SportsLine picks Alessandro Costa VALUE “I like Alessandro Costa to win this fight by knockout or submission.” $1.24
Recent form last five, most recent first
Costa15-5
W Schnell KO/TKO · R1 Jun '26
W Nicoll KO/TKO · R2 Apr '26
L Coria KO/TKO · R3 Sep '25
W Borjas KO/TKO · R2 May '24
L Erceg Decision · R3 Nov '23
Nicoll8-2
L Costa KO/TKO · R2 Apr '26
L Rocha Decision · R3 Oct '25
L Aguilar Submission · R1 Aug '24