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UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan
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RM CD Moicano vs DuncanMain Card · Lightweight VJ TR Jandiroba vs RicciMain Card · Women'S Strawweight AY BR Yakhyaev vs RibeiroMain Card · Light Heavyweight EE RE Ewing vs EstevamMain Card · Catchweight TM MZ McMillen vs ZecchiniMain Card · Featherweight GP TP Pat vs PetersenPreliminary Card · Heavyweight JD RR Delano vs RuchałaMain Card · Featherweight AC SN Costa vs NicollPreliminary Card · Flyweight LV DF Vannata vs FlowersPreliminary Card · Catchweight AP HC Pereira vs CowanPreliminary Card · Women'S Bantamweight AB TG Bekoev vs GorePreliminary Card · Middleweight DB MG Barbosa vs GattoPreliminary Card · Women'S Flyweight KI DH III vs HopePreliminary Card · Lightweight
BEST PRICE We back Barbosa over Gatto · Women'S Flyweight Our fair value$1.69 FanDuel pays above fair $1.91
Where to back Barbosa best price · region · EV vs fair $1.69
US FanDuel $1.91 +13%
UK Paddy Power $1.90 +12%
EU Unibet (NL) $1.89 +12%
AU SportsBet $1.90 +12%
PM Polymarket crowd exchange $1.96
Consensus87 picks · conf 81/99
Barbosa 63
24 Gatto
TMBAPB pick Barbosa
How it endsmethod calls · Barbosa · crowd line
Submission 2 $16.94
Decision 18 $1.88
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Barbosa 8-4 VS 9-2-2 Gatto
5'6" height 5'5"
125 lb weight 125 lb
66" reach 69"
34 age 30
Orthodox stance Orthodox
1.9 strikes landed / min 3.8
48% striking accuracy 49%
2.5 strikes absorbed / min 2.8
66% striking defence 54%
1.7 takedowns / 15 min 1.5
28% takedown accuracy 28%
42% takedown defence 63%
2.2 submissions / 15 min 0.5
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market59% vs 52%
Consensus63 of 87 analysts
Sharpest angleBarbosa by Decision — 18 of 20 method calls
Recommendation Back Barbosa @ $1.91 · fair $1.69 +13% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
IT itsLukas picks Dione Barbosa VALUE “Dione Barbosa by decision”
GM GLO MMA picks Dione Barbosa VALUE “I'm going to go and pick Melissa Gate to get this [__] done via second round TKL body shot”
CA CasualMMA picks Dione Barbosa VALUE “I'm gonna pick Dione Barbosa by decision”
SM Simple MMA picks Dione Barbosa VALUE “Give me Dione Barbosa.”
OR One More Round picks Melissa Gatto “Melissa Gatto decision”
NM Next MMA picks Melissa Gatto “I'm going with Melissa Gatto ... going with Melissa Gatto and I think it will be by decision.”
WP We Want Picks picks Dione Barbosa “I do think she wins... I'm on the Barbosza side”
CT CthulhuCycle picks Dione Barbosa “I would still would go with Dione Barbosa”
JE JetChaosMMA picks Dione Barbosa VALUE “I'm going to go Dione Barbosa by decision”
BM Bedtime MMA picks Dione Barbosa “Okay, I'm going to go with Dione Barbosa to win”
PW P Welsh picks Melissa Gatto VALUE “I like Melissa Gatto here. I think Melissa Gatto comes in there and wants to really throw violence. Um I think she'll get the better over Dione Barbosa”
RX RX picks Melissa Gatto “I'm going Melissa Melissa Gatto here in the return”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Barbosa8-4
W Gatto Decision · R3 Apr '26
L Silva Decision · R3 Aug '25
W Belbiţă Submission · R1 Apr '25
L Maverick Decision · R3 Jul '24
W Kareckaitė Decision · R3 May '24
Gatto9-2-2
L Barbosa Decision · R3 Apr '26
W Vidal KO/TKO · R3 May '24
L Lipski Decision · R3 Jul '23
L Cortez Decision · R3 May '22
W Eubanks KO/TKO · R3 Dec '21