Choose a fight to analyse
JP
CU
Procházka vs UlbergFight Card · Light Heavyweight
CB
JH
Blaydes vs HokitFight Card · Heavyweight
DR
JW
Reyes vs WalkerFight Card · Light Heavyweight
AM
PC
Murzakanov vs CostaFight Card · Light Heavyweight
PP
AP
Pitbull vs PicoPreliminary Card · Featherweight
CS
NL
Swanson vs LandwehrFight Card · Featherweight
MG
ER
Gamrot vs RibovicsPreliminary Card · Lightweight
KH
RB
Holland vs BrownPreliminary Card · Welterweight
KG
VL
Gastelum vs LuqueEarly Preliminary Card · Middleweight
MM
CP
Mederos vs PadillaEarly Preliminary Card · Catchweight
CR
FP
Radtke vs PradoEarly Preliminary Card · Welterweight
TS
LG
Suarez vs GodínezPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight
CU
Procházka vs UlbergFight Card · Light Heavyweight
CB
JH
Blaydes vs HokitFight Card · Heavyweight
DR
JW
Reyes vs WalkerFight Card · Light Heavyweight
AM
PC
Murzakanov vs CostaFight Card · Light Heavyweight
PP
AP
Pitbull vs PicoPreliminary Card · Featherweight
CS
NL
Swanson vs LandwehrFight Card · Featherweight
MG
ER
Gamrot vs RibovicsPreliminary Card · Lightweight
KH
RB
Holland vs BrownPreliminary Card · Welterweight
KG
VL
Gastelum vs LuqueEarly Preliminary Card · Middleweight
MM
CP
Mederos vs PadillaEarly Preliminary Card · Catchweight
CR
FP
Radtke vs PradoEarly Preliminary Card · Welterweight
TS
LG
Suarez vs GodínezPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight
BEST PRICE
We back
Padilla
over Mederos · Catchweight
Our fair value$1.53
pays above fair
$1.65
Best prices · Padilla
Caesars · US
$1.65
Paddy Power · UK
$1.62
Pinnacle · EU
$1.64
PointsBet (AU) · AU
$1.63
Where to back Padilla
best price · region · EV vs fair $1.53
US
Caesars
$1.65
+8%
Caesars
$1.65
+8%
UK
Paddy Power
$1.62
+6%
Paddy Power
$1.62
+6%
EU
Pinnacle
$1.64
+8%
Pinnacle
$1.64
+8%
AU
PointsBet (AU)
$1.63
+7%
PointsBet (AU)
$1.63
+7%
PM
PM
Polymarket crowd exchange
$1.61
How it endsmethod calls · Padilla · crowd line
KO/TKO
1
$48.82
Submission
1
$48.82
Decision
30
$1.63
Tale of the tape
the matchup, side by side
Mederos 11-1-1
VS
0-0 Padilla
5'10"
height
5'9"
155 lb
weight
155 lb
70"
reach
74"
29
age
30
Orthodox
stance
Orthodox
4.7
strikes landed / min
5.8
41%
striking accuracy
61%
4.8
strikes absorbed / min
4.9
45%
striking defence
46%
1.9
takedowns / 15 min
3.3
32%
takedown accuracy
75%
71%
takedown defence
0%
0.6
submissions / 15 min
1.1
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
Hit “Run deep research” to pull the latest from X and the news.
What the numbers say
Model vs market66% vs 61%
Consensus118 of 153 analysts
Sharpest anglePadilla by Decision — 30 of 32 method calls
Recommendation
Back Padilla @ $1.65 · fair $1.53
+8% EDGE
Analyst tape
every extracted call on this fight
IT
itsLukas picks Chris Padilla
“I'm going with Chris Padilla Padilla.”
itsLukas picks Chris Padilla
“I'm going with Chris Padilla Padilla.”
CA
CasualMMA picks Chris Padilla VALUE
“I'm going to go Chris Padilla. He's a little more experienced. I think uh he's going to be able to edge out a crafty vet win.”
CasualMMA picks Chris Padilla VALUE
“I'm going to go Chris Padilla. He's a little more experienced. I think uh he's going to be able to edge out a crafty vet win.”
LM
Loki MMA picks MarQuel Mederos VALUE
“MarQuel Mederos took a big jump in his last fight... I think as long as those areas continue to improve... give me MarQuel Mederos by decision.”
Loki MMA picks MarQuel Mederos VALUE
“MarQuel Mederos took a big jump in his last fight... I think as long as those areas continue to improve... give me MarQuel Mederos by decision.”
RA
RameiMMA picks Chris Padilla VALUE
“Chris Padilla by round two”
RameiMMA picks Chris Padilla VALUE
“Chris Padilla by round two”
GM
GLO MMA picks Chris Padilla VALUE
“Chris Padilla”
GLO MMA picks Chris Padilla VALUE
“Chris Padilla”
PM
Pak MMA picks Chris Padilla VALUE
“I'm going to be picking NOT_IN_ROSTER_9 Chris Padilla here”
Pak MMA picks Chris Padilla VALUE
“I'm going to be picking NOT_IN_ROSTER_9 Chris Padilla here”
IV
IVUFC picks Chris Padilla
“I'm taking Chris Padilla”
IVUFC picks Chris Padilla
“I'm taking Chris Padilla”
CO
CozyBoyzMMA picks Chris Padilla VALUE
“I think KO is the more likely outcome than the submission.”
CozyBoyzMMA picks Chris Padilla VALUE
“I think KO is the more likely outcome than the submission.”
KO
Kyle OHare picks Chris Padilla
“I'm going to go with Chris Padilla.”
Kyle OHare picks Chris Padilla
“I'm going to go with Chris Padilla.”
BM
Bozing MMA picks Chris Padilla
“I think Chris Padilla will take this one by decision Chris Padilla is better though, better wins.”
Bozing MMA picks Chris Padilla
“I think Chris Padilla will take this one by decision Chris Padilla is better though, better wins.”
TH
TheFinalRoundHQ picks Chris Padilla VALUE
TheFinalRoundHQ picks Chris Padilla VALUE
MJ
Mukbang with jj picks Chris Padilla VALUE
“Chris Padilla probably by decision”
Mukbang with jj picks Chris Padilla VALUE
“Chris Padilla probably by decision”
Recent form
last five, most recent first
Mederos11-1-1
W
Choinski
Jun '25
W
Hubbard
Mar '25
Padilla0-0
W
Bonfim
Nov '25
W
Herbert
Mar '25
W
Zhu
Sep '24
W
Llontop
Apr '24