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UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo
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SY DF Yadong vs FigueiredoMain Card · Bantamweight ZM AM Mingyang vs MenifieldMain Card · Light Heavyweight SP TT Pavlovich vs TeixeiraMain Card · Heavyweight KA CS Asakura vs SmothermanMain Card · Bantamweight AP SM Perez vs MudaerjiMain Card · Flyweight LY LD Yi-sak vs DiasPreliminary Card · Middleweight DM JS Meng vs SouzaPreliminary Card · Welterweight AQ CH Qileng vs HaddonPreliminary Card · Bantamweight AH XJ Hill vs JingnanPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight LL JA Lookboonmee vs AmorimPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight JM CH Matthews vs HarrisMain Card · Welterweight RT LG Tsuruya vs GurulePreliminary Card · Bantamweight ZK RV Kangjie vs VeraPreliminary Card · Featherweight
BEST PRICE We back Pavlovich over Teixeira · Heavyweight Our fair value$1.15 Betfair Sportsbook pays above fair $1.22
Where to back Pavlovich best price · region · EV vs fair $1.15
US BetUS $1.17 +1%
UK Betfair Sportsbook $1.22 +6%
EU 1xBet $1.18 +2%
AU Bet Right $1.17 +1%
Consensus94 picks · conf 83/99
Pavlovich 89
5 Teixeira
Y1PTSM pick Pavlovich
How it endsmethod calls · Pavlovich · crowd line
KO/TKO 26 $1.38
Decision 5 $7.15
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Pavlovich 20-3 VS 9-1 Teixeira
6'3" height 6'7"
255 lb weight 259 lb
84" reach 83"
34 age 26
Southpaw stance Orthodox
3.1 strikes landed / min 14.9
44% striking accuracy 54%
3.3 strikes absorbed / min 9.7
66% striking defence 58%
1.8 takedowns / 15 min 0.0
25% takedown accuracy 0%
64% takedown defence 0%
1.1 submissions / 15 min 0.0
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market87% vs 82%
Consensus89 of 94 analysts
Sharpest anglePavlovich by KO/TKO — 26 of 31 method calls
Recommendation Back Pavlovich @ $1.22 · fair $1.15 +6% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
TH ThatBettingDude picks Sergei Pavlovich “I do see Sergei Pavlovich winning by KO.”
SD Santino DeFranco picks Sergei Pavlovich “I think Sergei Pavlovich's hips and wrestling are going to do what they need to do. And I I think he's going to batter um, Tallison Teixeira.” $1.17
HN Hidden Source News picks Tallison Teixeira “My pick is Talison Tallison Teixeira, but I got to say, buy or beware.”
WP Winning In The Shadows Bets and Predictions picks Tallison Teixeira “I'll take the shot and say Tallison Teixeira.”
CA CanIBeCoopy picks Sergei Pavlovich “I'm going Sergei Pavlovich KO first round probably within the first two minutes”
MT Matthew Tennant picks Sergei Pavlovich “he will knock this guy out in the first round”
MT Matthew Tennant picks Sergei Pavlovich “This is Sergey Palic by knockout in round one.”
CC Cage Conversations picks Sergei Pavlovich “With all that, I'm going to go ahead and stick with Sergei Pavlovich.”
TP Tony's Picks picks Sergei Pavlovich “I think Sergei Pavlovich comes out here and knocks out Tallison Teixeira. Give me the uh KO.” $1.16
TH THATMMABRO picks Sergei Pavlovich “round one KO um incoming by Sergei Pavlovich here.”
BI Big_J_MMA picks Sergei Pavlovich “I don't see this fight going any other way than Sergei Pavlovich round one KO... easy pick Sergei Pavlovich”
SH ShiestyMMA picks Sergei Pavlovich “Sergei Pavlovich should by all means, by all accounts, win this.”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Pavlovich20-3
W Teixeira KO/TKO · R1 May '26
W Cortes-Acosta Decision · R3 Aug '25
W Rozenstruik Decision · R3 Feb '25
L Volkov Decision · R3 Jun '24
L Aspinall KO/TKO · R1 Nov '23
Teixeira9-1
L Pavlovich KO/TKO · R1 May '26
W Tuivasa Decision · R3 Feb '26
L Lewis KO/TKO · R1 Jul '25
W Tafa KO/TKO · R1 Feb '25