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Matthews vs HarrisMain Card · Welterweight
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Yadong vs FigueiredoMain Card · Bantamweight
ZM
AM
Mingyang vs MenifieldMain Card · Light Heavyweight
SP
TT
Pavlovich vs TeixeiraMain Card · Heavyweight
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CS
Asakura vs SmothermanMain Card · Bantamweight
AP
SM
Perez vs MudaerjiMain Card · Flyweight
LY
LD
Yi-sak vs DiasPreliminary Card · Middleweight
DM
JS
Meng vs SouzaPreliminary Card · Welterweight
AQ
CH
Qileng vs HaddonPreliminary Card · Bantamweight
AH
XJ
Hill vs JingnanPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight
LL
JA
Lookboonmee vs AmorimPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight
JM
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Matthews vs HarrisMain Card · Welterweight
RT
LG
Tsuruya vs GurulePreliminary Card · Bantamweight
ZK
RV
Kangjie vs VeraPreliminary Card · Featherweight
BEST PRICE
We back
Harris
over Matthews · Welterweight
Our fair value$2.72
Caesars · US
$4.80
LeoVegas · UK
$4.70
Where to back Harris
best price · region · EV vs fair $2.72
US
Caesars
$4.80
+76%
Caesars
$4.80
+76%
UK
LeoVegas
$4.70
+73%
LeoVegas
$4.70
+73%
EU
Pinnacle
$4.78
+76%
AU
Bet Right
$4.90
+80%
Consensus3 picks · conf 10/99
pick Matthews
How it endsmethod calls · Harris · crowd line
Submission
1
$2.72
Tale of the tape
the matchup, side by side
Matthews 22-8
VS
19-7 Harris
5'11"
height
6'0"
170 lb
weight
170 lb
73"
reach
76"
31
age
38
Orthodox
stance
Orthodox
5.9
strikes landed / min
3.2
41%
striking accuracy
49%
2.6
strikes absorbed / min
2.7
47%
striking defence
52%
2.2
takedowns / 15 min
2.0
40%
takedown accuracy
29%
50%
takedown defence
55%
1.8
submissions / 15 min
0.8
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
Hit “Run deep research” to pull the latest from X and the news.
What the numbers say
Model vs market37% vs 20%
Consensus3 of 3 analysts
Sharpest angleHarris by Submission — 1 of 1 method calls
Recommendation
Back Harris @ $4.90 · fair $2.72
+80% EDGE
Analyst tape
every extracted call on this fight
MN
MMA Lock of the Night picks Carlston Harris
“You can get Carlston Harris by submission at plus”
SC
System Capping picks Carlston Harris VALUE
“Carlston Harris is live at 280. Great valueer.”
UT
UFC Predictions Tracker picks Carlston Harris
Recent form
last five, most recent first
Matthews22-8
W
Harris
May '26
L
Magny
Sep '25
W
Njokuani
Jul '25
W
Prado
Feb '25
W
Rowe
Jun '24
Harris19-7
L
Matthews
May '26
L
Ponzinibbio
Jan '25
L
Williams
May '24
W
Wells
Aug '23
W
Gooden
Mar '23