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UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo
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SY DF Yadong vs FigueiredoMain Card · Bantamweight ZM AM Mingyang vs MenifieldMain Card · Light Heavyweight SP TT Pavlovich vs TeixeiraMain Card · Heavyweight KA CS Asakura vs SmothermanMain Card · Bantamweight AP SM Perez vs MudaerjiMain Card · Flyweight LY LD Yi-sak vs DiasPreliminary Card · Middleweight DM JS Meng vs SouzaPreliminary Card · Welterweight AQ CH Qileng vs HaddonPreliminary Card · Bantamweight AH XJ Hill vs JingnanPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight LL JA Lookboonmee vs AmorimPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight JM CH Matthews vs HarrisMain Card · Welterweight RT LG Tsuruya vs GurulePreliminary Card · Bantamweight ZK RV Kangjie vs VeraPreliminary Card · Featherweight
BEST PRICE We back Harris over Matthews · Welterweight Our fair value$2.72 Bet Right pays above fair $4.90
Where to back Harris best price · region · EV vs fair $2.72
US Caesars $4.80 +76%
UK LeoVegas $4.70 +73%
EU Pinnacle $4.78 +76%
AU Bet Right $4.90 +80%
Consensus3 picks · conf 10/99
Matthews 0
3 Harris
pick Matthews
How it endsmethod calls · Harris · crowd line
Submission 1 $2.72
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Matthews 22-8 VS 19-7 Harris
5'11" height 6'0"
170 lb weight 170 lb
73" reach 76"
31 age 38
Orthodox stance Orthodox
5.9 strikes landed / min 3.2
41% striking accuracy 49%
2.6 strikes absorbed / min 2.7
47% striking defence 52%
2.2 takedowns / 15 min 2.0
40% takedown accuracy 29%
50% takedown defence 55%
1.8 submissions / 15 min 0.8
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market37% vs 20%
Consensus3 of 3 analysts
Sharpest angleHarris by Submission — 1 of 1 method calls
Recommendation Back Harris @ $4.90 · fair $2.72 +80% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
MN MMA Lock of the Night picks Carlston Harris “You can get Carlston Harris by submission at plus”
SC System Capping picks Carlston Harris VALUE “Carlston Harris is live at 280. Great valueer.”
UT UFC Predictions Tracker picks Carlston Harris
Recent form last five, most recent first
Matthews22-8
W Harris Decision · R3 May '26
L Magny Submission · R3 Sep '25
W Njokuani Submission · R1 Jul '25
W Prado Decision · R3 Feb '25
W Rowe Decision · R3 Jun '24
Harris19-7
L Matthews Decision · R3 May '26
L Ponzinibbio KO/TKO · R3 Jan '25
L Williams KO/TKO · R1 May '24
W Wells Submission · R3 Aug '23
W Gooden Decision · R3 Mar '23