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UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo
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SY DF Yadong vs FigueiredoMain Card · Bantamweight ZM AM Mingyang vs MenifieldMain Card · Light Heavyweight SP TT Pavlovich vs TeixeiraMain Card · Heavyweight KA CS Asakura vs SmothermanMain Card · Bantamweight AP SM Perez vs MudaerjiMain Card · Flyweight LY LD Yi-sak vs DiasPreliminary Card · Middleweight DM JS Meng vs SouzaPreliminary Card · Welterweight AQ CH Qileng vs HaddonPreliminary Card · Bantamweight AH XJ Hill vs JingnanPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight LL JA Lookboonmee vs AmorimPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight JM CH Matthews vs HarrisMain Card · Welterweight RT LG Tsuruya vs GurulePreliminary Card · Bantamweight ZK RV Kangjie vs VeraPreliminary Card · Featherweight
BEST PRICE We back Asakura over Smotherman · Bantamweight Our fair value$1.29 Neds pays above fair $1.40
Where to back Asakura best price · region · EV vs fair $1.29
US BetOnline.ag $1.39 +8%
UK Unibet (UK) $1.38 +7%
EU Coolbet $1.38 +7%
AU Neds $1.40 +8%
Consensus98 picks · conf 84/99
Asakura 89
9 Smotherman
Y1PTSM pick Asakura
How it endsmethod calls · Asakura · crowd line
KO/TKO 22 $1.64
Submission 1 $36.17
Decision 5 $7.23
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Asakura 21-6 VS 12-6 Smotherman
5'8" height 5'9"
126 lb weight 136 lb
69" reach 69"
32 age 28
Orthodox stance Orthodox
0.0 strikes landed / min 6.2
0% striking accuracy 37%
0.0 strikes absorbed / min 4.6
0% striking defence 60%
0.0 takedowns / 15 min 0.0
0% takedown accuracy 0%
0% takedown defence 50%
0.0 submissions / 15 min 0.0
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market77% vs 71%
Consensus89 of 98 analysts
Sharpest angleAsakura by KO/TKO — 22 of 28 method calls
Recommendation Back Asakura @ $1.40 · fair $1.29 +8% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
TH ThatBettingDude picks Kai Asakura “So give me Kai Asakura to win by KO. That's going to be the pick in the play.”
SD Santino DeFranco picks Kai Asakura “I have Kai Asakura here.” $1.38
HN Hidden Source News picks Cameron Smotherman “My pick is Cameron Smotherman.”
WP Winning In The Shadows Bets and Predictions picks Kai Asakura “I will be in on Kai Asakura.”
CA CanIBeCoopy picks Kai Asakura “Kai Asakura needs to get a win here and I think he will get a win here”
MT Matthew Tennant picks Kai Asakura “Give me Kai Asakura in this matchup.”
CC Cage Conversations picks Kai Asakura “With this one, I'm going to go ahead and take Kaio Sakaro by submission.”
MN MMA Lock of the Night picks Kai Asakura “I think Kai Asakura will win by knockout, which you can get at plus 130” $2.30
TH THATMMABRO picks Kai Asakura “we should see a round two TKO uh by Mr. Kai Asakura.”
BI Big_J_MMA picks Kai Asakura “give me a kaya Sakura by round one uh KO... Kai Asakura will be just fine... catch Cameron Cameron Smotherman and put him out”
SC System Capping picks Kai Asakura “I expect Kai Asakura to get the job done here.”
AS AJ Let's Talk Sports picks Kai Asakura “Pick Kai Asakura by decision or late TKO.” $1.32
Recent form last five, most recent first
Asakura21-6
W Smotherman KO/TKO · R1 May '26
L Elliott Submission · R2 Aug '25
L Pantoja Submission · R2 Dec '24
Smotherman12-6
L Asakura KO/TKO · R1 May '26
L Simón Decision · R3 Jun '25
L Sidey Decision · R3 May '25
W Hadley Decision · R3 Oct '24