MMA Prophecy
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UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady
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SB LE Brady vs EdwardsMain Card · Welterweight CU JB Ulberg vs BłachowiczMain Card · Light Heavyweight KH GN Holland vs NelsonMain Card · Welterweight AT MM Thainara vs McCannMain Card · Women'S Strawweight CD JV Duncan vs VucenicMain Card · Lightweight NW MC Wood vs CharrièreMain Card · Featherweight CP JH Padilla vs HerbertPreliminary Card · Lightweight LK FS Kavanagh vs SantosPreliminary Card · Flyweight MT MP Tybura vs ParkinPreliminary Card · Heavyweight CD AP Duncan vs PulyaevPreliminary Card · Middleweight SB PT Bannon vs TomarPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight CL NF Loughran vs FletcherPreliminary Card · Bantamweight KF GK Fernandes vs KutateladzePreliminary Card · Lightweight
BEST PRICE We back Holland over Nelson · Welterweight Our fair value$1.91 TAB pays above fair $2.20
Where to back Holland best price · region · EV vs fair $1.91
US BetRivers $2.04 +7%
UK Betway $2.10 +10%
EU NordicBet $2.12 +11%
AU TAB $2.20 +15%
Consensus66 picks · conf 74/99
Holland 42
24 Nelson
eP9DBM pick Holland
How it endsmethod calls · Holland · crowd line
KO/TKO 24 $2.63
Submission 3 $21.04
Decision 4 $15.78
None 2 $31.56
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Holland 28-15 VS 19-5-1 Nelson
6'3" height 5'11"
170 lb weight 170 lb
81" reach 72"
33 age 37
Orthodox stance Switch
4.2 strikes landed / min 1.8
49% striking accuracy 61%
3.2 strikes absorbed / min 3.0
50% striking defence 49%
0.8 takedowns / 15 min 1.9
38% takedown accuracy 59%
54% takedown defence 66%
0.6 submissions / 15 min 1.0
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market52% vs 45%
Consensus42 of 66 analysts
Sharpest angleHolland by KO/TKO — 24 of 33 method calls
Recommendation Back Holland @ $2.20 · fair $1.91 +15% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
WP We Want Picks picks Kevin Holland VALUE “I picked Kevin Holland to win this fight”
OS Once Upon A Slugfest picks Gunnar Nelson VALUE “my subscribers and I went with Ghana Nelson.” $1.82
CP Capper Comparison Picks picks Gunnar Nelson “I got Gunnar Nelson play I'm Gunnar Nelson by default”
ME MMA EXPERTS picks Kevin Holland VALUE “I'm going to pick Kevin Kevin Holland by knockout” $1.94
SL SUPER LUTAS picks Gunnar Nelson VALUE “vitória do Gunnar Nelson contra o Kevin Holland”
UG UFC Genie picks Kevin Holland VALUE “I've got two and a half units on the money line” $2.10
CR Capitán Rafucho picks Kevin Holland VALUE “Kevin Holland by knockout”
UF Ultimate fight fan picks Gunnar Nelson “backing Gunnar Nelson to beat Kevin Holland”
WP We Want Picks picks Kevin Holland VALUE “I am going to pick Kevin hen in 2025”
TM The Random Of MMA picks Gunnar Nelson “I'm actually GNA go with Gunnar Gunnar Nelson by decision or I better yet maybe even a submission”
MM Money Mitch MMA picks Kevin Holland VALUE “I'm choosing Kevin Holland to win”
ME MMA EXPERTS picks Kevin Holland VALUE “Kevin Holland will do it.”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Holland28-15
W Brown Decision · R3 Apr '26
L Malott Decision · R3 Oct '25
L Rodriguez Decision · R3 Jul '25
W Luque Submission · R2 Jun '25
W Nelson Decision · R3 Mar '25
Nelson19-5-1
L Holland Decision · R3 Mar '25
W Barberena Submission · R1 Mar '23
W Sato Decision · R3 Mar '22
L Burns Decision · R3 Sep '19
L Edwards Decision · R3 Mar '19