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UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady
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BEST PRICE We back Padilla over Herbert · Lightweight Our fair value$1.79 SportsBet pays above fair $1.96
Where to back Padilla best price · region · EV vs fair $1.79
US FanDuel $1.96 +10%
UK Betway $1.91 +7%
EU Betsson $1.95 +9%
AU SportsBet $1.96 +10%
Consensus56 picks · conf 71/99
Padilla 38
18 Herbert
TPYBEO pick Padilla
How it endsmethod calls · Padilla · crowd line
KO/TKO 7 $4.09
Submission 5 $5.72
Decision 4 $7.15
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Padilla 0-0 VS 13-6-1 Herbert
5'9" height 6'1"
155 lb weight 156 lb
74" reach 77"
30 age 38
Orthodox stance Orthodox
5.8 strikes landed / min 3.2
61% striking accuracy 42%
4.9 strikes absorbed / min 3.4
46% striking defence 52%
3.3 takedowns / 15 min 0.5
75% takedown accuracy 23%
0% takedown defence 59%
1.1 submissions / 15 min 0.0
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market56% vs 51%
Consensus38 of 56 analysts
Sharpest anglePadilla by KO/TKO — 7 of 16 method calls
Recommendation Back Padilla @ $1.96 · fair $1.79 +10% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
WP We Want Picks picks Chris Padilla VALUE “Jacob's Underdog lock of the week also won... this week plus one0 Chris Padilla” $2.10
OS Once Upon A Slugfest picks Chris Padilla VALUE “My official pick is Chris Badila.” $1.91
ME MMA EXPERTS picks Jai Herbert VALUE “I'm going Chris Padilla”
ME MMA EXPERTS picks Chris Padilla VALUE “I'm going Chris Padilla” $1.91
CA ContraGolpe - Analisa picks Chris Padilla VALUE “Vou simples na vitória do Chris Padilla”
MB MMA BG picks Chris Padilla VALUE “My prediction, Chris Padilla decision”
FF Fight Fiend Forecast picks Chris Padilla VALUE “give me Chris Padilla Jai Herbert is the less durable fighter he's the slower fighter at this point in both of their careers in my opinion and the aura of Taco p IDE is just on another level this guy is a guy I can trust and he's profited for me in the past”
CT Combat Sports Today picks Chris Padilla “Chris Padilla should win this what's Chris Padilla by sub?”
WT WagerTalk TV: Sports Picks and Betting Tips picks Jai Herbert VALUE “So, I'm thinking John Herbert minus 110.” $1.91
UF Ultimate fight fan picks Chris Padilla “Chris Padilla could beat Joe Herbert”
WP We Want Picks picks Chris Padilla VALUE “I think Chris Padilla can win this fight I think he does win this fight”
FV Fight IQ with Von picks Chris Padilla VALUE “Give me Chris Padilla Taco”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Padilla0-0
W Bonfim KO/TKO · R2 Nov '25
W Herbert Decision · R3 Mar '25
W Zhu KO/TKO · R2 Sep '24
W Llontop Submission · R1 Apr '24
Herbert13-6-1
W Nallo KO/TKO · R1 Apr '26
L Padilla Decision · R3 Mar '25
W Bedoya Decision · R3 Aug '24
L Ziam Decision · R3 Jul '23
W Nelson Decision · R3 Jul '22