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BEST PRICE We back Fernandes over Kutateladze · Lightweight Our fair value$3.95 NordicBet pays above fair $4.60
Where to back Fernandes best price · region · EV vs fair $3.95
US BetRivers $4.40 +11%
UK Grosvenor $4.40 +11%
EU NordicBet $4.60 +16%
AU TABtouch $4.40 +11%
Consensus37 picks · conf 59/99
Fernandes 12
25 Kutateladze
WLPUAW pick Fernandes
How it endsmethod calls · Fernandes · crowd line
KO/TKO 3 $7.91
Decision 2 $11.86
None 1 $23.72
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Fernandes 11-2 VS 13-4 Kutateladze
5'9" height 5'11"
155 lb weight 155 lb
73" reach 72"
31 age 34
Orthodox stance Orthodox
2.8 strikes landed / min 4.0
64% striking accuracy 45%
4.9 strikes absorbed / min 4.0
57% striking defence 57%
2.8 takedowns / 15 min 0.8
45% takedown accuracy 20%
58% takedown defence 79%
0.9 submissions / 15 min 0.0
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market25% vs 22%
Consensus12 of 37 analysts
Sharpest angleFernandes by KO/TKO — 3 of 6 method calls
Recommendation Back Fernandes @ $4.60 · fair $3.95 +16% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
WP We Want Picks picks Kauê Fernandes VALUE “I picked Caillou”
TD The Rambling Dad picks Kauê Fernandes VALUE $4.50
OS Once Upon A Slugfest picks Guram Kutateladze VALUE “my subscribers and I went with um Guram Gutz.” $1.23
ME MMA EXPERTS picks Guram Kutateladze VALUE “I say Guram Kutateladze handles business on his way to a unanimous decision” $1.22
SL SUPER LUTAS picks Guram Kutateladze VALUE “Vitória de Guram Kutateladze contra Kauê Fernandes”
WM Wade MMA picks Kauê Fernandes “I'm going to go I think he's going to win the first two rounds lose the third round”
TM The Random Of MMA picks Guram Kutateladze “I'm actually G to go with Guram Kutateladze um never heard of this guy before but I just have a feeling he was going to win um he's one of those like Eastern Asian guys or I don't know something like that I'm just going to go with him by a knockout”
ME MMA EXPERTS picks Kauê Fernandes VALUE “You think the Jan Błachowicz could cause an upset? Possibly.”
ME MMA EXPERTS picks Guram Kutateladze “I'll say Guram Kutateladze does pull through and get a win.” $1.22
EM El Cuarto del MMA picks Guram Kutateladze “nuestra predicción será que Guran Kutateladze termina llevándose esta pelea por una decisión o quizás hasta por un nocout”
MI MikeyMMA picks Guram Kutateladze “I think Guram Kutateladze is going to win this uh just CU he has the wrestling upside and what is a pretty close fight and um yeah that's what I think about this one”
ER Eros picks Guram Kutateladze “we're GNA go with the Guram Kutateladze”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Fernandes11-2
W Hardwick KO/TKO · R1 Sep '25
W Kutateladze Decision · R3 Mar '25
W Yahya KO/TKO · R1 Aug '24
L Diakiese Decision · R3 Nov '23
Kutateladze13-4
L Fernandes Decision · R3 Mar '25
W Vucenic Decision · R3 Aug '24
L Brener KO/TKO · R3 Jul '23
L Ismagulov Decision · R3 Jun '22
W Gamrot Decision · R3 Oct '20