MMA Prophecy
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UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr.
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AP KJ Pereira vs Jr.Main Card · Light Heavyweight JP RP Peña vs PenningtonMain Card · Women'S Bantamweight MB JA Bautista vs AldoMain Card · Bantamweight RD KH Dolidze vs HollandMain Card · Middleweight KH KV Harrison vs VieiraMain Card · Women'S Bantamweight JB ST Buckley vs ThompsonPreliminary Card · Welterweight IL MR Lucindo vs RodriguezPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight AH AH Hernandez vs HubbardPreliminary Card · Lightweight CA IP Almeida vs PotieriaPreliminary Card · Middleweight RS OP Spann vs PreuxEarly Preliminary Card · Light Heavyweight TP CE Pennington vs EsparzaEarly Preliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight CM TM McGee vs MeansEarly Preliminary Card · Welterweight
BEST PRICE We back Peña over Pennington · Women'S Bantamweight Our fair value$2.33 Coolbet pays above fair $2.45
Where to back Peña best price · region · EV vs fair $2.33
US DraftKings $2.42 +4%
UK Virgin Bet $2.33 -0%
EU Coolbet $2.45 +5%
AU PointsBet (AU) $2.40 +3%
Consensus33 picks · conf 56/99
Peña 16
17 Pennington
MMPKFA pick Peña
How it endsmethod calls · Peña · crowd line
KO/TKO 1 $18.66
Submission 1 $18.66
Decision 5 $3.73
None 1 $18.66
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Peña 13-5 VS 16-10 Pennington
5'6" height 5'7"
135 lb weight 135 lb
69" reach 67"
36 age 37
Orthodox stance Orthodox
3.2 strikes landed / min 4.1
44% striking accuracy 49%
2.5 strikes absorbed / min 3.3
57% striking defence 61%
1.8 takedowns / 15 min 0.8
56% takedown accuracy 27%
23% takedown defence 62%
0.8 submissions / 15 min 0.6
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market43% vs 41%
Consensus16 of 33 analysts
Sharpest anglePeña by Decision — 5 of 8 method calls
Recommendation Back Peña @ $2.45 · fair $2.33 +5% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
ST Stephen Wonderboy Thompson picks Raquel Pennington “I'm going with Raquel Pennington all”
IL IBG Live picks Raquel Pennington “if I I'd pick Raquel Pennington ... yeah I got Raquel Pennington by sub round”
EM Elijah House MMA picks Julianna Peña “Julianna Peña will have unanimous Julianna Peña wins this”
M👊 MMA.I. - UFC Predictions & Simulations 👊🎮 picks Julianna Peña “Julianna Peña is predicted to claim the title winning three out of five simulations with three decision victories”
CS Calf Kick Sports picks Raquel Pennington “I think Raquel Pennington is going to win”
KU Kunath picks Julianna Peña VALUE “I don't see a situation where Julianna Peña isn't in the optimal lineup at 7,800”
DS Dynes Sports picks Julianna Peña “I like Julianna Peña”
DN DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Raquel Pennington VALUE “I like Raquel Pennington here I think she has some of the highest upside on the entire card believe it or not and she's only 8,400 so and even in a loss like for cash games like I think she's a great play cuz even in a loss I see her scoring very well”
DR DRYWALL picks Julianna Peña VALUE “I don't think she's taking anything seriously uh she wants to get a [__] Playboy magazine if you want to hear our real thoughts on this fight watch press conference Kayla Harrison Harrison says it all”
PR Premium-Picks picks Julianna Peña “give me Raquel Pennington”
LM Livid Larry MMA picks Raquel Pennington “I think Raquel Pennington will defend her title”
M👊 MMA.I. - UFC Predictions & Simulations 👊🎮 picks Julianna Peña “Julianna Peña is predicted to claim the title winning three out of five simulations with three decision victories”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Peña13-5
L Harrison Submission · R2 Jun '25
W Pennington Decision · R5 Oct '24
L Nunes Decision · R5 Jul '22
W Nunes Submission · R2 Dec '21
W McMann Submission · R3 Jan '21
Pennington16-10
L Peña Decision · R5 Oct '24
W Silva Decision · R5 Jan '24
W Vieira Decision · R3 Jan '23
W Ladd Decision · R3 Apr '22
W Chiasson Submission · R2 Dec '21