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UFC on ESPN: Cannonier vs. Borralho
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BEST PRICE We back Borralho over Cannonier · Middleweight Our fair value$1.42 Coolbet pays above fair $1.46
Where to back Borralho best price · region · EV vs fair $1.42
US DraftKings $1.41 -1%
UK Paddy Power $1.40 -2%
EU Coolbet $1.46 +3%
AU TAB $1.44 +1%
Consensus15 picks · conf 36/99
Borralho 11
4 Cannonier
BMMWWA pick Borralho
How it endsmethod calls · Borralho · crowd line
KO/TKO 3 $3.32
Submission 1 $9.95
Decision 3 $3.32
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Borralho 17-2 VS 17-8 Cannonier
6'1" height 5'11"
185 lb weight 186 lb
75" reach 78"
33 age 42
Southpaw stance Switch
3.0 strikes landed / min 4.5
48% striking accuracy 50%
2.2 strikes absorbed / min 4.4
55% striking defence 56%
1.9 takedowns / 15 min 0.4
29% takedown accuracy 46%
56% takedown defence 62%
0.2 submissions / 15 min 0.0
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market70% vs 68%
Consensus11 of 15 analysts
Sharpest angleBorralho by KO/TKO — 3 of 7 method calls
Recommendation Back Borralho @ $1.46 · fair $1.42 +3% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
TD The Rambling Dad picks Caio Borralho “I'm going with Caio Borralho as well”
TM The MMA-Holes picks Caio Borralho “I think Caio Borralho is GNA with Jared Cannonier”
CP Capper Comparison Picks picks Jared Cannonier “I'm gonna take Jared Cannonier”
RA RotoGrinders - Daily Fantasy Sports Advice picks Jared Cannonier VALUE “that I will be playing it have ranked underdogs to play that Jared Cannonier”
WP We Want Picks picks Caio Borralho VALUE “I think Caio Borralho wins this fight”
WP We Want Picks picks Jared Cannonier VALUE “Kyle baralo less than 60 and a half”
FI FightOwl picks Caio Borralho “I think it's the right time for Caio Borralho and I think he will get it done”
BE BetSam picks Caio Borralho VALUE “give me Kaio Bayo here man I think he gets it done”
HB Half The Battle picks Jared Cannonier VALUE “I'mma pick him uh to come out here and get this upset” $3.05
OS Once Upon A Slugfest picks Caio Borralho VALUE “my subscribers and I went with um Caio Borralho”
TP The Darce Podcast picks Jared Cannonier VALUE “I'm taking lead off after Dan hooker cash you know who I'm going with I'm going with Robert Frey Valentine”
WM Walk The Line MMA picks Caio Borralho “I'm going to pick Danny Silva to win the fight” $1.43
Recent form last five, most recent first
Borralho17-2
W Ridder Decision · R3 Mar '26
L Imavov Decision · R5 Sep '25
W Cannonier Decision · R5 Aug '24
W Craig KO/TKO · R2 May '24
W Magomedov Decision · R3 Nov '23
Cannonier17-8
L Page Decision · R3 Aug '25
W Rodrigues KO/TKO · R4 Feb '25
L Borralho Decision · R5 Aug '24
L Imavov KO/TKO · R4 Jun '24
W Vettori Decision · R5 Jun '23