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Spivac vs TyburaMain Card · Heavyweight
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Kazama vs GrigoriouMain Card · Bantamweight
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BEST PRICE
Prophecy read
Diniz v Williams
Heavyweight
Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
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Tale of the tape
the matchup, side by side
Diniz 9-2
VS
10-2 Williams
6'4"
height
—
257 lb
weight
—
80"
reach
—
35
age
36
Orthodox
stance
Orthodox
4.1
strikes landed / min
2.7
40%
striking accuracy
48%
3.4
strikes absorbed / min
2.1
58%
striking defence
55%
2.6
takedowns / 15 min
4.2
44%
takedown accuracy
48%
54%
takedown defence
100%
0.1
submissions / 15 min
0.2
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation
Locked our pick, the fair line & EV are Pro-only
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Analyst tape
every extracted call on this fight
TD
The Rambling Dad picks Karl Williams
“I'm going with Karl Williams as well think um but I feel like Karl Williams definitely Karl Williams for me as well”
The Rambling Dad picks Karl Williams
“I'm going with Karl Williams as well think um but I feel like Karl Williams definitely Karl Williams for me as well”
WP
We Want Picks picks Karl Williams VALUE
“Karl Williams is the pick”
We Want Picks picks Karl Williams VALUE
“Karl Williams is the pick”
WP
We Want Picks picks Karl Williams VALUE
“I think Karl Williams can dictate that wrestling Pace almost immediately and we're going to get a boring heavyweight fight but we should get a win and he's only minus 205”
$1.49
We Want Picks picks Karl Williams VALUE
“I think Karl Williams can dictate that wrestling Pace almost immediately and we're going to get a boring heavyweight fight but we should get a win and he's only minus 205”
$1.49
PR
Premium-Picks picks Karl Williams VALUE
“give me Karl Williams by being the much more well-rounded athlete here”
Premium-Picks picks Karl Williams VALUE
“give me Karl Williams by being the much more well-rounded athlete here”
DN
DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Karl Williams VALUE
“I think Karl Williams if he's winning this fight I think it's a decision where he's able to get a takedown or two in each and every single round”
DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Karl Williams VALUE
“I think Karl Williams if he's winning this fight I think it's a decision where he's able to get a takedown or two in each and every single round”
EB
ESPN BET picks Karl Williams VALUE
“Carl Williams at minus 210 this might be my favorite play of the night we've been on a roll here Jhonata Diniz we know is a good KO artist but he is a negative white belt and Jiu-Jitsu add in taked down defense Williams is going to put him on his back keep him there all night”
$1.48
ESPN BET picks Karl Williams VALUE
“Carl Williams at minus 210 this might be my favorite play of the night we've been on a roll here Jhonata Diniz we know is a good KO artist but he is a negative white belt and Jiu-Jitsu add in taked down defense Williams is going to put him on his back keep him there all night”
$1.48
UP
UCF Podcast picks Jhonata Diniz
“I'm going to go with Jhonata Diniz just just on a that will happen so Jhonata Diniz”
UCF Podcast picks Jhonata Diniz
“I'm going to go with Jhonata Diniz just just on a that will happen so Jhonata Diniz”
MA
MMA Attic picks Jhonata Diniz VALUE
“the model thinks that Jhonata Diniz has a betting chance of winning we expect that Carl's chin will be tested early and if it holds up he should win a decision”
MMA Attic picks Jhonata Diniz VALUE
“the model thinks that Jhonata Diniz has a betting chance of winning we expect that Carl's chin will be tested early and if it holds up he should win a decision”
TG
THE MMA GURU picks Jhonata Diniz
“I'm going to go with Jhonata Diniz”
THE MMA GURU picks Jhonata Diniz
“I'm going to go with Jhonata Diniz”
UG
UFC GamblingAddicts picks Karl Williams
“give me kyl Karl Williams”
UFC GamblingAddicts picks Karl Williams
“give me kyl Karl Williams”
UG
UFC Genie picks Karl Williams
“Carl Williams by decision”
UFC Genie picks Karl Williams
“Carl Williams by decision”
Recent form
last five, most recent first
Diniz9-2
L
Pinto
Oct '25
W
Hines
Jun '25
L
Tybura
Nov '24
W
Williams
Aug '24
W
Lane
Apr '24
Williams10-2
L
Diniz
Aug '24
W
Tafa
Mar '24
W
Sherman
May '23
W
Brzeski
Mar '23